Tesla Described by ChatGPT-4

March 25, 2023 based on 2021 data

Tesla is often considered an AI tech company because of its significant investment in artificial intelligence and advanced computing technologies, which are integrated into its electric vehicles and other products. Tesla's vehicles are equipped with a range of sensors and cameras that collect vast amounts of data on the vehicle's surroundings and use machine learning algorithms to process and interpret that data in real-time. This allows the vehicles to adapt to changing road conditions and provide advanced safety features, such as automatic emergency braking and adaptive cruise control.

In addition to its work in autonomous driving, Tesla has also developed a range of other AI-powered technologies, such as its energy management systems and its solar products, which use machine learning algorithms to optimize energy production and consumption. The company has also developed its own AI hardware and software, including its custom-designed Autopilot computer, which is designed to handle the complex computations required for autonomous driving.

Overall, Tesla's focus on AI and advanced computing technologies is one of the key factors that sets it apart from other electric vehicle manufacturers, and has helped it to establish a reputation as a leading innovator in the field of sustainable transportation and energy.

Letter to My Granddaughters

Dear Isa and Ally,

Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) estimates that 50% of young people, ages 18-29, voted in the 2020 presidential election, a remarkable 11-point increase from 2016 (39%) and likely one of the highest rates of youth electoral participation since the voting age was lowered to 18.  Millennials ages 18-40 (born 1982-2004), must continue to vote in order to save our democracy.

Oregon is one of the states that has Democrats as leaders.  The goal of Millennials will be to flip other states to vote for Democrats, that have voted Republican in the past.

For you, that means probably traveling to other states to register Millennials to vote and to get out the vote during primaries, and in November 2020 and 2024.

At the same time, the consequences of climate change will increase the number of refugees worldwide and in North America.  Millennials will be called on to deal with the refugee crisis.

January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capital almost destroyed our democracy.  Now the success or failure of our DOJ and overall justice system will determine if our democracy continues.

SCOTUS lost legitimacy with their ruling against abortion.  The Republican appointed conservative majority threatens our democracy and the authority of the Federal government.  Rights are not Rights if someone can take them away from you.  SCOTUS needs to be reformed.  The Senate filibuster needs to be abolished.

The war in Ukraine is destroying lives, homes and democracy.  The war is disrupting food supplies in the Middle East.  US and EU are spending billions of dollars and euros on war supplies.

The US economy is dealing with inflation and will then experience a recession (hopefully not very long).  The US has a shortage of labor due to low wages for some jobs.

The COVID pandemic continues to have new variants spread across the world.

These crises, voting, refugees, war, economic and the pandemic will unfold in a chaotic communication bubble of propaganda, false realities, lies, and immoral and unethical behavior.  Millennials must use their social and networking skills, social media skills, internet and computer skills, and use face to face teamwork to organize young people ages 18-40 to take action.

Unfortunately, the fight for justice and equality will require sacrifice, however we will emerge with a clear vision of a better future.

Grandpa

Updated July 14, 2022

Why System Dynamics?

Review of prior post 

Why System Dynamics?

All systems, everywhere have levels and flows. These are the only two concepts needed to understand why systems work the way they do (Forrester, 1996).

We were taught in school to accumulate knowledge and skills in order to get a job. We define learning as the accumulation of knowledge. We test every child at every grade level to measure their accumulated knowledge. We teach people how to do things so they have a skill in order to get a job.

Public education teaches people what is important to know. Students learn skills so that they know how to do things.  Students are tested on what they know and the skills for how to use what they know. System Dynamics (SD) enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

Public education involves a way of thinking, learning and communicating that focuses on the past up to the present. Science, math, reading and writing are all focused on knowledge (what) and skills (how) that have been codified into a curriculum. In public education students learn about the past up to the present.

Life is moving fast. We need a way to think, learn and communicate about the future.  The current public school system does not meet that need.

Sustainability education and environmental literacy are focused on students learning more and more about how to do more things.  By conforming to the way the current public education system focuses on what and how, we are asking students to accumulate more and more knowledge about the recent past.  We are asking students to accumulate more and more skills about how things were done in the recent past.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate about the future. (Richmond 2010)  With SD, learning is about why systems work they way they do.  What is needed to model a system is accumulated just in time to use in a model.  The knowledge needed about how the parts of a system are related is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.  The understanding needed about why feedback loops in systems tell a story is accumulated just in time to use them in a model.

SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.  Politicians and decision makers need to know why systems work the way they do so that they can craft policies that are successful in the future. Policy makers need informed citizens who know why systems work they way they do.

Why do policymakers choose policies that fail? A policy response is rational for decision makers who fail to account for the feedback structure of a system. Only by considering the full feedback structure is the ineffectiveness of a policy revealed. By learning why feedback affects system behavior, small system dynamics models have a crucial role to play in policy making. (Ghaffarzadegan, 2012)

Policy makers fall prey to the “Pull my finger” joke.  They develop a policy that responds to correlations, trends and events believing that they understand the cause like when the finger pull and the sound are close together in space and time. The irony of public policy making is that, without understanding system feedback, what happened in the past will be made worse by a policy response.

Without SD, public education is teaching students to look to the past to make decisions about the future.  The public school system is walking backwards into the future. 

The public school system is the primary obstacle to students using SD.  The entrenched paradigms are the foundation for education institutions that teach what and how from K12 through university doctorate programs.  Educators and students are evaluated based on what they know and how to use what they know.  SD enables us to understand why systems work they way they do.

System dynamics is a tool to think, learn and communicate in a new way so that educators engage student’s mental models. When mental models rely on “Pull my finger” thinking a person is not going to understand feedback. To use SD requires a new way of thinking: Think about levels and flows connected in feedback loops within a closed boundary.

To use SD requires a new definition of learning: Learning is improving the quality of our mental models.(Richmond 2010) The current public school system does not attempt to improve the quality of student’s mental models. 

To use SD requires a new way of communicating: Communicate about why your model works using feedback loops.  This is where qualitative tools like causal loop diagrams and behavior-over-time graphs are used and useful.

Jay Forrester is the founder of System Dynamics. He has said for many years that with the right guidance “students must create their own models and learn from trial and error.” In this way dynamic modeling is learning by doing. “I believe that immersion in such active learning can change mental models.” (Forrester 2009)

Why System Dynamics? System Dynamics enables us to understand why systems work they way they do in order to prepare for the future.

Bibliography

1. Forrester, Jay W. "System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers." Creative Learning Exchange. 30 May 1996. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4665-5.pdf>.
2. Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, John Lyneis, and George P. Richardson. "Why and How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public Policy Models." System Dynamics Society. Web. 10 Feb. 2012. <http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1388.pdf>.
3. Richmond, Barry. "Introduction: The Thinking in Systems Thinking- Eight Critical Skills." Ed. Joy Richmond. Tracing Connections: Voices of Systems Thinkers. Lebanon, NH: ISEE Systems, 2010. 3-21. Print.
4. Forrester, Jay W. "Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century." Creative Learning Exchange. 2009. Web. 11 Feb. 2012. <http://clexchange.org/ftp/documents/whyk12sd/Y_2009-02LearningThroughSD.pdf>.

Value Lenses

A few years ago, my young niece was afraid of a large white rabbit (person in costume), I gave her my sunglasses and told her the rabbit couldn’t see her.  She believed me and we walked hand-in-hand right past him.  She was so happy!

Republican politicians tell their voters to look at the world thru only three value lenses: individual rights, personal responsibility and private authority.  They demand their voters reject collective rights, collective responsibility and public authority - the values of Democrats.  

However, Democrats include all six values in their policies, communication and voting.  Why don’t Republicans?  Because Republicans require an enemy, a boogyman and a devil.  Republicans live in a bubble of misinformation, propaganda and lies to keep their loyal voters.

Li-ion Cost Decline and Forecast Using Cumulative Production Volume

Li-ion Cost Decline and Forecast

Using Cumulative Production Volume

Data Source: Ark Invest

https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/wrights-law-2/

 Wright’s Law Formula Y=aX^b

Y = cumulative average $/kWh

X = cumulative kWh produced

a = cost required to produce 1st unit

b = slope of the function

For example, the graph shows Li-ion cost decline and forecast using cumulative production volume.  Estimating the values from the graph and entering them into a spreadsheet, then estimating the linear equation using natural log values (LN).

