Friday, July 27, 2018

Why This Theory of Change?

Generations align every 80 years according authors Strauss and Howe in their books “Generations” and “The Fourth Turning.”  About 2020, Boomers, GenXers and Millennials align as a movement to protect society from the catastrophic consequences of markets, climate change and corruption. 

Why 2020?  Millennials volunteer to rescue American Democracy from injustice when they fill the Young Adult cohort ages 18 to 38, GenXers fill Mid-Life cohort, and Boomers fill Elder cohort of people over 60.  Each cohort has a role in the movement.  Boomers provide the moral and ethical direction.  GenXers are supervisors and managers filling the role of pragmatic bosses.  Millennials are the soldiers of the movement, like the GI Generation was during WWII.

How will it work? The alignment of three generations will react to moral decay, corruption and injustice by voting to create new institutions and implement social justice.  The movement will organize to deal with the consequences of climate change and refugees.  The movement will use over 198 methods of non-violent action to achieve their goals.  Millennials must vote in large enough numbers to overcome the cognitive biases of the Boomer and GenX generations.

What will it achieve?  In 2018, American politics right now appears to be in the midst of an intense partisan and ideological battle over culture and identity.  However, beginning in 2020 the culture wars will suddenly stop.  Like the Revolutionary War for Independence, then the Civil War and WWII fought for Freedom and Liberty, the war against injustice will become the War for Justice.  The movement will achieve a higher level of Justice and Equality for people in America and across the world.

Like an ocean swell, a Hero Generation rises and falls with their population and influence on society.  The GI Generation, a Hero Generation, volunteered to rescue Europe from fascism and liberate countries. The Millennial Generation, the next Hero Generation, will volunteer to rescue American Democracy from injustice, and they will support Equality and Justice for all.

To understand this theory of change, there are four references that are required reading:
  1. Strauss, W., & Howe, N. (1997). The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.
  1. Block, Fred L., and Margaret R. Somers. The Power of Market Fundamentalism: Karl Polanyi's Critique. Harvard University Press, April 2014. 
  1. 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/
  1. Jacobs, Jane. Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of Commerce and Politics. New York: Random House, 1992.
A Systems Model

There are only two concepts required to understand this theory of change.  They are Level and Flow.  A Level measures the accumulation of material, like water in a bathtub.  A Flow measures the rate of change of the material, like water flowing into or out of a bathtub.

After Millennials are born (1982-2002), the number reaching voting age increases over time.  The voting age population is a Level.  The birth rate and aging to 18 are the measure of the flow of Millennials into the voting age population and deaths are the outflow over time.

As the GI Generation passed away, their influence on society faded.  By 2018, their leadership had vanished. In 2018, America has a lack of leadership by people in positions of power due to the passing of the GI Generation.  Leadership is also a Level that has an inflow and an outflow.

The Power of Market Fundamentalism

Polanyi’s “double movement” (reference 2 above) is when the movement to impose laissez-faire on society generates a countermovement to protect society from the devastating consequences of markets—not only from the threat of mass starvation, but also from environmental degradation and destructive economic cycles.

There is no such thing as “free” markets.  Markets have always been regulated by governments.  As we approach 2020, the economic, political and social order will tip towards more government regulation of commercial enterprise in reaction to the prior decades of unregulated environmental damage, government corruption and lack of social justice.

Systems of Survival

Jacobs describes the symbiotic relationship between the Guardian (government) system and the Commercial system (reference 4 above).  Merging the moral and ethical content of Jacobs, with the economic justice from Block and Somers book about Polanyi provides an overarching strategy for Boomers to play their role in the movement.

The 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action (reference 3) lists many tactics for implementing a moral and ethical strategy for economic and social justice.  The schedule or timeframe for implementation is described in The Fourth Turning (reference 1) based on the alignment of the three generations as we approach 2020.

What About You?

Based on your birth year, find your generation and use The Fourth Turning to learn about your generation’s role in the movement.  Apply your experience and skills to support organizations that fit your generation’s role, believe in your morals and ethics, and that support a social justice agenda.

Above all, vote!



Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Next Steps 2018


The external world failure rate increases, along with increasing immoral and unethical behavior, all exposing illegal and impeachable actions. Our Internal world slows, and at first nothing nearby seems different.

Years of volunteering at the local high school with the Millennial generation (born 1982-2002) will be coming to a close as the next generation, Neil Howe called Homelanders, blends with Freshmen and Sophomores.  Sticking with the Millennials means transitioning away from high school students.

