Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Supreme Court Politics

Source: National Review, Justice Scalia’s 2014 opinion explains the rancorous battle to replace him,  by JOSH BLACKMAN, February 15, 2016

Blackman wrote, “The monastic Supreme Court is formally isolated from the political process in all respects, but one — the appointment process.”

A myth conservatives perpetuate is the removal of politics from every aspect of society.  They advocate the removal of politics from the economy by reducing government interference. They advocate the removal of politics from Supreme Court opinions.

This denial of politics in society begs the question: What do we mean by “politics”?  Conservatives want an authoritarian approach to policy and governance.  However, in a democratic society politics is the process of finding the balance between individual rights and group rights.  Instead of hidden assumptions, values and goals, democracy requires transparency and participation by society in decisions.

The politics of denial advocated by conservatives means individual rights are more important than group rights.  Based on their religious beliefs, offering a vision of individual freedom premised on absolute freedom of conscience for isolated and autonomous individuals, the Gospels ignored the reality of society.  Conservatives use religious justifications for their focus on individualism and denial of groups rights.

Denial of politics supports the conservative authoritarian agenda for dominance of society. Blackman’s narrow definition of politics applies as if society does not exist.  He writes as if the politics between the President and the Senate or Congress are all that matter without consequences to society.  As if each entity were individuals and their decisions did not have consequences for society. Conservatives would argue that no one without a constitutional law degree would understand what the Founding Fathers meant.  The logic and reasoning of conservatives justifies their conclusions.


Once we recognize the complex interdependence of our collective existence, we can no longer justify an unlimited freedom to act solely according to one’s own, too often self-serving conscience.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Market Instability by Trump

Trump’s real estate empire represents one of the worst excesses of a market economy when land becomes a commodity and landlords charge rent beyond the capacity of millions of people to pay.  Trump represents someone free of politics as promised by a fully self-regulating market society.  Trump represents the forces of laissez-faire that justify an ever expanding process of commodification (of land, labor and money) by invoking the utopian promise of a fully self-regulating market society free of politics.

Democrats on the other side, represent multiple social movements mobilized in opposition to defend society against market domination of land, labor and money, by establishing institutional protections.  Democrats are committed to democratically-motivated procedures to manage markets.

Without a deeper paradigm shift away from degrading land, labor and money in the pursuit of profit, to support an obsolete market mentality, society is now on the precipice of disaster due to climate change.  The market economy allowed the exploitation of land for natural resources for energy without the benefit of institutional protections limiting the consequences to society that we now face in 2016 and decades into the future.


The only way to preserve democratic institutions over the long term is to expand their capacity to protect citizens from market-driven instability.

Monday, March 14, 2016

Dear Isabel and Natalia, March 14, 2016

This letter is about your future self. This letter does not pretend to predict your future.  Nor do I claim to have any psychic powers or vision of the future that comes from dreams.  Our feelings of uncertainty about the future sometimes get in the way of our thinking clearly about what we can do in the present to prepare for the future.

Science has a definition of uncertainty that is different from when we have a feeling of uncertainty.  The former is a statistical method and the latter a fleeting feeling that too often leads to anxiety.  This letter is not intended to increase anxiety but to identify hope.

Generations

We do have the certainty of demographics: how many and when people were born. Events over time influence people, and groups of people influence events.  We refer to these groups of people, born at certain times, as generations.

The study of generations provides a solid foundation of statistics, events and consequences over time that we weave into a pattern.  This description of a pattern does not result from direct causation, like when authoritarian action has specific consequences.  The pattern of generations results from systemic causality analyzed over time. (1)

For example, Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960) are well known as a generation of idealists.  There are differences between first half and second half of the Boomer generation.  The later Boomers flocked to the evangelical churches that appealed to their ideals. This large evangelical group has influenced the policies of conservative politicians.

To keep this letter short and to the point, I’ll refer you to the books by Strauss and Howe, “Generations” (2) and “The Fourth Turning” (3) for further details and study.

The Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis.  A 20-year era, America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity.  Prior Fourth Turning Crisis Climaxes were the American Revolution and Civil War.  


America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

What is your role?

As a member of the Millennial Generation, you will have the opportunity to become part of the next Hero generation: the generation that gets credit for saving America from a Great Crisis.   What that means to you personally depends on what you volunteer to do during the Great Transformation.

When?

