Monday, July 22, 2013

Psychology is how and why climate change is happening.

If the biggest barriers to fighting climate change are psychological rather than technological, then the solutions might be psychological too.  Strategies that reduce fear and create a sense that we can make a difference today with simple positive action might prove more successful. Moral arguments that emphasize shared values may also prove more effective, since decisions are often based on social interactions and values rather than scientific data.

The psychology of denial concerning climate mitigation measures: evidence from Swiss focus groups, S. Stoll-Kleemann, Tim O'Riordan, Carlo C. Jaeger
Various studies of public opinion regarding the causes and consequences of climate change reveal both a deep reservoir of concern, yet also a muddle over causes, consequences and appropriate policy measures for mitigation. The technique adopted here, namely integrated assessment (IA) focus groups, in which groups of randomly selected individuals in Switzerland looked at models of possible consequences of climate change and questioned specialists as to their accuracy and meaning, revealed a rich assembly of reactions. Respondents were alarmed about the consequences of high-energy futures, and mollified by images of low-energy futures. Yet they also erected a series of psychological barriers to justify why they should not act either individually or through collective institutions to mitigate climate change. From the viewpoint of changing their lifestyles of material comfort and high-energy dependence, they regarded the consequences of possible behavioural shift arising from the need to meet mitigation measures as more daunting. To overcome the dissonance created in their minds they created a number of socio-psychological denial mechanisms. Such mechanisms heightened the costs of shifting away from comfortable lifestyles, set blame on the inaction of others, including governments, and emphasised doubts regarding the immediacy of personal action when the effects of climate change seemed uncertain and far away. These findings suggest that more attention needs to be given to the social and psychological motivations as to why individuals erect barriers to their personal commitment to climate change mitigation, even when professing anxiety over climate futures. Prolonged and progressive packages of information tailored to cultural models or organised belief patterns, coupled to greater community based policy incentives may help to widen the basis of personal and moral responsibility. (2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.)


“...there is a chance that citizens could still lead their governments. Along with more socially minded business, and supportive non-governmental organizations, such a “new democracy” could create a realm of effective climate management for a sustainable millennium.”

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Global Climate Bubble

Based on foresight by Financial Crisis Observatory, humanity in the Anthropocene has already caused a bubble. The global ecological state has shifted due to the increased population affecting ecosystems. The percentage of lightly affected ecosystems has decreased and there is an increased percentage of Earth’s ecosystems that show state shifts. The whole global ecosystem is like a financial or housing price bubble that is going to burst and shift into a new regime. 

The consequences of this graphic are clear. Rather than focusing on the fossil fuel industry, that should be totally shutdown, we should strive to increase productivity, human capital and knowledge in sectors of the economy that produce real value.  This opportunity spreads from the many challenges humanity faces in the 21st Century. I doubt that we will face this reality before a catastrophe overwhelms us, but I have faith at the same time that we will overcome the crisis and come out of this era having faced down our enemy, ourselves, and be determined to improve the Earth’s ecological state to include humanity.

Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
FILMED JUN 2013 • POSTED JUN 2013 • TEDGlobal 2013