The Fourth Turning, 2015 Update

England approached Germany 80 years ago in 1935 with negotiations for a peace agreement that later became known as Appeasement (1936-1939).  France hosted 195 nations in Paris for COP21 with negotiations for a peace agreement that will become known as a 21st Century Appeasement (2015-2020).  During this time of change, the news media spreads fear because of water and food scarcity, destabilized governments and civil wars, millions of refugees, and domestic or foreign terrorists.  No one avoids being vulnerable to violence or the consequences of economic and social conflict.

A rosy picture of 2015 is also portrayed by a media biased toward entertainment.  What is the truth? Are we living in a time of abundance or scarcity, peace or war, stability or chaos?  Why are people afraid and angry? We could get really confused listening to Apologists, Denialists, Technologists, Incrementalists, Isolationists or Activists.

The headlines might be confusing to many, they are to me sometimes.  Observing a pattern over time encourages hope that we will overcome the consequences of ignoring for decades the cause and effect of climate change.

2015 status of The Fourth Turning

1. Great Recession aligns with the stock market crash of 1929 and beginning of Great Depression.  The Great Recession, officially for U.S. began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, however the consequences lasted for years afterward, like the Great Depression.

2. The UN concentration camps for climate refugees and migrants align with the concentration camps started in 1933 in Germany and the migration of refugees pre-WWII.  During 2015, over 1 million people migrated into Europe, and almost 60 million worldwide are in concentration camps.

3.  Pope Francis (born 1936, Silent) issues Climate Change Encyclical (June 18, 2015) that gives Boomers moral guidelines to realign governance and commercial organizations.  The Pope critiques consumerism and irresponsible development, laments environmental degradation and global warming, and calls all people of the world to take "swift and unified global action.” 

4. 2015 COP21 agreement aligns with Appeasement 1936-1939.  COP21 is a peace agreement that ignores the non-negotiable physics of the consequences of heat transfer in the atmosphere.  195 countries negotiated transferring money and maintaining peace while ignoring the consequences of drought and food scarcity that destabilize governments like Syria. 195 countries ignored cause and effect.

5.  By 2020, Baby Boomers (then ages 60 to 78) will play the role of Elders with a moral agenda outlined by item 3 above. Boomers will be 1/3 retired comfortably, 1/3 part retired/part working, and 1/3 working poor. GenXers (ages 39-59) will be in top management and supervisor positions throughout the economy, however many will be just getting by or working poor.  As you know, Millennials (in 2020, ages 16 to 38) have a significantly different set of values and beliefs from the older generations.  Each generation will step forward and fill their roles as outlined in “The Fourth Turning.”

6. The term Climate Patriot is emerging as a way to begin to describe the actions and future sacrifices that Americans, and specifically Millennials, are going to need to take to survive from 2020 until after 2028.  The growth of a global grassroots movement for climate justice and ecology has taken a long time to emerge, and now appears to be unstoppable.

One example is “Climate Mobilization” http://www.theclimatemobilization.org/about_us2

advocating that the only way to save civilization from climate change is with a wartime-style mobilization like WWII. 

References: 

The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe

Generations by Strauss and Howe