Systems and Climate Change

All systems, everywhere, have levels and flows.  A system has at least one feedback loop.  

An example of a system is a bathtub.  The faucet is an inflow, the tub is an accumulation with a level of water, and the drain is the outflow.  The rate of outflow depends on the level of water in the tub. Based on Bernoulli's equation & Torricelli's Law, the rate of flow is proportional to the height of the water column over the drain hole.

Symbols

Cloud defines system boundary

Pipe contains flow of material

Arrow head shows direction of flow

Accumulation contains material with level

Single line with arrow head moves information to control flow rate

Examples

Inflow	Level	Outflow
Water thru faucet	Bathtub	Drain
Intravenous Drug	Human body	Elimination
Affirmations	Self-Esteem	Self-Talk

Climate Change

Sunlight reaches the surfaces of the earth and warms the land and oceans.  Some light is reflected back into space and some reflected light warms the atmosphere.  The land and oceans radiate energy back into the atmosphere, also called heat.  The radiant energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by heat trapping gases such as aerosols, methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This is called the greenhouse effect that increases the average temperature of the atmosphere.

As the inflow of CO2 to the atmosphere has continued for decades and increased over time, the radiant energy trapped in the atmosphere has increased.  We measure the result as the average global temperature of the atmosphere over time.

As the temperature of the lower level of the atmosphere increases, the radiant energy dissipates into the upper layers of the atmosphere and eventually out into space.  As the inflow of CO2 increases, the outflow rate increases to the upper levels of the atmosphere and into space.  However, over time the increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more radiant energy and the average global temperature continues to increase over time.

Equations

Based on the Stephan-Boltzmann equation the rate of outflow in the energy from the atmosphere is proportional to the temperature of the atmosphere.  The equation ( j = ⍺ * T^4) means the energy in joules equals a constant times the temperature to the fourth power.

Now we can link the parts together, add the many converters and constants needed for the exact calculations, and we have a complex system with multiple feedback loops.

Imagine a molecule of CO2 released in China on January 1, 2018.  In 2028, that molecule will finally reach an equilibrium temperature after absorbing radiant energy for years.  This means that the consequences of greenhouse gases are distant in time and space from the emissions.

Extending the Model

Two extensions of the model are critical to discuss.  One is adding layers to the atmosphere instead of only one atmosphere as shown in the model above.  Second, adding the oceans to the model, so we can calculate the change in atmospheric temperature over time as the oceans absorb radiant energy from the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing 80 to 90 percent of the increase in radiant energy added to the atmosphere.  Water has a higher heat capacity than air so the oceans can absorb up to 1,000 times more energy than the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing CO and CO2 gases.  The chemical changes in the ocean then lead to changes in the acidity of the water.  The life in the oceans can not evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes in the acidity.

These two changes in the oceans, increased heat and acidity, are slowly killing life in the oceans.

Conclusion

Causality means connecting the root cause with the eventual consequences over time and space.  The discussion above shows how each molecule of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, increases the global average temperature and kills life in the oceans.  The increases in atmospheric temperature are not evenly distributed and the consequences for humans are not evenly distributed.