Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Systems and Climate Change

All systems, everywhere, have levels and flows.  A system has at least one feedback loop.  

An example of a system is a bathtub.  The faucet is an inflow, the tub is an accumulation with a level of water, and the drain is the outflow.  The rate of outflow depends on the level of water in the tub. Based on Bernoulli's equation & Torricelli's Law, the rate of flow is proportional to the height of the water column over the drain hole.

Symbols


Cloud defines system boundary
Pipe contains flow of material
Arrow head shows direction of flow
Accumulation contains material with level
Single line with arrow head moves information to control flow rate



Examples

Inflow
Level
Outflow
Water thru faucet
Bathtub
Drain
Intravenous Drug
Human body
Elimination
Affirmations
Self-Esteem
Self-Talk

Climate Change

Sunlight reaches the surfaces of the earth and warms the land and oceans.  Some light is reflected back into space and some reflected light warms the atmosphere.  The land and oceans radiate energy back into the atmosphere, also called heat.  The radiant energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by heat trapping gases such as aerosols, methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This is called the greenhouse effect that increases the average temperature of the atmosphere.

As the inflow of CO2 to the atmosphere has continued for decades and increased over time, the radiant energy trapped in the atmosphere has increased.  We measure the result as the average global temperature of the atmosphere over time.

As the temperature of the lower level of the atmosphere increases, the radiant energy dissipates into the upper layers of the atmosphere and eventually out into space.  As the inflow of CO2 increases, the outflow rate increases to the upper levels of the atmosphere and into space.  However, over time the increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more radiant energy and the average global temperature continues to increase over time.

Equations

Based on the Stephan-Boltzmann equation the rate of outflow in the energy from the atmosphere is proportional to the temperature of the atmosphere.  The equation ( j = ⍺ * T^4) means the energy in joules equals a constant times the temperature to the fourth power.

Now we can link the parts together, add the many converters and constants needed for the exact calculations, and we have a complex system with multiple feedback loops.


Imagine a molecule of CO2 released in China on January 1, 2018.  In 2028, that molecule will finally reach an equilibrium temperature after absorbing radiant energy for years.  This means that the consequences of greenhouse gases are distant in time and space from the emissions.

Extending the Model

Two extensions of the model are critical to discuss.  One is adding layers to the atmosphere instead of only one atmosphere as shown in the model above.  Second, adding the oceans to the model, so we can calculate the change in atmospheric temperature over time as the oceans absorb radiant energy from the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing 80 to 90 percent of the increase in radiant energy added to the atmosphere.  Water has a higher heat capacity than air so the oceans can absorb up to 1,000 times more energy than the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing CO and CO2 gases.  The chemical changes in the ocean then lead to changes in the acidity of the water.  The life in the oceans can not evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes in the acidity.

These two changes in the oceans, increased heat and acidity, are slowly killing life in the oceans.

Conclusion

Causality means connecting the root cause with the eventual consequences over time and space.  The discussion above shows how each molecule of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, increases the global average temperature and kills life in the oceans.  The increases in atmospheric temperature are not evenly distributed and the consequences for humans are not evenly distributed.



Monday, January 1, 2018

Distribution of Professional Opinion on Anthropogenic Climate Change

As the predicted impact of climate change increases from negative to neutral, the limited number of proponents are in right-wing think tanks.  This is the lowest level of ethical thinking and debate in the media about the consequences of climate change.  No contrarian scientists actually exist that are frequently cited by those supporting denial of climate change and the impact on humans.  No peer-reviewed scientist denies climate change is real. 



One hundred percent of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and the IPCC agree that there is a substantial cost to the predicted impact of climate change.  This defines the upper limit of the ethical thinking and debate in the media.  The most informed opinions are not reported in the media.  Those opinions are considered unreasonable and describe catastrophic consequences, and yet they are the most informed scientists in the world.

The overwhelming majority of proponents of the significant cost and catastrophic consequences of climate change are not reported in the media.  The IPCC conclusions are the most significant costs published in the media.

