Why System Dynamics?

Review of prior post 

Why System Dynamics?

All systems, everywhere have levels and flows. These are the only two concepts needed to understand why systems work the way they do (Forrester, 1996).

We were taught in school to accumulate knowledge and skills in order to get a job. We define learning as the accumulation of knowledge. We test every child at every grade level to measure their accumulated knowledge. We teach people how to do things so they have a skill in order to get a job.

Public education teaches people what is important to know. Students learn skills so that they know how to do things.  Students are tested on what they know and the skills for how to use what they know. System Dynamics (SD) enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

Public education involves a way of thinking, learning and communicating that focuses on the past up to the present. Science, math, reading and writing are all focused on knowledge (what) and skills (how) that have been codified into a curriculum. In public education students learn about the past up to the present.

Life is moving fast. We need a way to think, learn and communicate about the future.  The current public school system does not meet that need.

Sustainability education and environmental literacy are focused on students learning more and more about how to do more things.  By conforming to the way the current public education system focuses on what and how, we are asking students to accumulate more and more knowledge about the recent past.  We are asking students to accumulate more and more skills about how things were done in the recent past.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate about the future. (Richmond 2010)  With SD, learning is about why systems work they way they do.  What is needed to model a system is accumulated just in time to use in a model.  The knowledge needed about how the parts of a system are related is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.  The understanding needed about why feedback loops in systems tell a story is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.

SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.  Politicians and decision makers need to know why systems work the way they do so that they can craft policies that are successful in the future. Policy makers need informed citizens who know why systems work they way they do.

Why do policymakers choose policies that fail? A policy response is rational for decision makers who fail to account for the feedback structure of a system. Only by considering the full feedback structure is the ineffectiveness of a policy revealed. By learning why feedback affects system behavior, small system dynamics models have a crucial role to play in policy making. (Ghaffarzadegan, 2012)

Policy makers fall prey to the “Pull my finger” joke.  They develop a policy that responds to correlations, trends and events believing that they understand the cause like when the finger pull and the sound are close together in space and time. The irony of public policy making is that, without understanding system feedback, what happened in the past will be made worse by a policy response.

Without SD, public education is teaching students to look to the past to make decisions about the future.  The public school system is walking backwards into the future. 

The public school system is the primary obstacle to students using SD.  The entrenched paradigms are the foundation for education institutions that teach what and how from K12 through university doctorate programs.  Educators and students are evaluated based on what they know and how to use what they know.  SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate in a new way so that educators engage student’s mental models. When mental models rely on “Pull my finger” thinking a person is not going to understand feedback. To use SD requires a new way of thinking: Think about levels and flows connected in feedback loops within a closed boundary.

To use SD requires a new definition of learning: Learning is improving the quality of our mental models.(Richmond 2010) The current public school system does not attempt to improve the quality of student’s mental models. 

To use SD requires a new way of communicating: Communicate about why your model works using feedback loops.  This is where qualitative tools like causal loop diagrams and behavior-over-time graphs are used and useful.

Jay Forrester is the founder of System Dynamics. He has said for many years that with the right guidance “students must create their own models and learn from trial and error.” In this way dynamic modeling is learning by doing. “I believe that immersion in such active learning can change mental models.” (Forrester 2009)

Why System Dynamics? System Dynamics enables us to understand why systems work they way they do in order to prepare for the future.

Bibliography

1. Forrester, Jay W. "System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers." Creative Learning Exchange. 30 May 1996. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4665-5.pdf>.
2. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, John Lyneis, and George P. Richardson. "Why and How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public Policy Models." System Dynamics Society. Web. 10 Feb. 2012. <http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1388.pdf>.
3. Richmond, Barry. "Introduction: The Thinking in Systems Thinking- Eight Critical Skills." Ed. Joy Richmond. Tracing Connections: Voices of Systems Thinkers. Lebanon, NH: ISEE Systems, 2010. 3-21. Print.
4. Forrester, Jay W. "Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century." Creative Learning Exchange. 2009. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/whyk12sd/Y_2009-02LearningThroughSD.pdf>.

Problem Description

John Locke had a DIY fantasy about the future and a profound influence on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States. In addition, he defined private property in a way that today we have embed in our Constitutions and laws. Robert Nozick coined the phrase “Lockean Proviso” based on Locke’s Second Treatise of Government, Chapter V, paragraph 33. Many political philosophers have written about this phrase but I am not here to argue philosophy.

Locke envisioned a future of privatized resources from land and water assuming what remained was not depleted so that someone else was deprived of that resource. The Lockean Proviso is true when there is enough left in common for others or the quality is good enough so that others are not deprived of the use of the common resource.

“Nobody could think himself injured by the drinking of another man, though he took a good draught, who had a whole river of the same water left him to quench his thirst. And the case of land and water, where there is enough of both, is perfectly the same.”

The basic human problem of the 21st Century is that we each live a substitute life in our adult mind causing us to behave as if the Lockean Proviso will remain true in the future. We believe we can continue polluting the common land, water and air as if the quantity and quality of those resources were unlimited. An unsustainable world is when the Lockean Proviso is not true.

Growth means there is a surplus. Humans have had a surplus of land, water, air, oil, electricity, food and many other things. We continue to grow, using the surplus, as the demands of the population increase and the number of people increases. Some people use fear, uncertainty and doubt to scare people into thinking there is a limit to growth because of a limit in the surplus of these things. This creates a conflict with our belief that the Lockean Proviso is true.

However there are many examples of renewable resources that can be substituted for resources that might not be available in the future in sufficient quantities. An unsustainable world is not when the quantity element of the Lockean Proviso is not true. An unsustainable world is when the quality of the commons is depleted so that someone in the future is deprived of that resource.

The Lockean Proviso will not be true when the quality of the commons is not good enough so that others are deprived of the use of the common resource. Therefore, a sustainable world is when the quality of the commons is not depleted so that future generations are deprived of that resource.

The Consequences of Climate Change

As we continue in 2013 to postpone, like we have for decades, the policies that could bring about a sustainable world, the population grows too large, pollution builds too high, resources are drained too much, and a collapse is no longer avoidable.

Sustainability

As corporations continue to focus on keeping profits flowing and accumulating wealth, they will attempt to continue to privatize land and water resources. Without government intervention, the Corporations are designed to privatize all resources and dispose of all wastes in the commons.