According to Neil Howe, co-author of “The Fourth Turning”, the present crisis era began September 2008 when the global Dow was in free fall, banks were failing, money markets froze shut, and business owners held their breath.  You probably don’t remember because Isa was 9 and Natalia was 7 years old at the time.

What’s Next?

Writing now, March 2016, we are entering the eighth year of the crisis era. Howe writes that a Turning lasts on average about 20 years.  That means the current 4th Turning will last from 9/2008 until about 2028.  Can we be more specific?  Yes.

As stated in my blog post reference (4), the 4th Turning has four stages: catalyst, regeneracy, climax and resolution.  We experienced the catalyst in September 2008.  When will the other stages happen and what does that mean for you?

My Advice: Stay in school as long as possible.  Even when the crisis hits hard…and the surprise makes people do stupid things….you should pause, breath, take deep breaths. One possibility is that you decide to leave university before finishing.  Know that you will return after the crisis resolves.  There is hope for returning to school after the crisis resolves.

My Dad was a member of the previous Hero Generation. He stayed in school (1938-1942) but left before the graduation ceremony.  He could have left early, because WWII started in Europe in 1939 and Pearl Harbor was in December 1941. My Dad was in college in Colorado until spring of 1942 in order to complete his classes to finish his degree and graduate.  Then he volunteered for the Army Air Corp.  Many others returned to finish college later.

The Great Transformation

The success of humanity, your generation, and you personally, will feel uncertain. But there is the certainty of a successful conclusion. There are great events yet to be known that will be extremely difficult to overcome.  The timeline is approximate, and the climax and resolution of the crisis era could happen quicker than average, and we might get through by 2025.

The key to your generation’s success and your future will come from your foresight.  Here, I am laying out for you a pattern for the future. You will need to fill in the events as they happen that align with this general timeline.

The Regeneracy

The Regeneracy (2016-2020) will patch over differences, band people together (unity) and build something new.  This stage will begin a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency.  The Regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event.

Howe suggests the Regeneracy will begin in 2016.  We can see this playing out now in 2016 Presidential politics.  Trump represents the past traditions of an authoritarian white male dominating every part of society and making decisions based on direct causation.  Hillary Clinton represents the future of women in leadership roles, when we need unity, mass mobilization, progressive policies, and a clear understanding of systemic causality (1).

Climax and Resolution

The Climax (2020-2024) is a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new.  The peak alignment in 2020 of the generations happens like this: Boomers as the moral leaders (weird right?) with GenX (like your mother and father) as the managers and supervisors. Your generation, the Millennials, are the “soldiers”, the ones on the front lines of the crisis.  My hope is that you pause and finish university, then pick your leadership role sometime after the initial surprise crisis event.

The Resolution (2025-2028) is both a triumphant and tragic conclusion that separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order. You will be part of the Hero Generation, celebrated for the rest of your lives by future generations for saving humanity from certain extinction.

Conclusion

If you follow my advice above, by spring 2020 the Regeneracy stage will be complete, and you will have been partially engaged in the crisis, but you each will remain in school to graduate from university in 2022 and 2023. You’ll then fully engage in action to respond to the Climax and Resolution along with hundreds of millions of other Millennials from every country on Earth.

Everything that I grew up expecting to remain the same in my lifetime will be changing.  For example, people’s behavior will change so that consumerism, buying unsustainable material objects, becomes like a sin and illegal (weird right?). You will have no trouble with the Great Transformation because you will have millions of Millennials like you supporting each other.

Key Advice: look for opportunities to be a leader.  Shortly after joining the Army Air Corp, my Dad got out of being a gunner on airplanes and went to officer candidate school in Australia.  He became a 1st Lieutenant, the leader for a team of African-American soldiers loading and unloading airplanes that followed the island hopping Army towards Japan that ended the war.

You will be offered opportunities to lead.  You’ll be successful at the end of the crisis. Think about your choices, then make a decision and move into a leadership role.

Take Care
Richard Turnock
References:

(1)  The difference between direct causation and systemic causality are discussed in my blog post: http://turnock.blogspot.com/2016/03/why-trump.html

(2)  Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: Morrow, 1991.

(3)  Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. New York: Broadway, 1997


Sunday, March 13, 2016

A Moral Vision for America 2016

Americans create local cultures, rituals, stories, and religious institutions that bind groups together with a strong tribal consciousness.  This supports loyalty, authority, and sanctity of moral foundations.  Americans are tolerant and open to ethnic diversity.  This supports caring about others and fairness for everyone.

