Millenial Generation (Born 1982 - 2004)

Our lives, our sacred honor and our Democracy are all on the line November 3, 2020.  Each Generation approaches this kind of tipping point in history with a different attitude.  GenX (Born 1961 - 1981) believe individual responsibility solves all problems.  They expect nothing from government and receive nothing.  The majority of GenX will be on the losing side of the election in November.

Millennials remain incredibly optimistic because they know who will win the election and lead America out of this multi-crisis era.  Millennials will continue to adapt and change, and fit into whatever happens.  Millennials experience all the chaos, destruction and turmoil in society.  How do they remain optimistic?

Optimism saves Millennials from following the path described by the current Administration.  Millennials believe in Community and learned to be risk averse. Millennials believe you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.  Millennials have been told they are special since they were born and so they take care of themselves because everyone expects great things from them.

There will be tremendous wealth destruction over the next 5 to 10 years as the fossil fuel industry wealth degrades and their influence on politicians plummets to nothing.  The old social order also gets destroyed with the shift away from Republican and Conservative values toward Democracy and collective values.

As then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wrote in his 1922 book American Individualism: "Individualism has been the primary force of American civilization for three centuries.”  Individual responsibility will degrade and collective responsibility championed by Millennials will prevail in 2021.

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek said in an interview in November 2016:

“If there’s going to be a reconstruction following a failed Trump presidency, it’s going to be something completely different than what we’ve seen before. Somebody has to come up with what that’s going to be. That’s a job for political action, not political science.”

In 2020 and beyond, happiness will be based on a collectivist society not individual wealth.  Collectivist teams are where everyone is making decisions collectively, this results in more of a consensus decision making model and typically the team feels responsible for the success collectively.  The Biden/Harris nomination positions Democrats to take political action by creating collectivist teams that reject individualism offered by Republicans.  As a result, Republicans will be reduced to the minority party for decades after the Democrats success from 2020 through 2028 enters the history books.

What about Baby Boomers?  Joe Biden is one of the oldest Boomers alive today.  The top leaders in a time of multiple crises have always been from an older generation at the time.  There are GenX and Millennial leaders supporting specific agendas within the overall Democrat agenda.  However a Boomer generation leader was expected to step forward and lead a collective political action.

Distribution of Professional Opinion on Anthropogenic Climate Change

As the predicted impact of climate change increases from negative to neutral, the limited number of proponents are in right-wing think tanks.  This is the lowest level of ethical thinking and debate in the media about the consequences of climate change.  No contrarian scientists actually exist that are frequently cited by those supporting denial of climate change and the impact on humans.  No peer-reviewed scientist denies climate change is real. 

One hundred percent of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and the IPCC agree that there is a substantial cost to the predicted impact of climate change.  This defines the upper limit of the ethical thinking and debate in the media.  The most informed opinions are not reported in the media.  Those opinions are considered unreasonable and describe catastrophic consequences, and yet they are the most informed scientists in the world.

The overwhelming majority of proponents of the significant cost and catastrophic consequences of climate change are not reported in the media.  The IPCC conclusions are the most significant costs published in the media.

Who would have predicted the Revolutionary War, Civil War or WWII even a few years before they became the crisis of the moment?  The first crisis climax of the 21st Century is approaching quickly.  About 2020, America will pivot quickly.

Society Norms

From the late 1980s until about 2020, the maximum emphasis was placed on individualism. Inequality became the norm.  Public debate continued to confuse people about who benefits from policy decisions on healthcare, climate change and taxes, and many social programs that were once supported by the federal and state governments.  Families were weak, child nurture has tightened, the gap between gender roles was at a minimum.

As the Crisis Era Climax begins in 2020, families will strengthen, children will be overprotected, and the gap between gender roles will widen.  Ideals will no longer be debated.  Ideals will be championed.  The catalyst will be the Inequality of the consequences of climate change.

Even now, as conservatives continue to attack decades old institutions, and the public’s trust erodes, new local, national and international institutions are being founded to support the implementation of championed ideals.

