September 14, 2015
Governor Kate Brown
Mayor Denny Doyle
Senator Ron Wyden
Senator Jeffrey A. Merkley
Representative Suzanne Bonamici
The consequences of decades of CO2 emissions are already baked into the Earth System. However, as a consequence of climate change, the human suffering is just beginning.
The CO2 emissions now in the atmosphere and the oceans have enough momentum to shift the heat energy and chemistry of the Earth System so that many millions of humans are going to suffer.
So what? Why am I writing this letter?
In western Oregon, especially the Willamette Valley, we are uniquely positioned to have a mild marine climate, plentiful rainfall, a few more hot dry days in the summer, and plentiful farmland for crops and grazing. While the rest of Oregon is under drought declarations, NW Oregon has so far been spared from the extreme consequences. However that leads us to a future problem, everyone is going to want to move to western Oregon when they run out of water and experience food insecurity.
16.1 percent of people in Oregon experienced food insecurity in 2012-2014 period (per FDA). That means over 630,000 real people did not have enough food at least one day of the year. But there was growth in that number over time. Why?
The ones who suffer from the consequences of climate change are those vulnerable to food insecurity. Pope Frances’ Encyclical makes clear that the world’s poor are going to suffer the worst consequences.
One possible impact of climate change is that migration could shift away from California and up into Oregon, where resources, especially water, are more plentiful (See Reference below). Climate change refugees will come to Oregon, not just from other countries, but by the thousands from California and Texas, and any other state that suffers from extreme weather, loss of jobs and food insecurity. There won’t be enough jobs here for them. We will need to figure out how to feed and provide shelter to what will feel like an invasion.
Unlike the exodus from New Orleans in 2005, where the people with the resources were able to avoid the life threatening disaster. The exodus from drought areas in California, Arizona and Texas, coming to Oregon will not have jobs here, will not have resources to find shelter and will experience food insecurity.
There are many unanswered questions:
- Is Oregon going to be organized, efficient and welcoming like Germany? Or are we going to be like Hungary and keep them moving into Washington?
- What principles, values and beliefs are going to be used to justify Oregon’s official actions?
- Does Oregon have the connections to the Federal resources to be able to get help quickly enough to respond?
- Where are all these people going to find shelter? Or are we going to concentrate them in migrant camps like we did the Japanese during WWII?
- Are the climate migrants going to be primarily Hispanic from Mexico, and Central and South America?
- Are we going to deport people? There are still at least 10 million undocumented people living in America. They are the poorest and least able to adapt where they live.
Climate Change Puzzle Pieces (See Reference below)
Carbon Management
- Energy production transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
- Transportation transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (cars, trucks, buses, light rail trains, mass transit) to electric vehicles.
- Energy use transition to upgrade built environment energy efficiency.
- Agriculture and grazing land management practices to reclaim land from desertification and maintain existing productive land.
- Forest land management practices.
- Removing CO2 from the atmosphere and Sequestering carbon.
Consequences of Climate Change require people to adapt, mitigate risks and communicate.
- Water sources, use and storage.
- Food security.
- Refugees migrating across America.
- Refugees from Mexico, Central and South America.
- Refugees from other countries.
Reference:
ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANTS AND THE FUTURE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
A Preliminary Exploration, USP 594: Planning in the Pacific Northwest Fall 2011
SOLVING THE PUZZLE: Researching the Impacts of Climate Change Around the World http://www.nsf.gov/news/nsf09202/nsf09202.pdf
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