Fourth Turning is a Crisis

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists (born 1925-1942) die, Prophets (born 1943-1960) enter Elderhood, Nomads (born 1961-1981) enter midlife, Heroes (born 1982-2004) enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists (born 2005-??) is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. 

In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

A Fourth Turning is an era in when the availability of social order is low, but the demand for social order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

Moods of the Four Turnings
GENERATION ENTERING…	FIRST TURNING	SECOND TURNING	THIRD TURNING	FOURTH TURNING
	(HIGH)	(AWAKENING)	(UNRAVELING)	(CRISIS)
ELDERHOOOD	Nomad	Hero	Artist	Prophet
MIDLIFE	Hero	Artist	Prophet	Nomad
YOUNG ADULTHOOD	Artist	Prophet	Nomad	Hero
CHILDHOOD	Prophet	Nomad	Hero	Artist
FAMILIES	Strong	Weakening	Weak	Strengthening
CHILD NURTURE	Loosening	Underprotective	Tightening	Overprotective
GAP BETWEEN GENDER ROLES	Maximum	Narrowing	Minimum	Widening
IDEALS	Settled	Discovered	Debated	Championed
INSTITUTIONS	Reinforced	Attacked	Eroded	Founded
CULTURE	Innocent	Passionate	Cynical	Practical
SOCIAL STRUCTURE	Unified	Splintering	Diversified	Gravitating
WORLDVIEW	Simple	Complicating	Complex	Simplifying
SPECIAL PRIORITY	Maximum Community	Rising Individualism	Maximum Individualism	Rising Community
SOCIAL MOTIVATOR	Shame	Conscience	Guilt	Stigma
SENSE OF GREATEST NEED	Do What Works	Fix Inner World	Do What Feels Right	Fix Outer World
VISION OF FUTURE	Brightening	Euphoric	Darkening	Urgent
WARS	Restorative	Controversial	Inconclusive	Total

Moods of the Four Turning

Each Generation enters a new phase of life.  Boomers, born 1943-1960, enter Elderhood when 60 years old.  By 2020, all the Boomers are in Elderhood phase of life.  GenX, born 1961-1981, enter Midlife when 39 years old.  By 2020, all the GenX are in Midlife phase of life.

Boomers are the Prophets, the idealists, they articulate the moral and ethical narrative.  They are about evenly split between liberal and conservative, however they self-select to live in blue states/counties and red states/counties.  GenX are the Nomads, the practical and independent managers and supervisors of the Millennial generation.

Millennials, born 1982-2002, enter Young Adulthood when 18 years old.  By 2020, all the Millennials are in the Young Adulthood phase of life.  Starting with the 2018 election and finally with the 2020 election, Millennials vote with their feet and at the ballot box.  Millennials and the GI Generation are the Hero Archetype.  They rescue America.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change, taxes and many social programs once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.

Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.

System Dynamics and Climate Change

How might System Dynamics (SD) be used to support an amicus curiae brief?

How might the SD community collaborate to document the cause and effect of climate change, as a system, to be used in an amicus curiae brief?

Where a case may have broader implications, amicus curiae briefs are a way to introduce those concerns, so that the possibly broad legal effects of court decisions will not depend solely on the parties directly involved in the case.

Challenge: How can you prove that oil dug out of the ground by Exxon is causing a tiny Alaskan village to disappear?

Problem

1.  “There is no realistic possibility of tracing any particular alleged effect of global warming to any particular emissions by any specific person, entity, group at any particular point in time,” wrote US District Judge Saundra Brown Armstrong.

2.  “In the case of global climate change, a molecule of carbon is literally around the world in seven days,” Scott Segal, an attorney who defends energy companies, told the Washington Post in July. “The requisite causation needed for nuisance suits is missing and unprovable.”

Response

1.  “We have better science,” Berman argued. “We think causation will be easier to prove.”

2.  Financial damages from climate change are more quantifiable.

3.  They marketed and sold a product that they knew is causing climate change.

Reference

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/43qw3j/meet-the-lawyer-trying-to-make-big-oil-pay-for-climate-change