Dr. Katharine Hayhoe

Dr. Katharine Hayhoe is an Atmospheric Scientist originally from Canada, now a Professor in Texas. She consults with cities and municipal governments about climate change actions as well as giving public talks. She was in Portland this summer speaking at the World Affairs Council International Speakers Series.

"When Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor in the political science department at Texas Tech University in Lubbock and director of the school’s Climate Science Center, speaks to community groups, she often opens with a statement of faith. This 42-year-old atmospheric scientist is deeply religious and married to an evangelical Christian pastor. But she also begins that way because she finds it helps her connect to her audiences. “People will listen to you if they see you as someone who shares their values,” she notes. “I try to illustrate how if you are a person of faith, you should also care about climate change. It’s not always an easy argument to make. People think you’re asking them to join the Church of Al Gore. I try to show how this is about caring for others and protecting our families, communities—our way of life.” Hayhoe’s consulting work involves helping municipalities plan for climate change. After record heat waves in Chicago, for instance, her report to city officials prompted them to initiate a green-roof program, which saves money and alleviates the urban heat-island effect."

“I feel climate scientists are similar to physicians. We’ve determined the climate is running a fever. We know if nothing is done, there will be serious consequences. For me, my faith takes me further. This affects God’s creation, which is people and the earth, which we are commanded to love.”

Source: http://www.more.com/news/politics-opinion/climate-avenger-katharine-hayhoe-climate-evangelist

Leverage Points in the System

From a Systems Thinking and System Dynamics perspective, The 4th Turning crisis era escalates from using low leverage changes to high leverage. Two high leverage points include changing the goals of the system, and then changing the mindset or paradigm from where the system arises.

Millennials bring a new set of goals and mindset to the current system creating a gap or difference between the past and the future expectations.  Any difference becomes information included in narratives/stories.  The narratives/stories told by Millennials will change from low leverage changes to the system (like who they vote for) to high leverage changes.

http://www.donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

The Pope’s Encyclical marked a pivot toward a high leverage action. Intervening in the current system to change the goals and change the present mindset or paradigm of why the present system exists.  POTUS Clean Energy Plan and COP21 are weak leverage points in the system.  They deal with constants, parameters and numbers.

Here is an example of a systems perspective:

http://socap15.socialcapitalmarkets.net/2015/08/06/socap-conversations-transforming-the-system/

Step Up

When we need to step up and be an advocate for a loved one with medical issues, we do whatever is required. My brother could not drive after having a brain operation to remove a tumor and then another to remove scare tissue from the first operation.  My sister stepped up and was his advocate with the medical professionals. I volunteered to drive him to appointments, the grocery store and other errands. After I retired, and my brother developed leukemia, I drove him to regular blood treatments.  We stepped up when we were needed. Sadly, my brother died from complications due to the leukemia.

There are many stories of people stepping up to advocate for a loved one. A child needs an advocate with teachers and administrators at school. An elderly parent needs an advocate with medical professionals. Volunteer advocates help children in Family Court cases. Children left with their grandmother need an advocate everyday for everything. Non-profit organizations advocate for special constituents that might otherwise not get their basic needs met so that they have access to clean drinking water, food safe to eat, shelter and security.

On a global scale, there are many non-profit organizations advocating for the poor, low-income, refugees and disaster victims. The Catholic Church is an advocate for the poor.  Pope Francis was born in Argentina and witnessed first hand the suffering of the poor.  On June 18, 2015, the first ecological encyclical “LAUDATO SI’ “ was published to advocate for the poor who now and will continue to suffer the worst consequences of climate change.  In paragraph 105, Pope Francis wrote, “Our immense technological development has not been accompanied by a development in human responsibility, values and conscience.”

Living in America, how can I be responsible for the poor in Pakistan or France? The poor who die from complications caused by high summer temperatures. The poor in Asia who die from flooding caused by typhoons with higher than average rainfall.  The refugees from Syria driven from their homes by civil war that started after farmers had moved to cities because of drought.  The refugees dying while attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Greece or Italy. How can I be responsible for the deaths of poor people worldwide that are a consequence of climate change?