LN(Y) = 9.2 - 0.55*LN(X)

As a result, we forecast future battery cost declines based on increases in cumulative kWh produced.  2020 costs average $100/kWh.  Estimated 2021 and 2022 are $95/kWh and $90/kWh respectively.  However Tesla has stated they have a new 10 gWh factory producing the new 4680 cells in California at full capacity by 2022.  This means Tesla will probably be producing batteries at about $40/kWh from the 10gWh factory and the older designed batteries and Nevada factory will still be at $90/kWh.

This aligns with Tesla’s estimate that they will reduce $/kWh battery costs by about 50 percent in 2022 when operating at full capacity.  As volume increases, based on scaling up to Terawatt-hour factories (probably in Texas and Berlin), then the battery costs per kWh will continue to decline until they are a commodity both for vehicles and grid scale, residential or commercial energy storage.

Millenial Generation (Born 1982 - 2004)

Our lives, our sacred honor and our Democracy are all on the line November 3, 2020.  Each Generation approaches this kind of tipping point in history with a different attitude.  GenX (Born 1961 - 1981) believe individual responsibility solves all problems.  They expect nothing from government and receive nothing.  The majority of GenX will be on the losing side of the election in November.

Millennials remain incredibly optimistic because they know who will win the election and lead America out of this multi-crisis era.  Millennials will continue to adapt and change, and fit into whatever happens.  Millennials experience all the chaos, destruction and turmoil in society.  How do they remain optimistic?

Optimism saves Millennials from following the path described by the current Administration.  Millennials believe in Community and learned to be risk averse. Millennials believe you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.  Millennials have been told they are special since they were born and so they take care of themselves because everyone expects great things from them.

There will be tremendous wealth destruction over the next 5 to 10 years as the fossil fuel industry wealth degrades and their influence on politicians plummets to nothing.  The old social order also gets destroyed with the shift away from Republican and Conservative values toward Democracy and collective values.

As then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wrote in his 1922 book American Individualism: "Individualism has been the primary force of American civilization for three centuries.”  Individual responsibility will degrade and collective responsibility championed by Millennials will prevail in 2021.

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek said in an interview in November 2016:

“If there’s going to be a reconstruction following a failed Trump presidency, it’s going to be something completely different than what we’ve seen before. Somebody has to come up with what that’s going to be. That’s a job for political action, not political science.”

In 2020 and beyond, happiness will be based on a collectivist society not individual wealth.  Collectivist teams are where everyone is making decisions collectively, this results in more of a consensus decision making model and typically the team feels responsible for the success collectively.  The Biden/Harris nomination positions Democrats to take political action by creating collectivist teams that reject individualism offered by Republicans.  As a result, Republicans will be reduced to the minority party for decades after the Democrats success from 2020 through 2028 enters the history books.

What about Baby Boomers?  Joe Biden is one of the oldest Boomers alive today.  The top leaders in a time of multiple crises have always been from an older generation at the time.  There are GenX and Millennial leaders supporting specific agendas within the overall Democrat agenda.  However a Boomer generation leader was expected to step forward and lead a collective political action.

COVID-19 Made Impossible Possible

COVID-19 is a major public health and economic event of historical importance, potentially unprecedented in its magnitude in peacetime, with an economic contraction faster and steeper than the Great Depression.  This impossible situation opens gaps in America’s institutions, laws and healthcare system.  These gaps become opportunities for politicians after January 20, 2021.  Lifting Americans out of poverty now includes the unemployed or "working poor".

Assuming a total in early 2020 of about 160 million people, in the workforce or looking for work, with a historical 3.5% unemployment rate, that would be 5.6 million unemployed and looking for work.  In May 2020, estimated unemployment rate rising toward 30% that would be 48 million people unemployed.  The unemployed are unable to get health insurance through an employer.  This obvious gap in our private healthcare system presents an opportunity for politicians to lower the age for Medicare and expand the eligibility for ACA.

