Why System Dynamics?

Review of prior post 

Why System Dynamics?

All systems, everywhere have levels and flows. These are the only two concepts needed to understand why systems work the way they do (Forrester, 1996).

We were taught in school to accumulate knowledge and skills in order to get a job. We define learning as the accumulation of knowledge. We test every child at every grade level to measure their accumulated knowledge. We teach people how to do things so they have a skill in order to get a job.

Public education teaches people what is important to know. Students learn skills so that they know how to do things.  Students are tested on what they know and the skills for how to use what they know. System Dynamics (SD) enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

Public education involves a way of thinking, learning and communicating that focuses on the past up to the present. Science, math, reading and writing are all focused on knowledge (what) and skills (how) that have been codified into a curriculum. In public education students learn about the past up to the present.

Life is moving fast. We need a way to think, learn and communicate about the future.  The current public school system does not meet that need.

Sustainability education and environmental literacy are focused on students learning more and more about how to do more things.  By conforming to the way the current public education system focuses on what and how, we are asking students to accumulate more and more knowledge about the recent past.  We are asking students to accumulate more and more skills about how things were done in the recent past.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate about the future. (Richmond 2010)  With SD, learning is about why systems work they way they do.  What is needed to model a system is accumulated just in time to use in a model.  The knowledge needed about how the parts of a system are related is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.  The understanding needed about why feedback loops in systems tell a story is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.

SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.  Politicians and decision makers need to know why systems work the way they do so that they can craft policies that are successful in the future. Policy makers need informed citizens who know why systems work they way they do.

Why do policymakers choose policies that fail? A policy response is rational for decision makers who fail to account for the feedback structure of a system. Only by considering the full feedback structure is the ineffectiveness of a policy revealed. By learning why feedback affects system behavior, small system dynamics models have a crucial role to play in policy making. (Ghaffarzadegan, 2012)

Policy makers fall prey to the “Pull my finger” joke.  They develop a policy that responds to correlations, trends and events believing that they understand the cause like when the finger pull and the sound are close together in space and time. The irony of public policy making is that, without understanding system feedback, what happened in the past will be made worse by a policy response.

Without SD, public education is teaching students to look to the past to make decisions about the future.  The public school system is walking backwards into the future. 

The public school system is the primary obstacle to students using SD.  The entrenched paradigms are the foundation for education institutions that teach what and how from K12 through university doctorate programs.  Educators and students are evaluated based on what they know and how to use what they know.  SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate in a new way so that educators engage student’s mental models. When mental models rely on “Pull my finger” thinking a person is not going to understand feedback. To use SD requires a new way of thinking: Think about levels and flows connected in feedback loops within a closed boundary.

To use SD requires a new definition of learning: Learning is improving the quality of our mental models.(Richmond 2010) The current public school system does not attempt to improve the quality of student’s mental models. 

To use SD requires a new way of communicating: Communicate about why your model works using feedback loops.  This is where qualitative tools like causal loop diagrams and behavior-over-time graphs are used and useful.

Jay Forrester is the founder of System Dynamics. He has said for many years that with the right guidance “students must create their own models and learn from trial and error.” In this way dynamic modeling is learning by doing. “I believe that immersion in such active learning can change mental models.” (Forrester 2009)

Why System Dynamics? System Dynamics enables us to understand why systems work they way they do in order to prepare for the future.

Bibliography

1. Forrester, Jay W. "System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers." Creative Learning Exchange. 30 May 1996. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4665-5.pdf>.
2. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, John Lyneis, and George P. Richardson. "Why and How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public Policy Models." System Dynamics Society. Web. 10 Feb. 2012. <http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1388.pdf>.
3. Richmond, Barry. "Introduction: The Thinking in Systems Thinking- Eight Critical Skills." Ed. Joy Richmond. Tracing Connections: Voices of Systems Thinkers. Lebanon, NH: ISEE Systems, 2010. 3-21. Print.
4. Forrester, Jay W. "Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century." Creative Learning Exchange. 2009. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/whyk12sd/Y_2009-02LearningThroughSD.pdf>.

Millenial Generation (Born 1982 - 2004)

Our lives, our sacred honor and our Democracy are all on the line November 3, 2020.  Each Generation approaches this kind of tipping point in history with a different attitude.  GenX (Born 1961 - 1981) believe individual responsibility solves all problems.  They expect nothing from government and receive nothing.  The majority of GenX will be on the losing side of the election in November.

Millennials remain incredibly optimistic because they know who will win the election and lead America out of this multi-crisis era.  Millennials will continue to adapt and change, and fit into whatever happens.  Millennials experience all the chaos, destruction and turmoil in society.  How do they remain optimistic?

Optimism saves Millennials from following the path described by the current Administration.  Millennials believe in Community and learned to be risk averse. Millennials believe you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.  Millennials have been told they are special since they were born and so they take care of themselves because everyone expects great things from them.

There will be tremendous wealth destruction over the next 5 to 10 years as the fossil fuel industry wealth degrades and their influence on politicians plummets to nothing.  The old social order also gets destroyed with the shift away from Republican and Conservative values toward Democracy and collective values.

As then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wrote in his 1922 book American Individualism: "Individualism has been the primary force of American civilization for three centuries.”  Individual responsibility will degrade and collective responsibility championed by Millennials will prevail in 2021.

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek said in an interview in November 2016:

“If there’s going to be a reconstruction following a failed Trump presidency, it’s going to be something completely different than what we’ve seen before. Somebody has to come up with what that’s going to be. That’s a job for political action, not political science.”