The questions for me become what to do, where to go and with whom and why?  Next steps include freeing myself from my current duties.  Training students and teachers to use equipment and processes.  Replacing myself.  Retiring from school volunteer.

Why?

As the Fourth Turning unfolds around us, from now until about 2028, the external world will descend into a chaos unlike any before.  
  • When the Revolutionary War of the late 1770s into the 1780s was about Independence, todays America must find a new ideal to motivate and inspire a generation of Millennials.  
  • When the Civil War of the mid-1800s was about Freedom, today's America must deal with an international technology that is complex beyond anything experienced in the past.  
  • When the Second World War of the mid-1900s was about Liberty and Liberating whole countries, todays America must deal with the failure of democratic institutions to protect against authoritarian rulers.

The past ideals included Independence, Freedom and Liberty.  What ideal motivates and inspires the next Hero generation, the Millennials?

The current issues in 2018, that appear to motivate Millennials to vote, include gun control, separating and imprisoning immigrant families, inequality, racism and anti-Trump.  However, what will be the primary ideal to motivate a generation?


Justice might be an umbrella that includes many of the above issues.  Social justice, climate justice and new institutions for other types of inequality.

Saturday, July 7, 2018

Generations Align in 2020


Generations align every 80 years to form a trinity of elders, middle-aged and young adults prepared to fulfill their roles in an epic fight for survival. The American Revolution, Civil War and WWII were examples of this alignment. Envision 2020, when Baby Boomers will all be over 60, GenX will be in middle age and Millennials will all be young adults.

Boomers will hold the moral high ground. GenXers will manage and supervise, when and where action is needed. Millennials will have the youthful energy and teamwork to be the foot soldiers in an epic battle to save civilization. But from what?

Pope Francis detailed in his Encyclical on Climate Change (LAUDATO SI’) the moral principles for Boomers to follow that justify global mobilization of money, production and people. GenXers in business and government are mobilizing resources by leading organizations to align themselves with the new reality based on the consequences of climate change. Also, GenXers will lead Millennials when the time comes to implement drastic actions needed to save civilization from the global consequences of climate change.

Like 1935 prior to WWII, the world will navigate a path from 2020-2028, the very existence of which everyone in 2015 denies. As late as 1943, American politicians were not denying the truth of the concentration camps but were so shocked by the reports that they were unbelievable. In the same way, the truth of the consequences of climate change are now undeniable however that does not make them any more believable.

The fairy tale ending comes after 2028 when a new golden era emerges. But until then, what do we do? Reduce CO2 emissions by converting to renewable energy, driving electric cars and using public transportation. We need to change our lifestyles by not being as concerned with fashion and material things. We need to change our eating habits by eating less beef. We need to find as many ways as possible to reduce green house gas emissions.

We will need to find ways to feed millions of refugees and migrants. Agriculture will change dramatically due to droughts, food insecurity and reducing emissions. We will also need to find ways to sequester carbon to reduce the CO2 already in the atmosphere. All of these things mean that how we plant, maintain and harvest using large or small land holdings will change.

Saturday, June 30, 2018

A neuroscientist explains what could be wrong with Trump supporters’ brains

So how exactly are Trump loyalists psychologically or neurologically different from everyone else? What is going on in their brains that makes them so blindly devoted?

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect explains that the problem isn’t just that they are misinformed; it’s that they are completely unaware that they are misinformed. This creates a double burden.

Essentially, they’re not smart enough to realize they’re dumb.

Hypersensitivity to Threat

Science has unequivocally shown that the conservative brain has an exaggerated fear response when faced with stimuli that may be perceived as threatening.

These brain responses are automatic, and not influenced by logic or reason.

Terror Management Theory

The theory is based on the fact that humans have a unique awareness of their own mortality. The inevitably of one’s death creates existential terror and anxiety that is always residing below the surface. In order to manage this terror, humans adopt cultural world views — like religions, political ideologies, and national identities — that act as a buffer by instilling life with meaning and value.

By constantly emphasizing existential threat, Trump creates a psychological condition that makes the brain respond positively rather than negatively to bigoted statements and divisive rhetoric. Liberals and Independents who have been puzzled over why Trump hasn’t lost supporters after such highly offensive comments need look no further than Terror Management Theory.

High Attentional Engagement

His showmanship and simple messages clearly resonate at a visceral level.