Care

Americans feel compassion for our family and friends who are vulnerable or suffering through no fault of their own.  Americans feel compassion for others who are vulnerable or suffering through no fault of their own.  Americans value pragmatic decisions by individuals to care for themselves and their family, and support society providing a safety net for vulnerable populations.

Fairness

Americans are aware of whether people are getting what they deserve, whether things are balanced.  Americans agree society should shun or punish cheaters, whether individuals or businesses.

Liberty

Americans resent restrictions on our choices and actions; we band together to resist bullies.  Americans value our social and political freedoms that are considered to be the entitlement of all members of society.

Loyalty

Americans keep track of who is "us" and who is not; we enjoy tribal rituals, and we hate traitors.  We welcome many cultures with loyalty to their own tribal rituals within our broad society as long as they are loyal to the United States.  However a loyalty oath is not required.  

Authority

Americans value order and hierarchy in organizations; we dislike those who undermine legitimate authority in organizations and sow chaos in society.  Americans balance authority with equality based on treating people in such a way that the outcome for each person can be the same. Americans value laws and rules that prohibit discrimination.  Americans value laws that punish subversion of order in society.

Sanctity
Americans sense that some things must be kept protected from the degradation and profanity of everyday life.  Our protections extend to family, our religions and our natural environment.






Saturday, March 12, 2016

Why Trump?

Moral world-views encapsulated in two very different common forms of family life: 
  • The Nurturant Parent family (progressive) and the Strict Father family (conservative).
  • Responsibility for conservatives means personal responsibility not social responsibility.

First, Trump wins by wining TV insult game.  In strict conservative eyes, that makes him a formidable winning candidate who deserves to be a winning candidate.

Second, Trump represents the top hierarchy in the family.  The hierarchy is: God above Man, Man above Nature, The Disciplined (Strong) above the Undisciplined (Weak), The Rich above the Poor, Employers above Employees, Adults above Children, Western culture above other cultures, Our Country above other countries. The hierarchy extends to: Men above women, Whites above Nonwhites, Christians above nonChristians, Straights above Gays.

Third, Trump represents pragmatic conservatives.  Many small and large business people are pragmatic conservatives. Therefore support Planned Parenthood, social security and medicare, favor high tariffs for imports, eminent domain, 

Fourth, Trump speaks in simple sentences that focus on direct action and one-to-one cause and effect.  Trump’s policy proposals are framed in terms of direct causation.  Empirical research has shown that conservatives tend to reason with direct causation and that progressives have a much easier time reasoning with systemic causation.

Systemic causation has four versions: A chain of direct causes. Interacting direct causes (or chains of direct causes). Feedback loops. And probabilistic causes. Systemic causation thinking is required to explain global warming therefore conservatives are unlikely to understand why we should do anything about climate change.

Fifth, Trump expresses “Political Incorrectness” out loud with everything conservatives feel — with force, aggression, anger, and no shame. Tens of millions of conservatives in America share strict father morality and its moral hierarchy.  They are white men who see themselves as superior to immigrants, nonwhites, women, nonChristians, gays — and people who rely on public assistance.  In other words, they are what liberals would call “bigots.”

The election of President Barack Hussein Obama created outrage among those conservatives, and they refused to see him as a legitimate American (as in the birther movement), much less as a legitimate authority, especially as his liberal views contradicted almost everything else they believe as conservatives.

Sixth, unfortunately, it doesn’t matter if you are promoting Trump or attacking Trump, you are helping Trump.   The more Trump’s views are discussed in the media, the more they are activated and the stronger they get, both in the minds of hardcore conservatives and in the minds of moderate progressives.


The Democratic Party has not been taking seriously many of the reasons for Trump’s support and the range of that support. And the media has not been discussing many of the reasons for Trump’s support. That needs to change.


The Fourth Turning Explained

March 12, 2016

The Fourth Turning has a high demand by society for order as the political supply of order reaches a low.  

There are four stages: catalyst, regeneracy, climax and resolution.

The Fourth Turning is subdivided into stages by four critical events.  The first event, the catalyst, triggers or starts the 4T.  It is “a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.” The second, the regeneracy, marks the beginning of “a new counter-entropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life.” The third, the climax, is “a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new.”  The fourth is the resolution, “a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.”