Today, COVID-19 made the impossible possible. The Pandemic has opened our eyes to the significant inequality and injustice of the American private healthcare system that depends on full employment. After January 2021, a new President will work to improve the healthcare system for everyone.

When Trump Became Irrelevant

When Trump pulled America out of the Paris Climate Agreement, he became irrelevant to the cities, counties and states approving Climate Action Plans.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Climate Crisis sounds like noise.

When Trump failed in responding to the Pandemic, he became irrelevant to the mayors, county health officers and governors managing the global COVID-19 pandemic.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Pandemic sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP passed a tax cut so that 83% of the benefits were for the top 1%, Trump and the GOP became irrelevant to 99% of workers.  When Trump and the GOP refuse to pass bills to help unemployed workers, underfunded states and the pandemic response, they become irrelevant to working Americans and the unemployed.  As a result, anything they say about the economic recovery, businesses reopening or funding sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP engaged in corruption, violating laws and damaging America’s democracy, they became irrelevant in politics.  As a result, anything they say about the November election, policies or the economy sounds like noise.

The psychology behind why some people won't wear masks

A medical doctor urges Americans to think of the mask guidance not as forced conformity, but as a necessary act of solidarity.  However this rejects all the principles that guide Republicans.  

First, Republicans believe in personal responsibility and reject the idea of taking responsibility to protect others.  Each person should be responsible for themselves.

Second, Republicans believe individual rights take priority and reject the idea that there are rights shared by everyone to protect society.  Each person has the right to act on their own.

Third, Republicans believe private authority takes priority over public authority.  Private businesses and churches have primary authority to take action and public laws, rules and regulations should not be forced on private organizations.

Pandemics don’t respond to principles, morals or ethics.  Contagious diseases like COVID-19 spread when people ignore basic science and facts to believe their own principles take priority during a Pandemic.

Democrats believe in collective responsibility and support necessary acts of solidarity.

Democrats believe in collective rights and take action to protect society.

Democrats believe in public authority taking action to have a strategy and take action to protect everyone from a Pandemic.

People who wear masks believe they are taking action in solidarity with others to protect our society.  Wearing a mask protects them and protects others.

First principles require actions of solidarity beyond just wearing a mask.

Letter on Strategy

At no point does Trump or his operation prioritize governing or responsible policymaking; not in the past, and not between now and November.  White House officials go out of their way to bolster the idea that Republicans have transitioned into a post-policy party.

Republican politicians take action based on three values:

1. Personal Responsibility
2. Individual Rights
3. Private Authority

However, GOP limits their governing strategy to support only those values.  Once in office GOP politicians do not govern and make policy to serve all Americans.  They focus on implementing their values exclusive of any collective responsibility or rights.  They focus on using public authority to force their values on everyone.

Governing and responsible policymaking require a different set of values.  Democrats take action based on these three values:

1. Collective Responsibility
2. Collective Rights
3. Public Authority

Democrats do not limit their governing strategy to support only these values. Democrats in office govern and make policy to serve all Americans. 

• That includes supporting individual rights defined in the Constitution, and federal and state law.  
• That includes supporting laws that define personal responsibility.  
• That includes supporting laws that balance private authority, states rights and federal authority.

GOP tactics win elections in states where they have suppressed voting and approved gerrymandering.  Trump does not have a strategy or tactics.  Trump’s actions represent simple transactions.  With Biden sequestered, Trump’s daily focus on transactions to help his re-election leave him vulnerable to imploding without Biden engaging directly with him a debate.

GOP and Trump do not have a strategy. Democrats have an emerging strategy that, when successful, in retrospect might be called a Grand Strategy.  That strategy includes making sure voters turnout, voters are allowed to vote and their votes are counted.

America is fighting a multi-front war.  First, there was over 30 years of Climate Crisis denial that now requires significant action.  Second, the Pandemic arrived just in time to create chaos and expose America’s vulnerabilities.  Third, the resulting Economic Recession will leave 30% of the workforce vulnerable to not being able to pay for food nor pay rent.  America won’t be returning to "normal".  We have crossed the Rubicon.