Conclusion

So what can we do to potentially change the minds of Trump loyalists before voting in 2020? As a cognitive neuroscientist, it grieves me to say that there may be nothing we can do. The overwhelming majority of these people may be beyond reach, at least in the short term. The best we can do is to motivate everyone else to get out to the booths and check the box that doesn’t belong to a narcissistic nationalist who has the potential to damage the nation beyond repair.


Bobby Azarian is a neuroscientist affiliated with George Mason University and a science writer. His research has been published in journals such as Cognition & Emotion and Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, and he has written for The New York Times, Scientific American, Psychology Today, Slate, The Daily Beast, and The Huffington Post. He also runs the website Science Is Sexy. Follow him @BobbyAzarian.


Sunday, June 3, 2018

Why Mobilize Society?

Oregon

There was a time when the world was not locked in the grip of a climate crisis.  After over 130 years of science confirming that the laws of physics explain why the atmosphere is warming, we continue to watch and gather evidence.  We wait and delay.  We verify and confirm the warming atmosphere and oceans.  We avoid mobilizing everyone to take appropriate action.

I’m from Oregon.  Born and raised in a state that I love.  If you talk to anyone with cynicism about what causes the climate to change, invite them to visit Oregon.  Talk to the politicians and people who vote. Talk to business leaders and educators.  

If you talk to anyone with cynicism about the effects of climate change, invite them to visit Oregon.  Talk to the politicians and people who vote.  Read the reports, policy statements and laws passed.  Talk to the business leaders and people on the street.

Here you will not see the effect of a natural disaster or unanticipated crisis.  Oregon does not have a philosophy of government that measures the quality of decisions based on numbers on a piece of paper.  Oregon does not have a philosophy of government that says “you’re on your own.”  Oregon does not rely on a morally bankrupt philosophy.

Oregon politicians have thought of a way forward.  Oregon does not require winners and losers in an unregulated marketplace.  Oregon does not have evidence that our society, our economy or our community is a marketplace where we’re all on our own.

We are bound together as humans by the consequences of our actions here and now, and our actions that effect lives in India and future generations.  Oregon’s way forward means we’re next-door neighbors to people on the other side of the world.  Oregon’s way forward means we must protect future lives from the effects of unlimited climate change.

The rhetoric to justify imposing laissez-faire on society, so that only corporations profit, does not apply to Oregon.  We support a countermovement to protect society from the devastating consequences of markets.  Oregon’s way forward protects society from environmental degradation and destructive economic cycles.

Games and Imagination

Games help us solve complex problems.  Games exercise our imagination to solve a problem where the cause and effect are distant in time and space.  For example, climate change is a complicated system caused by carbon dioxide released in America effecting the lives of people in India ten years later when extreme weather kills people.

How do we know this?  One law of physics defines the energy in the atmosphere as the concentration of CO2 increases and absorbs radiant energy from the land and oceans. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law states that the energy is equal to a constant times temperature to the fourth power.  Climate change models (games) are based on this fundamental law of physics. Not everyone in Oregon needs to understand the physics of climate change.  We vote for politicians that rely on data, evidence and science.

Oregonians do not have the illusion of separateness.  The Oregon way forward imagines a society that is not in the middle of a moral crisis.  Oregonians experience the interdependence that bonds humans together to support a common way forward.

Models and forecasts of climate change are like games in that they imagine a world where cause and effect are distant in time and space from today. The Oregon way forward includes political and economic support for reducing emissions of CO2 from all sources.  Oregon politicians have played the climate game, using their imaginations, to envision a world with and without government protection for society.

Consequences of Voting

Oregonians vote time and again to expand our freedoms and liberty to include a whole range of socio-economic rights including a job and a quality education.  The movement is not without setbacks and suffering.  Like every other state, Oregon has wealthy citizens wanting to limit benefits solely to those who already have income, leisure and security.  

The conservative idea of a free market system limits the freedoms and liberty of 90 percent of the population. Fred Block and Margaret Somers in their book “The Power of Market Fundamentalism,” analyze Karl Polanyi’s critique of so called “free markets.”

The book describes the consequences of voting for politicians supporting a free market.  The children born to parents in the bottom half of the income distribution experience “dramatically diminished opportunities for upward social mobility.”  The US has experienced fundamental changes in society when social movements emerge outside of the organized political party system as a counter-movement to a free market society.

Mobilizing society to deal with the causes and effects of climate change requires a imagining a way forward that includes everyone in the world.  In Oregon, our votes have consequences that effect future generations and people living halfway around the world.

