The Coming Chaos: War in the 2020s

The success of terrorists to wage warfare did not peak with the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center nor with the insurgents in Iraq prior to 2008. In 2008 and 2009, many more people lost their lives in thousands of terrorist attacks in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, at Mumbai, India and other places around the world. Each month US soldiers are killed in Afghanistan and Iraq.

In October 2009, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been the largest killer of American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and are also showing up in Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Colombia, Somalia and parts of North Africa.

Strategically, extremists hope to wear us down over time. However the greatest threat to civilization might be the vast number of destabilizing events reaching a tipping point causing a catastrophic shift in the balance of power in the world. The international community might not be able to maintain order and the rule of law in the 2020s due to non-state insurgents and nation states like Iran and North Korea initiating destabilizing events.

A shift in behavior has created a new area of military action between the point where conventional diplomacy fails and a declared conventional war begins. This is why the past decade and the next decade of chaos will lead to world wide war in the 2020s. In under developed countries millions of people will migrate attempting to avoid the chaos of warfare. In developed countries millions of young adults will volunteer to join the military and civilian industry supporting the war effort.

The economic mobilization for war is not tied to the actual outbreak of hostilities. The increasingly hostile international environment and the long lead-times necessary to produce the sophisticated tools of war have created what many call the military-industrial complex. Today they provide armed, unmanned aircraft that can be controlled from anywhere in the world using satellite communications and used to destroy the command structure of a decentralized enemy.

The US political climate, the lack of UN power and the inability to use conventional diplomacy with insurgents will lead to increasing violence to destabilize states and destroy the public’s support of military efforts to stop the violence. Full-scale mobilization will remain politically impossible until we have passed the tipping-point (a Pearl Harbor type event).

The current protective mobilization to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq at least gives the US military a starting point in preparing for a world wide defense mission. Few people understand that a mobilization for 2020 is, in fact, already under way. Mobilization for 2020 will be an evolving situation with the US not formally at war and reacting to the spread of conflict by moving from one set of expansion goals to another.

The US government will need to encourage industrial expansion before increasing the armed forces manpower otherwise the war might be lost before it ever begins. This includes stopping production of cold war weapons and building capacity for 21st Century weapons to fight a much different war.

This expansion will probably be justified to provide support for vulnerable countries and nuclear states like Pakistan. In 20090, President Obama is cutting cold war style fighting weapons from the budget and at the same time providing weapons and support to Pakistan. The continued creativity and innovation by the US military to fight insurgents over the next ten years will greatly improve our chances of successful mobilization for future warfare.

One of the overlooked factors will be the construction of housing to support training and organizing the millions volunteering for military duty. Any delay in housing might delay enlistments. Since 2001, US experience with mobilizing the National Guard and Reserve greatly improves the chances we will be prepared by 2020 however we will still be overwhelmed by the millions volunteering.

Creation of a political consensus in support of war will no longer be an issue after a defining event that is unknown to us in 2009. Whoever is President, they will need to manage the mobilization for war without political consensus before 2020. Then the US will need to quickly develop the type of civilian and military organization to merge and manage the industrial and manpower mobilization.

At the end of World War II there were over 8 million soldiers in the US Army. In 2009, there are a total of 1,473,900 active duty personnel from all services and 1,458,500 reserve personnel. (Only China has more active duty personnel.) In 2008, the US had almost 120 million men and women fit for service between the ages of 18 and 49. Mobilizing that many people for wartime civilian and military service will be a significant challenge. Millions of people will be migrating across the US and the world.

Looking back, we will see that the first step in mobilizing for 2020 began with the authorization in 2007 to expand the Army and Marine Corps by 2012. As of 2008 there were over 200,000 (13.5%) female military personnel. The percentage of female personnel will be significantly higher by 2020.

My opinion is not a forecast or prediction, not a wish or prophecy, not a fantasy or intuition. I’m not predicting success or failure. I don’t know exactly when or how it will start. We know this will be a global war.

The driving forces behind the chaos leading up to the catastrophic 2020s will be demographics. The millions of unemployed, unmarried, cause-driven, heroic young men in Asia and the Middle East are going to threaten the stability of every government and nation-state. India, Pakistan, Iran and other countries are going to lead the way toward instability.

Bibliography

1. Morris, Chris. "Information Warfare in the Age of Chaos: Preparing for 2020." Airpower Journal (Spring 1995). Print.

2. "WWII: Mobilization." U.S. Army Center Of Military History. Web. 28 Oct. 2009. .
3. "United States armed forces -." Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Web. 28 Oct. 2009. .