As described by author John Lewis Gaddis in his book On Grand Strategy:

• A Leader must have the enduring strategic focus of a hedgehog while retaining the tactical flexibility like a fox to adapt to changing environments that unfold over time, space and scale.
• Align potentially unlimited aspirations (hedgehog) with necessarily limited capabilities (fox).  This means matching capabilities with expectations in the context of the campaign.
• The worst leaders neglect situational awareness and seek to force events to fit their preconceived designs and worldview (hedgehog).
• The best leaders acknowledge and capitalize on the paradoxes as they unfold over time, space and scale.  They continuously adjust plans and constantly look for new opportunities by reviewing experiences and feedback from past actions.  They use self-reflection and self-criticism to improve their plans over time, space and scale.  The best leaders become strategic learners: they learn about learning.

Trump Fiddled While Americans Died

Trump Fiddled While Americans Died

"President Trump’s decision to abandon his goal of reopening the U.S. by Easter was driven, his aides said, by the number of possible deaths and polling that showed voters overwhelmingly preferred to keep containment measures in place."

Grand Strategic Actor

City of Beaverton Oregon

Proposed testimony

By approving the Climate Action Plan, Beaverton began the process of implementing a new strategy and become a Grand Strategic Actor.  All of the steps outlined in the following implementation process align with the role of a Grand Strategic Actor.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Beaverton has the capacity and resources, time and space, and scalable technology to deliver the future today.  An emerging Climate Grand Strategy happens with rapid deployment of scalable solutions to achieve net zero emissions across every city in the world.  Beaverton has a role as a Grand Strategic Actor over the next five years.  

As fossil fuels decline, renewable energy and electric transportation forecasts show continued growth and expansion to create a fully functioning electric economy.

This Clean Energy Disruption over the next five years will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. By analyzing and anticipating the consequences of this disruption, we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense, but to seize the upside, we will need to mitigate the downside.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Beaverton’s Implementation Process

First, on November 12, 2019, Beaverton approved the Climate Action Plan that set a zero-emissions goal.  In 2017, Beaverton approved an Active Transportation Plan to support human powered movement.

Second, this year Beaverton will update the Community Vision Plan and integrate the detailed action items from the Climate Action Plan into the community visioning process.  Also, the Active Transportation Plan will inform the updated Community Vision Plan.  This step implements a climate brand: "Delivering the Future Today."

Third, Beaverton supports innovative policies. In 2020, Beaverton will declare a Climate Emergency (already declared by over 1,000 other cities, regions and countries) this innovative policy statement will identify Beaverton as a Climate Grand Strategic Actor. 

When Beaverton declares support for an Oregon Green New Deal this reinforces Beaverton’s support for innovative polices. When Beaverton creates a Climate Advisory Committee this reinforces Beaverton’s support for transparency.  

These innovative policy statements, along with the Climate Advisory Committee and community visioning process, create a transparent system of feedback with the community to support implementing the Climate Action Plan.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Fourth, Beaverton will identify private funding for a majority of the investment required to complete high impact action items from the Climate Action Plan.  For example:

1. The infrastructure funding for solar energy, battery storage and micro-grid for the new Public Service Center was primarily funded through PGE. 
2. PGE will install new public EV charging stations at the corner of Broadway and Canyon
3. PGE delivers wind energy for charging the electric bus in Beaverton.
4. Beaverton’s Active Transportation Plan includes a list of funding sources for biking and walking infrastructure.  

Many private companies investing for their future, will support Beaverton Delivering the Future Today.

Finding common ground where we move forward together.

On Grand Strategy

On Grand Strategy

Author John Lewis Gaddis

Summary

A Leader must have the enduring strategic focus of a hedgehog while retaining the tactical flexibility like a fox to adapt to changing environments that unfold over time, space and scale.

Align potentially unlimited aspirations (hedgehog) with necessarily limited capabilities (fox).

This means matching capabilities with expectations in the context of the campaign.

The worst leaders neglect situational awareness and seek to force events to fit their preconceived designs and worldview (hedgehog).

The best leaders acknowledge and capitalize on the paradoxes as they unfold over time, space and scale.  They continuously adjust plans and constantly look for new opportunities by reviewing experiences and feedback from past actions.  They use self-reflection and self-criticism to improve their plans over time, space and scale.  The best leaders become strategic learners: they learn about learning.