Who would have predicted the Revolutionary War, Civil War or WWII even a few years before they became the crisis of the moment?  The first crisis climax of the 21st Century is approaching quickly.  About 2020, America will pivot quickly.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change and taxes, and many social programs that were once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.


Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Fourth Turning is a Crisis

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists (born 1925-1942) die, Prophets (born 1943-1960) enter Elderhood, Nomads (born 1961-1981) enter midlife, Heroes (born 1982-2004) enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists (born 2005-??) is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. 

In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

A Fourth Turning is an era in when the availability of social order is low, but the demand for social order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

Moods of the Four Turnings




GENERATION ENTERING… FIRST TURNING SECOND TURNING THIRD TURNING FOURTH TURNING

(HIGH) (AWAKENING) (UNRAVELING) (CRISIS)
ELDERHOOOD Nomad Hero Artist Prophet
MIDLIFE Hero Artist Prophet Nomad
YOUNG ADULTHOOD Artist Prophet Nomad Hero
CHILDHOOD Prophet Nomad Hero Artist
FAMILIES Strong Weakening Weak Strengthening
CHILD NURTURE Loosening Underprotective Tightening Overprotective
GAP BETWEEN GENDER ROLES Maximum Narrowing Minimum Widening
IDEALS Settled Discovered Debated Championed
INSTITUTIONS Reinforced Attacked Eroded Founded
CULTURE Innocent Passionate Cynical Practical
SOCIAL STRUCTURE Unified Splintering Diversified Gravitating
WORLDVIEW Simple Complicating Complex Simplifying
SPECIAL PRIORITY Maximum Community Rising Individualism Maximum Individualism Rising Community
SOCIAL MOTIVATOR Shame Conscience Guilt Stigma
SENSE OF GREATEST NEED Do What Works Fix Inner World Do What Feels Right Fix Outer World
VISION OF FUTURE Brightening Euphoric Darkening Urgent
WARS Restorative Controversial Inconclusive Total

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Moods of the Four Turning

Each Generation enters a new phase of life.  Boomers, born 1943-1960, enter Elderhood when 60 years old.  By 2020, all the Boomers are in Elderhood phase of life.  GenX, born 1961-1981, enter Midlife when 39 years old.  By 2020, all the GenX are in Midlife phase of life.

Boomers are the Prophets, the idealists, they articulate the moral and ethical narrative.  They are about evenly split between liberal and conservative, however they self-select to live in blue states/counties and red states/counties.  GenX are the Nomads, the practical and independent managers and supervisors of the Millennial generation.

Millennials, born 1982-2002, enter Young Adulthood when 18 years old.  By 2020, all the Millennials are in the Young Adulthood phase of life.  Starting with the 2018 election and finally with the 2020 election, Millennials vote with their feet and at the ballot box.  Millennials and the GI Generation are the Hero Archetype.  They rescue America.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change, taxes and many social programs once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.

Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.




System Dynamics and Climate Change



How might System Dynamics (SD) be used to support an amicus curiae brief?

How might the SD community collaborate to document the cause and effect of climate change, as a system, to be used in an amicus curiae brief?

Where a case may have broader implications, amicus curiae briefs are a way to introduce those concerns, so that the possibly broad legal effects of court decisions will not depend solely on the parties directly involved in the case.

Challenge: How can you prove that oil dug out of the ground by Exxon is causing a tiny Alaskan village to disappear?

Problem

1.  “There is no realistic possibility of tracing any particular alleged effect of global warming to any particular emissions by any specific person, entity, group at any particular point in time,” wrote US District Judge Saundra Brown Armstrong.

2.  “In the case of global climate change, a molecule of carbon is literally around the world in seven days,” Scott Segal, an attorney who defends energy companies, told the Washington Post in July. “The requisite causation needed for nuisance suits is missing and unprovable.”

Response

1.  “We have better science,” Berman argued. “We think causation will be easier to prove.”

2.  Financial damages from climate change are more quantifiable.

3.  They marketed and sold a product that they knew is causing climate change.

Reference