Current Four Stages of Fourth Turning in 21st Century

Catalyst to start Fourth Turning:  9/2008
The global Dow was in free fall.  Banks were failing.  Money markets froze shut.  Business owners held their breath.

Beginning of Regeneracy: 12/2015
Projected 2020-2025 End of Regeneracy

  • 2015 bilateral climate change agreement between China and US leading up to COP21 Paris agreement.
  • Obama’s leadership established him as a Grey Champion and he will finish out his last months in office continuing to support regeneracy.  Example: Supreme Court Nominee.
  • The 2016 Presidential Election cycle exposes differences between Trump and majority of society.

The Regeneracy:
  1. patch over differences, band together, and build something new
  2. beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency
  3. regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event

Climax:  2020-2025
“a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new.”

Resolution: 2026-2029
“a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.”

References:

9/10/2015

Prior article 2/12/2015

Neil Howe Article from 2012


Friday, March 11, 2016

Social Movements and Market Transformations

Lessons From HIV/AIDS and Climate Change



Hypothesis 1:  Market transformation is more feasible the fewer the number of product lines that have to be targeted by activists.

Hypothesis 2:  Global market transformation is more feasible when product markets are more tightly integrated across borders.

Hypothesis 3:  Market transformation is more feasible in concentrated than fragmented markets.

Hypothesis 4:  The more dependent firms are on rents that derive from social constructions or rules that were recently enacted (for example, their brand equity or globally contested regulatory frameworks), the more likely the product market can be transformed.

China has the largest share of demand for coal and is responsible for nearly 50 percent of total global demand.  China’s actions will have major consequences for the world. While China’s central government has formidable capabilities with respect to regulating coal, it has found it difficult to shift actors to a low carbon path, given that two-thirds of the country’s primary energy demand comes from coal.

For these efforts to succeed and accumulate, advocates will have to change markets for electricity and coal in all major markets responsible for a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions, including China, the European Union, and more of the United States.

market transformation is more feasible in concentrated markets than diffuse ones
In political systems with few veto players, only a few actors need to be convinced to change policy, so change can cascade across the polity quickly if the veto players are persuaded. However, if they are not persuaded, change can be postponed indefinitely.

attack the social legitimacy of fossil fuel profits and their source of rents.

disruptive technologies have been able to penetrate electricity markets:  wind and solar energy are challenging coal fired generation at utility scale.  Social constructs, such as subsidies and regulations, were developed for fossil fuels over the past 100 years.  This is a barrier to the social movement to decarbonize the energy sector in the short-term.


Quantum Politics

21st Century politics are both a particle and a wave. Individuals take actions based on their particular personal values, the abruptness of the need to take action, how immoral they view the present and recent past, and finally whether the action is needed now.  Groups take action when multiple organizations form alliances and become what the media calls a movement.  Movements are waves and individuals are particles in the quantum politics of the 21st Century.

The 192 nation-states at COP-21 in December 2015, assumed the physical boundaries between nations continue to define their rights, duties and obligations.  They postponed action hoping that when the “real” time comes to address climate change, that some innovation, a change in behavior, technological invention or some nonhuman force will appear and magically save the world.  This irresponsibility is embedded in the current international system of governance.  Thus the present system of nation-states assumes a classical political world based on the separation of space and time, and the present political borders on maps.

The climate change movement represents a quantum political world based on space-time as a continuum. When looking down from the International Space Station, there are no political boundaries to see. When considering what action to take, climate change organizations envision future generations of children living in a world that has a stable climate.  A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, of particles and waves, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

Climate change is the vehicle that will transform the world’s governance systems from nation-states global political organizations like the UN with increased rights, duties and obligations.  There are many NGOs that operate without borders dealing more and more with the consequences of climate change due to the lack of action by policy makers.  Multinational corporations are pivoting to deal with the consequences of climate change.  Individuals become refugees or migrants by crossing borders. There are over 60 million people worldwide who are refugees and the number increases daily.  This increased mass of people migrating will destabilize governments and classical politics does not understand how to respond.

The frustration of climate change activists results from the classical political paradigm that separates time and space. Time is never a constraint on policy makers and political borders restrict their laws.  In quantum politics, future generations have value in the present and causality over time must be factored into present policies.  In quantum politics, spatial boundaries do not restrict policies or laws.  Finally, quantum politics is based on space-time as a continuum, a fabric that aligns the threads of the present and future, and that aligns the threads of individuals and groups across borders.