Vote for politicians in America to expand freedoms and liberty for all of society to include the right to an environment free of pollution, to affordable housing, to higher education for boys and girls, and to many other freedoms only available to the wealthy.  Vote to mobilize society.








Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Systems and Climate Change

All systems, everywhere, have levels and flows.  A system has at least one feedback loop.  

An example of a system is a bathtub.  The faucet is an inflow, the tub is an accumulation with a level of water, and the drain is the outflow.  The rate of outflow depends on the level of water in the tub. Based on Bernoulli's equation & Torricelli's Law, the rate of flow is proportional to the height of the water column over the drain hole.

Symbols


Cloud defines system boundary
Pipe contains flow of material
Arrow head shows direction of flow
Accumulation contains material with level
Single line with arrow head moves information to control flow rate



Examples

Inflow
Level
Outflow
Water thru faucet
Bathtub
Drain
Intravenous Drug
Human body
Elimination
Affirmations
Self-Esteem
Self-Talk

Climate Change

Sunlight reaches the surfaces of the earth and warms the land and oceans.  Some light is reflected back into space and some reflected light warms the atmosphere.  The land and oceans radiate energy back into the atmosphere, also called heat.  The radiant energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by heat trapping gases such as aerosols, methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This is called the greenhouse effect that increases the average temperature of the atmosphere.

As the inflow of CO2 to the atmosphere has continued for decades and increased over time, the radiant energy trapped in the atmosphere has increased.  We measure the result as the average global temperature of the atmosphere over time.

As the temperature of the lower level of the atmosphere increases, the radiant energy dissipates into the upper layers of the atmosphere and eventually out into space.  As the inflow of CO2 increases, the outflow rate increases to the upper levels of the atmosphere and into space.  However, over time the increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more radiant energy and the average global temperature continues to increase over time.

Equations

Based on the Stephan-Boltzmann equation the rate of outflow in the energy from the atmosphere is proportional to the temperature of the atmosphere.  The equation ( j = ⍺ * T^4) means the energy in joules equals a constant times the temperature to the fourth power.

Now we can link the parts together, add the many converters and constants needed for the exact calculations, and we have a complex system with multiple feedback loops.


Imagine a molecule of CO2 released in China on January 1, 2018.  In 2028, that molecule will finally reach an equilibrium temperature after absorbing radiant energy for years.  This means that the consequences of greenhouse gases are distant in time and space from the emissions.

Extending the Model

Two extensions of the model are critical to discuss.  One is adding layers to the atmosphere instead of only one atmosphere as shown in the model above.  Second, adding the oceans to the model, so we can calculate the change in atmospheric temperature over time as the oceans absorb radiant energy from the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing 80 to 90 percent of the increase in radiant energy added to the atmosphere.  Water has a higher heat capacity than air so the oceans can absorb up to 1,000 times more energy than the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing CO and CO2 gases.  The chemical changes in the ocean then lead to changes in the acidity of the water.  The life in the oceans can not evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes in the acidity.

These two changes in the oceans, increased heat and acidity, are slowly killing life in the oceans.

Conclusion

Causality means connecting the root cause with the eventual consequences over time and space.  The discussion above shows how each molecule of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, increases the global average temperature and kills life in the oceans.  The increases in atmospheric temperature are not evenly distributed and the consequences for humans are not evenly distributed.



Monday, January 1, 2018

Distribution of Professional Opinion on Anthropogenic Climate Change

As the predicted impact of climate change increases from negative to neutral, the limited number of proponents are in right-wing think tanks.  This is the lowest level of ethical thinking and debate in the media about the consequences of climate change.  No contrarian scientists actually exist that are frequently cited by those supporting denial of climate change and the impact on humans.  No peer-reviewed scientist denies climate change is real. 



One hundred percent of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and the IPCC agree that there is a substantial cost to the predicted impact of climate change.  This defines the upper limit of the ethical thinking and debate in the media.  The most informed opinions are not reported in the media.  Those opinions are considered unreasonable and describe catastrophic consequences, and yet they are the most informed scientists in the world.

The overwhelming majority of proponents of the significant cost and catastrophic consequences of climate change are not reported in the media.  The IPCC conclusions are the most significant costs published in the media.

Who would have predicted the Revolutionary War, Civil War or WWII even a few years before they became the crisis of the moment?  The first crisis climax of the 21st Century is approaching quickly.  About 2020, America will pivot quickly.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change and taxes, and many social programs that were once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.


Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.