The cynical voices in American culture have been the loudest for decades.  Beginning in 2020, practical GenXers will stabilize society with a practical culture focused on sustainability.  A social structure that has been diversifying will begin gravitating toward unity.  

Even by 2017, the American worldview includes complications and complexity.  About 2020, the worldview will condense to simplifying societies goals and objectives.  Boomers and GenXers will refocus priorities away from maximum individualism.  A social norm of rising community will dominate the voices of Boomers and GenX.

How will Boomers and GenX motivates their peers and Millennials?  Not like in the past by appealing to conscience and guilt.  In the 2020s, a social stigma will motivate people.  Like what happened after Pearl Harbor, when not supporting the troops in Europe and the Pacific was taboo.  The social stigma will be implemented on the job and at home, by institutions and society.

In the past, a sense of the greatest need was to do what works, or fix the inner world of values, or in the 21st Century to do what feels right.  By 2020, the greatest need will be to fix the outer world caused by the consequences of climate change and eroding institutions.

What is your vision of the future?  The Fourth Turning vision describes the recent past as a slide into darkness.  As our present political and social situation darkens, we approach a tipping point when everyone has a sense of urgency.  Actions will speak louder than words.

Instead of controversial and inconclusive wars without worldwide support, America will be forced into total mobilization to combat the consequences of climate change.  A war on CO2 emissions will implode the fossil fuel economy and lead to worldwide chaos.  Americans will rise up to support a new social order in the same way that the Revolutionary War, Civil War and WWII required the total commitment and urgent response of America’s resources.

Fourth Turning is a Crisis

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. Old Artists (born 1925-1942) die, Prophets (born 1943-1960) enter Elderhood, Nomads (born 1961-1981) enter midlife, Heroes (born 1982-2004) enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists (born 2005-??) is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. 

In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with World War II. The generation that came of age during this Fourth Turning was the Hero archetype G.I. Generation (born 1901 to 1924), whose collective spirit and can-do optimism epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s Hero archetype youth, the Millennial Generation (born 1982 to 2004) show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.

A Fourth Turning is an era in when the availability of social order is low, but the demand for social order is high. Examples of earlier Fourth Turnings include the Civil War in the 1860s and the American Revolution in the 1770s—both periods of momentous crisis, when the identity of the nation hung in the balance.

Moods of the Four Turnings
GENERATION ENTERING…	FIRST TURNING	SECOND TURNING	THIRD TURNING	FOURTH TURNING
	(HIGH)	(AWAKENING)	(UNRAVELING)	(CRISIS)
ELDERHOOOD	Nomad	Hero	Artist	Prophet
MIDLIFE	Hero	Artist	Prophet	Nomad
YOUNG ADULTHOOD	Artist	Prophet	Nomad	Hero
CHILDHOOD	Prophet	Nomad	Hero	Artist
FAMILIES	Strong	Weakening	Weak	Strengthening
CHILD NURTURE	Loosening	Underprotective	Tightening	Overprotective
GAP BETWEEN GENDER ROLES	Maximum	Narrowing	Minimum	Widening
IDEALS	Settled	Discovered	Debated	Championed
INSTITUTIONS	Reinforced	Attacked	Eroded	Founded
CULTURE	Innocent	Passionate	Cynical	Practical
SOCIAL STRUCTURE	Unified	Splintering	Diversified	Gravitating
WORLDVIEW	Simple	Complicating	Complex	Simplifying
SPECIAL PRIORITY	Maximum Community	Rising Individualism	Maximum Individualism	Rising Community
SOCIAL MOTIVATOR	Shame	Conscience	Guilt	Stigma
SENSE OF GREATEST NEED	Do What Works	Fix Inner World	Do What Feels Right	Fix Outer World
VISION OF FUTURE	Brightening	Euphoric	Darkening	Urgent
WARS	Restorative	Controversial	Inconclusive	Total