Why This Theory of Change?

Generations align every 80 years according authors Strauss and Howe in their books “Generations” and “The Fourth Turning.”  About 2020, Boomers, GenXers and Millennials align as a movement to protect society from the catastrophic consequences of markets, climate change and corruption. 

Why 2020?  Millennials volunteer to rescue American Democracy from injustice when they fill the Young Adult cohort ages 18 to 38, GenXers fill Mid-Life cohort, and Boomers fill Elder cohort of people over 60.  Each cohort has a role in the movement.  Boomers provide the moral and ethical direction.  GenXers are supervisors and managers filling the role of pragmatic bosses.  Millennials are the soldiers of the movement, like the GI Generation was during WWII.

How will it work? The alignment of three generations will react to moral decay, corruption and injustice by voting to create new institutions and implement social justice.  The movement will organize to deal with the consequences of climate change and refugees.  The movement will use over 198 methods of non-violent action to achieve their goals.  Millennials must vote in large enough numbers to overcome the cognitive biases of the Boomer and GenX generations.

What will it achieve?  In 2018, American politics right now appears to be in the midst of an intense partisan and ideological battle over culture and identity.  However, beginning in 2020 the culture wars will suddenly stop.  Like the Revolutionary War for Independence, then the Civil War and WWII fought for Freedom and Liberty, the war against injustice will become the War for Justice.  The movement will achieve a higher level of Justice and Equality for people in America and across the world.

Like an ocean swell, a Hero Generation rises and falls with their population and influence on society.  The GI Generation, a Hero Generation, volunteered to rescue Europe from fascism and liberate countries. The Millennial Generation, the next Hero Generation, will volunteer to rescue American Democracy from injustice, and they will support Equality and Justice for all.

To understand this theory of change, there are four references that are required reading:

1. Strauss, W., & Howe, N. (1997). The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy.

2. Block, Fred L., and Margaret R. Somers. The Power of Market Fundamentalism: Karl Polanyi's Critique. Harvard University Press, April 2014. 

3. 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/

4. Jacobs, Jane. Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of Commerce and Politics. New York: Random House, 1992.

A Systems Model

There are only two concepts required to understand this theory of change.  They are Level and Flow.  A Level measures the accumulation of material, like water in a bathtub.  A Flow measures the rate of change of the material, like water flowing into or out of a bathtub.

After Millennials are born (1982-2002), the number reaching voting age increases over time.  The voting age population is a Level.  The birth rate and aging to 18 are the measure of the flow of Millennials into the voting age population and deaths are the outflow over time.

As the GI Generation passed away, their influence on society faded.  By 2018, their leadership had vanished. In 2018, America has a lack of leadership by people in positions of power due to the passing of the GI Generation.  Leadership is also a Level that has an inflow and an outflow.

The Power of Market Fundamentalism

Polanyi’s “double movement” (reference 2 above) is when the movement to impose laissez-faire on society generates a countermovement to protect society from the devastating consequences of markets—not only from the threat of mass starvation, but also from environmental degradation and destructive economic cycles.

There is no such thing as “free” markets.  Markets have always been regulated by governments.  As we approach 2020, the economic, political and social order will tip towards more government regulation of commercial enterprise in reaction to the prior decades of unregulated environmental damage, government corruption and lack of social justice.

Systems of Survival

Jacobs describes the symbiotic relationship between the Guardian (government) system and the Commercial system (reference 4 above).  Merging the moral and ethical content of Jacobs, with the economic justice from Block and Somers book about Polanyi provides an overarching strategy for Boomers to play their role in the movement.

The 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action (reference 3) lists many tactics for implementing a moral and ethical strategy for economic and social justice.  The schedule or timeframe for implementation is described in The Fourth Turning (reference 1) based on the alignment of the three generations as we approach 2020.

What About You?

Based on your birth year, find your generation and use The Fourth Turning to learn about your generation’s role in the movement.  Apply your experience and skills to support organizations that fit your generation’s role, believe in your morals and ethics, and that support a social justice agenda.

Above all, vote!

Next Steps 2018

The external world failure rate increases, along with increasing immoral and unethical behavior, all exposing illegal and impeachable actions. Our Internal world slows, and at first nothing nearby seems different.

Years of volunteering at the local high school with the Millennial generation (born 1982-2002) will be coming to a close as the next generation, Neil Howe called Homelanders, blends with Freshmen and Sophomores.  Sticking with the Millennials means transitioning away from high school students.

The questions for me become what to do, where to go and with whom and why?  Next steps include freeing myself from my current duties.  Training students and teachers to use equipment and processes.  Replacing myself.  Retiring from school volunteer.

Why?

As the Fourth Turning unfolds around us, from now until about 2028, the external world will descend into a chaos unlike any before.  

• When the Revolutionary War of the late 1770s into the 1780s was about Independence, todays America must find a new ideal to motivate and inspire a generation of Millennials.  
• When the Civil War of the mid-1800s was about Freedom, today's America must deal with an international technology that is complex beyond anything experienced in the past.  
• When the Second World War of the mid-1900s was about Liberty and Liberating whole countries, todays America must deal with the failure of democratic institutions to protect against authoritarian rulers.

The past ideals included Independence, Freedom and Liberty.  What ideal motivates and inspires the next Hero generation, the Millennials?

The current issues in 2018, that appear to motivate Millennials to vote, include gun control, separating and imprisoning immigrant families, inequality, racism and anti-Trump.  However, what will be the primary ideal to motivate a generation?

Justice might be an umbrella that includes many of the above issues.  Social justice, climate justice and new institutions for other types of inequality.

Generations Align in 2020

Generations align every 80 years to form a trinity of elders, middle-aged and young adults prepared to fulfill their roles in an epic fight for survival. The American Revolution, Civil War and WWII were examples of this alignment. Envision 2020, when Baby Boomers will all be over 60, GenX will be in middle age and Millennials will all be young adults.

Boomers will hold the moral high ground. GenXers will manage and supervise, when and where action is needed. Millennials will have the youthful energy and teamwork to be the foot soldiers in an epic battle to save civilization. But from what?

Pope Francis detailed in his Encyclical on Climate Change (LAUDATO SI’) the moral principles for Boomers to follow that justify global mobilization of money, production and people. GenXers in business and government are mobilizing resources by leading organizations to align themselves with the new reality based on the consequences of climate change. Also, GenXers will lead Millennials when the time comes to implement drastic actions needed to save civilization from the global consequences of climate change.

Like 1935 prior to WWII, the world will navigate a path from 2020-2028, the very existence of which everyone in 2015 denies. As late as 1943, American politicians were not denying the truth of the concentration camps but were so shocked by the reports that they were unbelievable. In the same way, the truth of the consequences of climate change are now undeniable however that does not make them any more believable.

The fairy tale ending comes after 2028 when a new golden era emerges. But until then, what do we do? Reduce CO2 emissions by converting to renewable energy, driving electric cars and using public transportation. We need to change our lifestyles by not being as concerned with fashion and material things. We need to change our eating habits by eating less beef. We need to find as many ways as possible to reduce green house gas emissions.

We will need to find ways to feed millions of refugees and migrants. Agriculture will change dramatically due to droughts, food insecurity and reducing emissions. We will also need to find ways to sequester carbon to reduce the CO2 already in the atmosphere. All of these things mean that how we plant, maintain and harvest using large or small land holdings will change.