A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, of particles and waves, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

Quantum Entanglement

There are basic mistakes that classical politics makes similar to Albert Einstein’s mistakes about quantum mechanics.  Einstein referred to this physical phenomenon, that suggests objects separated by great distances effect one another, as “spooky action at a distance.” He rejected the possibility, refusing to believe that objects could influence each other no matter how far apart they were.  Classical politics also rejects spooky action at a distance when politicians deny the possibility that CO2 from American industry could influence other countries no matter how far apart the countries are.

Over the past 40 years, the Internet has grown to allow and encourage spooky action at a distance.  Events happen simultaneously in different parts of the world that support dealing with climate change in the present moment by coordinating, collaborating and communicating using the Internet.  Billions of dollars are being spent to upgrade the speed and capacity of the Internet, and make broadband available to everyone, everywhere. Spooky actions at a distance will increase exponentially as bandwidth and speed increase.

In quantum politics, there is quantum entanglement. Air pollution that happens in China effects North America. Political irresponsibility in America effects the worldwide pollution of land, air and water when waste is shipped overseas, when global CO2 levels increase and when oceans acidify. Evidence of spooky action at a distance is documented on the Internet as images, video and audio in ways that older generations making policy decisions now have never experienced.  

A molecule of CO2 released in California changes the global temperature and contributes to drought in India, extreme heat in France and flooding in England. The mistake of present day politicians is to misunderstand the global entanglement of individuals and organizations over time and space.

As the gravity of the situation increases, individuals will feel the impact, abrupt changes will happen, immoral consequences will become visible in the present moment.  As the mass of people effected increases and the situation gets worse, politics will deviate from the present path.  Quantum politics will become more visible and acknowledged by the Millennial Generation (born 1982-2004) as they become the policy makers.

Scalable

Classical politics, without timely action and dependent on boundaries, does not scale well to deal with the global consequences of climate change.  How will we build a low-carbon economy where 9 billion people thrive?  Classical politics denies the question can even be asked.  For decades, corporations were allowed to use propaganda, based on fear, uncertainty and doubt, to persuade the public and politicians that inaction was the best option.  

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires mass re-engineering of our global infrastructure and economic systems that will cause our personal behavior to change.  The scale of the carbon revolution is difficult to imagine until we examine the past 40 years of the digital revolution. The digital revolution scaled up from two people communicating with text between two computers, to billions of people communicating, collaborating and coordinating using images, video and audio through billions of devices.  The proliferation of computers, digital cameras, cellular phones and Internet connections scaled at exponential rates.

Quantum politics scales well to deal with the fabric of space-time resulting from the digital revolution. Quantum politics encourages individuals to take timely action at many locations based on shared values without border restrictions. Quantum politics supports multiple leaders across many organizations growing a movement at an exponential rate. Classical politics will not survive the carbon revolution.

Vision and Values

How might we envision a carbon revolution using the evidence and language of the digital revolution?  First, there are people with foresight who are envisioning a low-carbon economy and acting on that idea.  Visionary leaders like Elon Musk with Solar City, Tesla and a giga factory for batteries.  These visionary leaders are not like the politicians who can not enact polices.  The carbon revolution leaders are emerging to scale up the low-carbon economy.  “Silicon Valley is a mindset, not a location,” stated Reid Hoffman, Co-founder LinkedIn

The individual exceptionalism of the digital economy also values shared learning, a sense of community and collective benefits. This combination of cooperation and competition mashed up is “coopertition.” These values align with the global economy benefiting everyone with a level playing field for competition of ideas and actions.  The carbon revolution has coopertition to deal with the consequences of climate change through adaption and mitigation strategies.  The volume of scientific and engineering research related to a low-carbon economy and dealing with the consequences of climate change is increasing exponentially.  People are actively engaged in the values of the digital revolution and ready to scale those values up in the carbon revolution.

Classical politics excludes individuals and allows corrupt national organizations to control policies.  Quantum politics includes people and organizations that benefit individuals and the global community.

Growth

Growth and capitalism are not good or bad, only people make them so. Exponential growth is found in nature when an unlimited supply of resources are available.  The structure of the 20th Century economy we inherited supports short-term profits and growth in value.  The new low-carbon economy emerging supports growth using capitalism but with vision and values described above that benefit a broader community.