In 2020 and beyond, happiness will be based on a collectivist society not individual wealth.  Collectivist teams are where everyone is making decisions collectively, this results in more of a consensus decision making model and typically the team feels responsible for the success collectively.  The Biden/Harris nomination positions Democrats to take political action by creating collectivist teams that reject individualism offered by Republicans.  As a result, Republicans will be reduced to the minority party for decades after the Democrats success from 2020 through 2028 enters the history books.

What about Baby Boomers?  Joe Biden is one of the oldest Boomers alive today.  The top leaders in a time of multiple crises have always been from an older generation at the time.  There are GenX and Millennial leaders supporting specific agendas within the overall Democrat agenda.  However a Boomer generation leader was expected to step forward and lead a collective political action.

Systems and Climate Change

All systems, everywhere, have levels and flows.  A system has at least one feedback loop.  

An example of a system is a bathtub.  The faucet is an inflow, the tub is an accumulation with a level of water, and the drain is the outflow.  The rate of outflow depends on the level of water in the tub. Based on Bernoulli's equation & Torricelli's Law, the rate of flow is proportional to the height of the water column over the drain hole.

Symbols

Cloud defines system boundary

Pipe contains flow of material

Arrow head shows direction of flow

Accumulation contains material with level

Single line with arrow head moves information to control flow rate

Examples

Inflow	Level	Outflow
Water thru faucet	Bathtub	Drain
Intravenous Drug	Human body	Elimination
Affirmations	Self-Esteem	Self-Talk

Climate Change

Sunlight reaches the surfaces of the earth and warms the land and oceans.  Some light is reflected back into space and some reflected light warms the atmosphere.  The land and oceans radiate energy back into the atmosphere, also called heat.  The radiant energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by heat trapping gases such as aerosols, methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2).  This is called the greenhouse effect that increases the average temperature of the atmosphere.

As the inflow of CO2 to the atmosphere has continued for decades and increased over time, the radiant energy trapped in the atmosphere has increased.  We measure the result as the average global temperature of the atmosphere over time.

As the temperature of the lower level of the atmosphere increases, the radiant energy dissipates into the upper layers of the atmosphere and eventually out into space.  As the inflow of CO2 increases, the outflow rate increases to the upper levels of the atmosphere and into space.  However, over time the increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap more radiant energy and the average global temperature continues to increase over time.

Equations

Based on the Stephan-Boltzmann equation the rate of outflow in the energy from the atmosphere is proportional to the temperature of the atmosphere.  The equation ( j = ⍺ * T^4) means the energy in joules equals a constant times the temperature to the fourth power.

Now we can link the parts together, add the many converters and constants needed for the exact calculations, and we have a complex system with multiple feedback loops.

Imagine a molecule of CO2 released in China on January 1, 2018.  In 2028, that molecule will finally reach an equilibrium temperature after absorbing radiant energy for years.  This means that the consequences of greenhouse gases are distant in time and space from the emissions.

Extending the Model

Two extensions of the model are critical to discuss.  One is adding layers to the atmosphere instead of only one atmosphere as shown in the model above.  Second, adding the oceans to the model, so we can calculate the change in atmospheric temperature over time as the oceans absorb radiant energy from the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing 80 to 90 percent of the increase in radiant energy added to the atmosphere.  Water has a higher heat capacity than air so the oceans can absorb up to 1,000 times more energy than the atmosphere.

Scientists have calculated that the oceans are acting as a buffer by absorbing CO and CO2 gases.  The chemical changes in the ocean then lead to changes in the acidity of the water.  The life in the oceans can not evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes in the acidity.

These two changes in the oceans, increased heat and acidity, are slowly killing life in the oceans.

Conclusion

Causality means connecting the root cause with the eventual consequences over time and space.  The discussion above shows how each molecule of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, increases the global average temperature and kills life in the oceans.  The increases in atmospheric temperature are not evenly distributed and the consequences for humans are not evenly distributed.

Distribution of Professional Opinion on Anthropogenic Climate Change

As the predicted impact of climate change increases from negative to neutral, the limited number of proponents are in right-wing think tanks.  This is the lowest level of ethical thinking and debate in the media about the consequences of climate change.  No contrarian scientists actually exist that are frequently cited by those supporting denial of climate change and the impact on humans.  No peer-reviewed scientist denies climate change is real. 

One hundred percent of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and the IPCC agree that there is a substantial cost to the predicted impact of climate change.  This defines the upper limit of the ethical thinking and debate in the media.  The most informed opinions are not reported in the media.  Those opinions are considered unreasonable and describe catastrophic consequences, and yet they are the most informed scientists in the world.

The overwhelming majority of proponents of the significant cost and catastrophic consequences of climate change are not reported in the media.  The IPCC conclusions are the most significant costs published in the media.

Who would have predicted the Revolutionary War, Civil War or WWII even a few years before they became the crisis of the moment?  The first crisis climax of the 21st Century is approaching quickly.  About 2020, America will pivot quickly.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change and taxes, and many social programs that were once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.

Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.

The Consequences of Climate Change

As we continue in 2013 to postpone, like we have for decades, the policies that could bring about a sustainable world, the population grows too large, pollution builds too high, resources are drained too much, and a collapse is no longer avoidable.

Sustainability

As corporations continue to focus on keeping profits flowing and accumulating wealth, they will attempt to continue to privatize land and water resources. Without government intervention, the Corporations are designed to privatize all resources and dispose of all wastes in the commons.