Hedgehog and Fox

Item	Hedghog	Fox
Summary	Central vision	Pursuit of contradictory ends
Contrast	Balanced worldview	Chase scatter ideas
Knowledge	Knows one big thing	Knows many things
Movement	Moves forward in a straight path	Ability to adapt quickly
Plan	Simple idea, simple plan, push relentlessly forward	Set their budgets and plans, and promptly start adjusting course
Voice	Loud, lots of mistakes	Meek soft warnings
Strategy	Big Theory, overgeneralizing, ignoring reality	Multiple details, warning about uncertainties
Tactics	New Direction	Swiss army knife approach
Future	Rely on predictions	Probabilities
Practice	Theory	Observations
Search for	Defends well, Fair	unrelated or even contradictory pursuits
Organization	Vision and mission	Operations and maintenance
Weakness	doesn’t bother with complications, caveats, and uncertainties	Worries too much about details, uncertainty, failure, mistakes, uncontrollable weather.

Sustainable World Introduction

Purpose

Envisioning a sustainable world is not easy. What is a sustainable world that you would like to live in, that would satisfy your deepest dreams and longings?

The purpose here is to use __System Dynamics Methodology__ (stock and flow language) to describe a sustainable world in order to improve our understanding and gain insight into the dynamics of a way to implement changes in global systems of government, economics and ecology.

Key Concepts

Population, resources and pollution are the primary accumulations we are focusing on in order to understand growth. Growth in population requires a surplus of resources. As an increasing number of people demand a higher standard of living, this also requires growth in the use of resources.

As land, water and fossil fuels are consumed or removed from the commons, there is less available for others. As pollution is added to the land, water and atmosphere, the remaining common resources are not good enough for future generations to use.

The __Lockean Proviso__ supports the privatization of the commons and must remain true for the continued justification of private property rights by individuals and corporations. The __Lockean Proviso__ was devised as the criterion to determine what makes property acquisition just. When the __Lockean Proviso__ is not true then private property acquisition is unjust to others.

Problem Statement

The __Lockean Proviso__ is true when there is enough left in common for others and the quality is good enough so that others are not deprived of the use of the common resource. An unsustainable world is when the quality of the commons is depleted so that others are deprived of resources.

Criticism of Sustainable Development

Criticism of United Nations actions to encourage sustainable development reveal a traditional approach. Conservatives and Republican politicians claim the UN has a plan to stealthily impose world-wide centralized control over people, attacking private property and energy usage. Also, claiming the UN Agenda 21 (1) is “...a comprehensive plan of extreme environmentalism, social engineering, and global political control.” (2)

In a review of Systems of Survival, Peter J. Boettke (3) refers to words by Ludwig von Mises countering an argument put forth by Otto Bauer: "....rationalizing production is impossible. Without private ownership, economic planners will not be able to rationally calculate the best use of scarce capital resources." Again, referring to Mises: "...we have at our disposal only two ways to acquire resources—we can either voluntarily trade or we forcefully take."

Guardian versus Commercial Systems

There are two ways to make a living in the 21st Century. You either work for a Guardian or a Commercial organization. Lawyers are the only profession that can have their work involved in both systems. (4)

Government protects commerce, provides stability, administers justice, and enforces uniform standards. Commerce provides the economic engine and the ethical framework for trade, technological advance, and individual rights that combine to make governments worth living under. Yet these two ethical systems are mutually exclusive and cannot be rashly integrated without the risk of ethical confusion caused by a conflict of interest.

Without a proper Guardian infrastructure the Commercial system could be threatened. The laws enforced by the Guardian system to manage property rights benefit the Commercial system. But the Guardian also knows natural resources are fundamental wealth and supports the idea that fair distribution is social justice. There's ample room for improvement if Guardians lay down the policies, are serious about enforcing them, and keep their own hands off ways and means of complying. (5)

The systems of interest are the two human systems (Guardian and Commercial) and their duties and obligations towards a Sustainable World and the Common Good, and the required positive contribution of their activities to this goal (as part of a renewed Social Contract). (6) A Sustainable World will only function within the symbiotic relationship of the Guardian and Commercial systems.