‘Growth-mindset’ was coined by the Stanford University professor of psychology Carol Dweck, and she compares it to the fixed mindset that doesn’t allow for flexibility, growth or failure.

‘Fail-fast’ is another digital revolution mashup.  The growth-mindset combined with fail-fast reveal acceptance of trying, learning from mistakes and failures.  Classical politics kills ambitious plans for the low-carbon economy by fixating on maintaining the past structure supporting fossil fuels. Classical politics allows critics too much rhetoric of fear, uncertainty and doubt about failures.  We can learn from innovation and failures.

Conclusion


Classical politics excludes individuals and allows corrupt national organizations to control policies.  Quantum politics includes people and organizations that benefit individuals and the global community. Climate change is the vehicle that will transform the world’s governance systems from nation-states global political organizations like the UN with increased rights, duties and obligations.  A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

Saturday, March 5, 2016

The Root Cause of Ecological Crisis

When the consequences of climate change accumulate enough, as we approach 2020, we will name the crisis. Public testimony since the 1980s foresaw the particular problems of environmental degradation that reduces the availability of water, food and shelter for people. Hope was that proposed government regulations and industry controls would limit the damage and control the worst consequences.

As of early 2016, what we witnessed argues that basic causes are rooted in combined actions of corporations pushing politicians toward a utopian self-regulating market system.  A free market never existed and never will because the environment and humanity would be destroyed before the fairy tale ended. Making commodities of land, labor and money in the market economy has degraded the environment, increased poverty and inequality, and supported predatory financial institutions.

We argue that by 2020 a surprise reaction to the consequences of climate change will lead to a crisis period of five to ten years unlike any in the history of America or the world.  An ecological disaster and human crisis of global proportions.  As a result, our system of democracy will improve with increased participation and we will embed the market economy within a broader economy, and embed that within the social fabric of society.

Key Measures
  • Ad hoc actions leave uncorrected the root causes of the coming crisis and usually encourage the root causes to grow stronger and multiply consequences.  Relieving the symptoms and not curing the disease only happens with terminal patients or when the patient will get well on their own.
  • The global community of scientists and engineers contributed to diagnosing, understanding and suggesting treatments for the root causes based on technology and innovation without considering the systemic relationship of the environment and people exploited by the market economy.
  • All of the threats to humanity’s survival are traceable to one root cause: the utopian self-regulated market economy without a moral or ethical compass.  The individualism promoting a lifestyle that has no moral code.  The corporate propaganda that has no ethical compass.
  • The market economy and society interact through the democratic political process.  However the check and balance system is now corrupted by the individual and corporate propaganda saying that the market economy is the only way to improve the quality of life, when in fact the dominance of the market economy is the root cause of our present impending crisis.
  • The only possible entry point, to add a feedback loop to balance the system, appears to be when society embeds the market economy within an overall economy using a democracy with increased citizen participation.  This means that the wealthy and politically well connected who believe the present world order must be maintained will lose much of their individual influence and power.  Citizens will be empowered to participate in decision making.
  • The dominance of the market system, over society’s needs for clean air and water, productive cropland, human rights and access to capital, is the root cause of the global crisis that will surprise everyone in the 2020s.  In the real world, beyond the myth of the market economy, the approaching crisis is witnessed by: 
    • drought and floods degrading access to fresh water and food
    • increasing flow of refugees away from destabilized regions
    • inability of government financial institutions to properly manage capital.

  • The change in our values, thinking and behavior has already begun but only by a few people relative to the impact of a global reaction to the coming ecological and human crisis.  There are a growing number of business leaders and politicians who wish they could change but feel unsafe, threatened or that it goes against tradition.
  • Changes will be local, regional, national and global.  Changes impact government, education and military organizations because the assumptions used to build the myth of the self-regulating market economy are fiction.  Land, labor and money are not commodities that fit the economic theory of a market economy.
No one can predict the specific outcome, the details or results of the changes in the 2020s that will transform government, the economy and society.  We know that the present pattern of disruption, based on the alignment of generations and events, leads to a crisis climax with a successful transformation of society after about 2028.

We conclude that the next few years, until about 2020, involve futile peace negotiations like COP21 to appease the public, governments and businesses, without taking action to deal with the root cause of the crisis.  Like the beginning of WWII and Pearl Harbor 80 years earlier, the surprise catalyst will trigger a period of extreme transformation of governments, society, education and business.