Value Lenses

A few years ago, my young niece was afraid of a large white rabbit (person in costume), I gave her my sunglasses and told her the rabbit couldn’t see her.  She believed me and we walked hand-in-hand right past him.  She was so happy!

Republican politicians tell their voters to look at the world thru only three value lenses: individual rights, personal responsibility and private authority.  They demand their voters reject collective rights, collective responsibility and public authority - the values of Democrats.  

However, Democrats include all six values in their policies, communication and voting.  Why don’t Republicans?  Because Republicans require an enemy, a boogyman and a devil.  Republicans live in a bubble of misinformation, propaganda and lies to keep their loyal voters.

Li-ion Cost Decline and Forecast Using Cumulative Production Volume

Li-ion Cost Decline and Forecast

Using Cumulative Production Volume

Data Source: Ark Invest

https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/wrights-law-2/

 Wright’s Law Formula Y=aX^b

Y = cumulative average $/kWh

X = cumulative kWh produced

a = cost required to produce 1st unit

b = slope of the function

For example, the graph shows Li-ion cost decline and forecast using cumulative production volume.  Estimating the values from the graph and entering them into a spreadsheet, then estimating the linear equation using natural log values (LN).

LN(Y) = 9.2 - 0.55*LN(X)

As a result, we forecast future battery cost declines based on increases in cumulative kWh produced.  2020 costs average $100/kWh.  Estimated 2021 and 2022 are $95/kWh and $90/kWh respectively.  However Tesla has stated they have a new 10 gWh factory producing the new 4680 cells in California at full capacity by 2022.  This means Tesla will probably be producing batteries at about $40/kWh from the 10gWh factory and the older designed batteries and Nevada factory will still be at $90/kWh.

This aligns with Tesla’s estimate that they will reduce $/kWh battery costs by about 50 percent in 2022 when operating at full capacity.  As volume increases, based on scaling up to Terawatt-hour factories (probably in Texas and Berlin), then the battery costs per kWh will continue to decline until they are a commodity both for vehicles and grid scale, residential or commercial energy storage.

Millenial Generation (Born 1982 - 2004)

Our lives, our sacred honor and our Democracy are all on the line November 3, 2020.  Each Generation approaches this kind of tipping point in history with a different attitude.  GenX (Born 1961 - 1981) believe individual responsibility solves all problems.  They expect nothing from government and receive nothing.  The majority of GenX will be on the losing side of the election in November.

Millennials remain incredibly optimistic because they know who will win the election and lead America out of this multi-crisis era.  Millennials will continue to adapt and change, and fit into whatever happens.  Millennials experience all the chaos, destruction and turmoil in society.  How do they remain optimistic?

Optimism saves Millennials from following the path described by the current Administration.  Millennials believe in Community and learned to be risk averse. Millennials believe you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.  Millennials have been told they are special since they were born and so they take care of themselves because everyone expects great things from them.

There will be tremendous wealth destruction over the next 5 to 10 years as the fossil fuel industry wealth degrades and their influence on politicians plummets to nothing.  The old social order also gets destroyed with the shift away from Republican and Conservative values toward Democracy and collective values.

As then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wrote in his 1922 book American Individualism: "Individualism has been the primary force of American civilization for three centuries.”  Individual responsibility will degrade and collective responsibility championed by Millennials will prevail in 2021.

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek said in an interview in November 2016:

“If there’s going to be a reconstruction following a failed Trump presidency, it’s going to be something completely different than what we’ve seen before. Somebody has to come up with what that’s going to be. That’s a job for political action, not political science.”

In 2020 and beyond, happiness will be based on a collectivist society not individual wealth.  Collectivist teams are where everyone is making decisions collectively, this results in more of a consensus decision making model and typically the team feels responsible for the success collectively.  The Biden/Harris nomination positions Democrats to take political action by creating collectivist teams that reject individualism offered by Republicans.  As a result, Republicans will be reduced to the minority party for decades after the Democrats success from 2020 through 2028 enters the history books.

What about Baby Boomers?  Joe Biden is one of the oldest Boomers alive today.  The top leaders in a time of multiple crises have always been from an older generation at the time.  There are GenX and Millennial leaders supporting specific agendas within the overall Democrat agenda.  However a Boomer generation leader was expected to step forward and lead a collective political action.

COVID-19 Made Impossible Possible

COVID-19 is a major public health and economic event of historical importance, potentially unprecedented in its magnitude in peacetime, with an economic contraction faster and steeper than the Great Depression.  This impossible situation opens gaps in America’s institutions, laws and healthcare system.  These gaps become opportunities for politicians after January 20, 2021.  Lifting Americans out of poverty now includes the unemployed or "working poor".

Assuming a total in early 2020 of about 160 million people, in the workforce or looking for work, with a historical 3.5% unemployment rate, that would be 5.6 million unemployed and looking for work.  In May 2020, estimated unemployment rate rising toward 30% that would be 48 million people unemployed.  The unemployed are unable to get health insurance through an employer.  This obvious gap in our private healthcare system presents an opportunity for politicians to lower the age for Medicare and expand the eligibility for ACA.