Goal

In a Sustainable World, is our goal to decrease poverty? This graph (__http://tinyurl.com/73jtkft__) from the World Bank shows that extreme poverty has been decreasing over time since 1980. Over that same time period, except for Sub-Saharan Africa AIDs epidemic, life expectancy has continued to increase. So, a Sustainable World would not have as a goal to decrease poverty.

In a Sustainable World is our goal to increase profits and accumulate wealth? That is the goal of the Commercial system. However a Sustainable World would have a balancing feedback loop that allowed the Commercial system to function as intended and have the Lockean Proviso true.

The goal of a Sustainable World is not centralized control, global political control or social engineering. However, a Sustainable World does have consequences for private property and energy usage because depletion of resources and pollution of the commons can not continue indefinitely at current levels and have the Lockean Proviso remain true. For example, when the privatization of fossil fuels pollutes the land, water and atmosphere so that others are deprived of their use of those resources then the Lockean Proviso is not true and the use of fossil fuels is unjust.

Therefore, the goal of a Sustainable World is for the Lockean Proviso to always remain true in the symbiotic relationship between the Guardian and Commercial systems.

Reference Behavior Pattern

In System Dynamics, a Reference Behavior Pattern (RBP) is the observed or anticipated behavior of the real system. The RBP uses a qualitative diagram of the system consequences so that when a computer model graphs results from a simulation, the results can be compared to the RBP for validation and verification. Also, the RBP are the consequences of the system defined by the goal and so the RBP must be aligned with the goal of the system.

The RBP of a Sustainable World would show decreasing depletion of resources from the Commons and decreasing pollution of the Commons.

Boundaries

The whole earth is inside the boundaries of the Sustainable World including all the land, water and air. However, our system model is going to focus on the interaction between human organizations and the Commons. First, the system model will be a general description to start with a model that works. Then over time, the model will become more detailed, more focused and specific.

Outside the boundaries of the overall system are illegal acts, corruption, dictatorships, socialism, communism and other forms of Guardian ethical systems that do not follow the separation defined by the ethical precepts listed by Jacobs in the book "Systems of Survival".

Inside the boundaries members follow the law, rules and regulations. Inside the boundaries members change, update, revise and create new laws, rules and regulations. Inside the boundaries individuals follow the ethical precepts of the organizations where they are members. Some individuals are members of both a Commercial organization and a Guardian organization. For example, lawyers cross back and forth between the two systems in their jobs. An individual might work for a private company or have their own business, and they are a member of a non-profit organization that sets standards for their type of business that all members are required to follow.

Diagram

At the highest level a diagram of the Sustainable World includes three systems: Guardian, Commercial and Commons. First the Guardian and Commercial systems are linked in a symbiotic relationship as described earlier. Second, the Commercial system is linked to the Commons to privatize resources from the Commons and the Guardian system is linked to the Commons to protect resources by removing them from those available to be privatized. For now, these are just lines connecting bubbles. In a computer model the stocks, flows and parameters will be separated out and linked together.



Waste from the Commercial system is returned to the Commons. The Guardian system uses laws, rules and regulations to control the privatization of resources from the Commons and the flow of wastes to the Commons. Regulation of the resources and waste flows are marked with a red “R” in the diagram below.

This diagram represents accumulations and flows in an unclear way like a causal loop diagram. The diagram is aligned with the goal of the Sustainable World by having the Guardian system regulate the flows to and from the Commons so that the Lockean Proviso is true. However there are several problems. First, wastes that go back to the Commons must keep the Commons good enough for others to use. Second, the diagram does not show the recycling flows of privatized resources and wastes within the Commercial system. Third, this is too high a level of diagram to convert into a computer model.

Here is a model of resources flowing between the Commons, private property and protected property.

Bibliography

Building a System Dynamics Model Part 1: Conceptualization Retrieved August 23, 2018 https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-988-system-dynamics-self-study-fall-1998-spring-1999/readings/building.pdf

John Locke, Second Treatise of Government, Chapter V, paragraph 27.

Jacobs, Jane. Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of Commerce and Politics. New York: Random House, 1992.

Sustainable World Model

https://insightmaker.com/insight/1757/Sustainable-World