COVID-19 Made Impossible Possible

COVID-19 is a major public health and economic event of historical importance, potentially unprecedented in its magnitude in peacetime, with an economic contraction faster and steeper than the Great Depression.  This impossible situation opens gaps in America’s institutions, laws and healthcare system.  These gaps become opportunities for politicians after January 20, 2021.  Lifting Americans out of poverty now includes the unemployed or "working poor".

Assuming a total in early 2020 of about 160 million people, in the workforce or looking for work, with a historical 3.5% unemployment rate, that would be 5.6 million unemployed and looking for work.  In May 2020, estimated unemployment rate rising toward 30% that would be 48 million people unemployed.  The unemployed are unable to get health insurance through an employer.  This obvious gap in our private healthcare system presents an opportunity for politicians to lower the age for Medicare and expand the eligibility for ACA.

Today, COVID-19 made the impossible possible. The Pandemic has opened our eyes to the significant inequality and injustice of the American private healthcare system that depends on full employment. After January 2021, a new President will work to improve the healthcare system for everyone.

When Trump Became Irrelevant

When Trump pulled America out of the Paris Climate Agreement, he became irrelevant to the cities, counties and states approving Climate Action Plans.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Climate Crisis sounds like noise.

When Trump failed in responding to the Pandemic, he became irrelevant to the mayors, county health officers and governors managing the global COVID-19 pandemic.  Since then, anything Trump says about the Pandemic sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP passed a tax cut so that 83% of the benefits were for the top 1%, Trump and the GOP became irrelevant to 99% of workers.  When Trump and the GOP refuse to pass bills to help unemployed workers, underfunded states and the pandemic response, they become irrelevant to working Americans and the unemployed.  As a result, anything they say about the economic recovery, businesses reopening or funding sounds like noise.

When Trump and the GOP engaged in corruption, violating laws and damaging America’s democracy, they became irrelevant in politics.  As a result, anything they say about the November election, policies or the economy sounds like noise.

The psychology behind why some people won't wear masks

A medical doctor urges Americans to think of the mask guidance not as forced conformity, but as a necessary act of solidarity.  However this rejects all the principles that guide Republicans.  

First, Republicans believe in personal responsibility and reject the idea of taking responsibility to protect others.  Each person should be responsible for themselves.

Second, Republicans believe individual rights take priority and reject the idea that there are rights shared by everyone to protect society.  Each person has the right to act on their own.

Third, Republicans believe private authority takes priority over public authority.  Private businesses and churches have primary authority to take action and public laws, rules and regulations should not be forced on private organizations.

Pandemics don’t respond to principles, morals or ethics.  Contagious diseases like COVID-19 spread when people ignore basic science and facts to believe their own principles take priority during a Pandemic.

Democrats believe in collective responsibility and support necessary acts of solidarity.

Democrats believe in collective rights and take action to protect society.

Democrats believe in public authority taking action to have a strategy and take action to protect everyone from a Pandemic.

People who wear masks believe they are taking action in solidarity with others to protect our society.  Wearing a mask protects them and protects others.

First principles require actions of solidarity beyond just wearing a mask.

Letter on Strategy

At no point does Trump or his operation prioritize governing or responsible policymaking; not in the past, and not between now and November.  White House officials go out of their way to bolster the idea that Republicans have transitioned into a post-policy party.

Republican politicians take action based on three values:

1. Personal Responsibility
2. Individual Rights
3. Private Authority

However, GOP limits their governing strategy to support only those values.  Once in office GOP politicians do not govern and make policy to serve all Americans.  They focus on implementing their values exclusive of any collective responsibility or rights.  They focus on using public authority to force their values on everyone.

Governing and responsible policymaking require a different set of values.  Democrats take action based on these three values:

1. Collective Responsibility
2. Collective Rights
3. Public Authority

Democrats do not limit their governing strategy to support only these values. Democrats in office govern and make policy to serve all Americans. 

• That includes supporting individual rights defined in the Constitution, and federal and state law.  
• That includes supporting laws that define personal responsibility.  
• That includes supporting laws that balance private authority, states rights and federal authority.

GOP tactics win elections in states where they have suppressed voting and approved gerrymandering.  Trump does not have a strategy or tactics.  Trump’s actions represent simple transactions.  With Biden sequestered, Trump’s daily focus on transactions to help his re-election leave him vulnerable to imploding without Biden engaging directly with him a debate.

GOP and Trump do not have a strategy. Democrats have an emerging strategy that, when successful, in retrospect might be called a Grand Strategy.  That strategy includes making sure voters turnout, voters are allowed to vote and their votes are counted.

America is fighting a multi-front war.  First, there was over 30 years of Climate Crisis denial that now requires significant action.  Second, the Pandemic arrived just in time to create chaos and expose America’s vulnerabilities.  Third, the resulting Economic Recession will leave 30% of the workforce vulnerable to not being able to pay for food nor pay rent.  America won’t be returning to "normal".  We have crossed the Rubicon.

