The Fourth Turning Explained

March 12, 2016

The Fourth Turning has a high demand by society for order as the political supply of order reaches a low.  

There are four stages: catalyst, regeneracy, climax and resolution.

The Fourth Turning is subdivided into stages by four critical events.  The first event, the catalyst, triggers or starts the 4T.  It is “a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.” The second, the regeneracy, marks the beginning of “a new counter-entropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life.” The third, the climax, is “a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new.”  The fourth is the resolution, “a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.”

Current Four Stages of Fourth Turning in 21st Century

Catalyst to start Fourth Turning:  9/2008

The global Dow was in free fall.  Banks were failing.  Money markets froze shut.  Business owners held their breath.

Beginning of Regeneracy: 12/2015

Projected 2020-2025 End of Regeneracy

• 2015 bilateral climate change agreement between China and US leading up to COP21 Paris agreement.
• Obama’s leadership established him as a Grey Champion and he will finish out his last months in office continuing to support regeneracy.  Example: Supreme Court Nominee.
• The 2016 Presidential Election cycle exposes differences between Trump and majority of society.

The Regeneracy:

1. patch over differences, band together, and build something new
2. beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency
3. regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event

Climax:  2020-2025

“a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and triumph of the new.”

Resolution: 2026-2029

“a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.”

References:

9/10/2015

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/09/10/fourth-turning-crisis-of-trust/

Prior article 2/12/2015

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/02/12/fourth-turning-the-shadow-of-crisis-has-not-passed-part-four/

Neil Howe Article from 2012

http://blog.saeculumresearch.com/2012/03/dating-the-fourth-turning/