Today, COVID-19 made the impossible possible. The Pandemic has opened our eyes to the significant inequality and injustice of the American private healthcare system that depends on full employment. After January 2021, a new President will work to improve the healthcare system for everyone.

When Trump Became Irrelevant

When Trump pulled America out of the Paris Climate Agreement, he became irrelevant to the cities, counties and states approving Climate Action Plans.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Climate Crisis sounds like noise.

When Trump failed in responding to the Pandemic, he became irrelevant to the mayors, county health officers and governors managing the global COVID-19 pandemic.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Pandemic sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP passed a tax cut so that 83% of the benefits were for the top 1%, Trump and the GOP became irrelevant to 99% of workers.  When Trump and the GOP refuse to pass bills to help unemployed workers, underfunded states and the pandemic response, they become irrelevant to working Americans and the unemployed.  As a result, anything they say about the economic recovery, businesses reopening or funding sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP engaged in corruption, violating laws and damaging America’s democracy, they became irrelevant in politics.  As a result, anything they say about the November election, policies or the economy sounds like noise.

The psychology behind why some people won't wear masks

A medical doctor urges Americans to think of the mask guidance not as forced conformity, but as a necessary act of solidarity.  However this rejects all the principles that guide Republicans.  

First, Republicans believe in personal responsibility and reject the idea of taking responsibility to protect others.  Each person should be responsible for themselves.

Second, Republicans believe individual rights take priority and reject the idea that there are rights shared by everyone to protect society.  Each person has the right to act on their own.

Third, Republicans believe private authority takes priority over public authority.  Private businesses and churches have primary authority to take action and public laws, rules and regulations should not be forced on private organizations.

Pandemics don’t respond to principles, morals or ethics.  Contagious diseases like COVID-19 spread when people ignore basic science and facts to believe their own principles take priority during a Pandemic.

Democrats believe in collective responsibility and support necessary acts of solidarity.

Democrats believe in collective rights and take action to protect society.

Democrats believe in public authority taking action to have a strategy and take action to protect everyone from a Pandemic.

People who wear masks believe they are taking action in solidarity with others to protect our society.  Wearing a mask protects them and protects others.

First principles require actions of solidarity beyond just wearing a mask.

Letter on Strategy

At no point does Trump or his operation prioritize governing or responsible policymaking; not in the past, and not between now and November.  White House officials go out of their way to bolster the idea that Republicans have transitioned into a post-policy party.

Republican politicians take action based on three values:

1. Personal Responsibility
2. Individual Rights
3. Private Authority

However, GOP limits their governing strategy to support only those values.  Once in office GOP politicians do not govern and make policy to serve all Americans.  They focus on implementing their values exclusive of any collective responsibility or rights.  They focus on using public authority to force their values on everyone.

Governing and responsible policymaking require a different set of values.  Democrats take action based on these three values:

1. Collective Responsibility
2. Collective Rights
3. Public Authority

Democrats do not limit their governing strategy to support only these values. Democrats in office govern and make policy to serve all Americans. 

• That includes supporting individual rights defined in the Constitution, and federal and state law.  
• That includes supporting laws that define personal responsibility.  
• That includes supporting laws that balance private authority, states rights and federal authority.

GOP tactics win elections in states where they have suppressed voting and approved gerrymandering.  Trump does not have a strategy or tactics.  Trump’s actions represent simple transactions.  With Biden sequestered, Trump’s daily focus on transactions to help his re-election leave him vulnerable to imploding without Biden engaging directly with him a debate.

GOP and Trump do not have a strategy. Democrats have an emerging strategy that, when successful, in retrospect might be called a Grand Strategy.  That strategy includes making sure voters turnout, voters are allowed to vote and their votes are counted.

America is fighting a multi-front war.  First, there was over 30 years of Climate Crisis denial that now requires significant action.  Second, the Pandemic arrived just in time to create chaos and expose America’s vulnerabilities.  Third, the resulting Economic Recession will leave 30% of the workforce vulnerable to not being able to pay for food nor pay rent.  America won’t be returning to "normal".  We have crossed the Rubicon.

As described by author John Lewis Gaddis in his book On Grand Strategy:

• A Leader must have the enduring strategic focus of a hedgehog while retaining the tactical flexibility like a fox to adapt to changing environments that unfold over time, space and scale.
• Align potentially unlimited aspirations (hedgehog) with necessarily limited capabilities (fox).  This means matching capabilities with expectations in the context of the campaign.
• The worst leaders neglect situational awareness and seek to force events to fit their preconceived designs and worldview (hedgehog).
• The best leaders acknowledge and capitalize on the paradoxes as they unfold over time, space and scale.  They continuously adjust plans and constantly look for new opportunities by reviewing experiences and feedback from past actions.  They use self-reflection and self-criticism to improve their plans over time, space and scale.  The best leaders become strategic learners: they learn about learning.