As described by author John Lewis Gaddis in his book On Grand Strategy:

• A Leader must have the enduring strategic focus of a hedgehog while retaining the tactical flexibility like a fox to adapt to changing environments that unfold over time, space and scale.
• Align potentially unlimited aspirations (hedgehog) with necessarily limited capabilities (fox).  This means matching capabilities with expectations in the context of the campaign.
• The worst leaders neglect situational awareness and seek to force events to fit their preconceived designs and worldview (hedgehog).
• The best leaders acknowledge and capitalize on the paradoxes as they unfold over time, space and scale.  They continuously adjust plans and constantly look for new opportunities by reviewing experiences and feedback from past actions.  They use self-reflection and self-criticism to improve their plans over time, space and scale.  The best leaders become strategic learners: they learn about learning.

Trump Fiddled While Americans Died

Trump Fiddled While Americans Died

"President Trump’s decision to abandon his goal of reopening the U.S. by Easter was driven, his aides said, by the number of possible deaths and polling that showed voters overwhelmingly preferred to keep containment measures in place."

Grand Strategic Actor

City of Beaverton Oregon

Proposed testimony

By approving the Climate Action Plan, Beaverton began the process of implementing a new strategy and become a Grand Strategic Actor.  All of the steps outlined in the following implementation process align with the role of a Grand Strategic Actor.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Beaverton has the capacity and resources, time and space, and scalable technology to deliver the future today.  An emerging Climate Grand Strategy happens with rapid deployment of scalable solutions to achieve net zero emissions across every city in the world.  Beaverton has a role as a Grand Strategic Actor over the next five years.  

As fossil fuels decline, renewable energy and electric transportation forecasts show continued growth and expansion to create a fully functioning electric economy.

This Clean Energy Disruption over the next five years will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. By analyzing and anticipating the consequences of this disruption, we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense, but to seize the upside, we will need to mitigate the downside.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Beaverton’s Implementation Process

First, on November 12, 2019, Beaverton approved the Climate Action Plan that set a zero-emissions goal.  In 2017, Beaverton approved an Active Transportation Plan to support human powered movement.

Second, this year Beaverton will update the Community Vision Plan and integrate the detailed action items from the Climate Action Plan into the community visioning process.  Also, the Active Transportation Plan will inform the updated Community Vision Plan.  This step implements a climate brand: "Delivering the Future Today."

Third, Beaverton supports innovative policies. In 2020, Beaverton will declare a Climate Emergency (already declared by over 1,000 other cities, regions and countries) this innovative policy statement will identify Beaverton as a Climate Grand Strategic Actor. 

When Beaverton declares support for an Oregon Green New Deal this reinforces Beaverton’s support for innovative polices. When Beaverton creates a Climate Advisory Committee this reinforces Beaverton’s support for transparency.  

These innovative policy statements, along with the Climate Advisory Committee and community visioning process, create a transparent system of feedback with the community to support implementing the Climate Action Plan.

What I’m trying to do here is find common ground with you.

Fourth, Beaverton will identify private funding for a majority of the investment required to complete high impact action items from the Climate Action Plan.  For example:

1. The infrastructure funding for solar energy, battery storage and micro-grid for the new Public Service Center was primarily funded through PGE. 
2. PGE will install new public EV charging stations at the corner of Broadway and Canyon
3. PGE delivers wind energy for charging the electric bus in Beaverton.
4. Beaverton’s Active Transportation Plan includes a list of funding sources for biking and walking infrastructure.  

Many private companies investing for their future, will support Beaverton Delivering the Future Today.

Finding common ground where we move forward together.

On Grand Strategy

On Grand Strategy

Author John Lewis Gaddis

Summary

A Leader must have the enduring strategic focus of a hedgehog while retaining the tactical flexibility like a fox to adapt to changing environments that unfold over time, space and scale.

Align potentially unlimited aspirations (hedgehog) with necessarily limited capabilities (fox).

This means matching capabilities with expectations in the context of the campaign.

The worst leaders neglect situational awareness and seek to force events to fit their preconceived designs and worldview (hedgehog).

The best leaders acknowledge and capitalize on the paradoxes as they unfold over time, space and scale.  They continuously adjust plans and constantly look for new opportunities by reviewing experiences and feedback from past actions.  They use self-reflection and self-criticism to improve their plans over time, space and scale.  The best leaders become strategic learners: they learn about learning.

Hedgehog and Fox

Item	Hedghog	Fox
Summary	Central vision	Pursuit of contradictory ends
Contrast	Balanced worldview	Chase scatter ideas
Knowledge	Knows one big thing	Knows many things
Movement	Moves forward in a straight path	Ability to adapt quickly
Plan	Simple idea, simple plan, push relentlessly forward	Set their budgets and plans, and promptly start adjusting course
Voice	Loud, lots of mistakes	Meek soft warnings
Strategy	Big Theory, overgeneralizing, ignoring reality	Multiple details, warning about uncertainties
Tactics	New Direction	Swiss army knife approach
Future	Rely on predictions	Probabilities
Practice	Theory	Observations
Search for	Defends well, Fair	unrelated or even contradictory pursuits
Organization	Vision and mission	Operations and maintenance
Weakness	doesn’t bother with complications, caveats, and uncertainties	Worries too much about details, uncertainty, failure, mistakes, uncontrollable weather.