Extreme weather events have driven food prices to record highs.  For example, on August 6,  2010 Russia banned the export of wheat after drought reduced the harvest and wildfires burned many acres. The price of food in Tunisia and Egypt increased dramatically in a short time, and that led to food riots. Rising food prices destabilized governments in the Middle East and resulted in the Arab Spring.

What happens in China affects the air pollution in America.  Pollutants travel in the wind over the Pacific Ocean and are detected on the west coast of America.  Pollution from coal plants in China can be measured in America.  CO2 emissions from America can be measured in the worldwide increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  The heat absorbed by the atmosphere increases when there is more CO2 and the poor worldwide suffer the consequences.

Therefore causality, a long chain of cause and effect, links my CO2 emissions with the death of poor people worldwide. What can I do? As an individual, I can not shutdown the coal plants in America nor convert the transportation industry to zero emission buses, trucks and cars.  I can join with others to advocate for the reduction of CO2 emissions and support the new EPA Clean Energy Plan of 2015. 

First, for many years we have paid extra on our electric bill to purchase 100% renewable energy and we use a high efficiency heat pump for heating and air conditioning. Second, we replaced a car with a Prius to use less gasoline and we are planning on buying an electric car in the near future.

We reduced our purchases of consumer goods and other polluting activities.  We have reduced our waste at home.  We reuse items, donate items for reuse, and give away items to family, friends and neighbors.  We recycle everything possible every week.

Oregon was the first to announce the shutdown by 2020 of a coal plant.  In December 2010, the state's environmental protection agency approved the plans for the 2020 closing of the 550MW Boardman Coal Plant. The summer of 2015 saw the announcement of the 200th coal plant planned for shutdown.  

Also, President Obama and the EPA announced on August 3, 2015 the Clean Power Plan that will increase the number of coal plants that shutdown.  Total CO2 emissions need to be reduced in the present and then faster over time so that eventually, we have zero CO2 emissions.  The Clean Power Plan is only catching up to what the States have already done and will not get us to zero CO2 emissions.  We need to do more faster.

As an advocate for the poor, Pope Francis implied we ought to ask ourselves: 

• How might I support development in human responsibility, values and conscience to change the structure of the system we have in America? 
• How might I accept responsibility, advocate values and express a conscience that supports America developing human responsibility, values and conscience to deal with climate change?

It Can't Be Done

It Can’t Be Done

Easter, Fifth Avenue, 1900.One car visible, coming towards foreground.

1899

Oakman (1899–1900)

Packard Model A (1899–1900)

1900

Lozier (1900–1915)

Packard Model B (1900–190)

Skene (1900–1901)

The Belmont Coach, 1905, four horses pulling coach. Dogs run free.

1902 - First Cadillac

1903 - Ford Model A

Eight new models introduced in 1904 and eight more in 1905.

Herald Square, 1909. Skyscraper beyond is NY Times Building in Times Sq. Cars have replaced horses.

Fifteen new models introduced 1906 to 1909.

Images Source: http://www.nyc-architecture.com/SPEC/GAL-BW.htm

Climate Strategy Framework

DRAFT September 2015

By Richard Turnock

The Climate Strategy Framework emerges from a three dimensional framework of Core Ideas, Practices and System Concepts as defined in the Next Generation Science Standards.  Climate Practices guide investigations and the design thinking for problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Climate Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.  The System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Climate Practices.

Core Ideas

The Core Ideas are the first dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework.  They are meant to be applied by individuals, neighbors, groups, cities, counties, states and at the federal level. Anyone, anywhere, at any time can implement these ideas.  These are actionable ideas.

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate.  We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.  We must then work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens. We must deal with insecure sources of water, food and shelter, the migration of refugees and the violence of collapsing governments.   

In America, refugees will migrate to avoid the lack of drinking water, high food prices and inadequate protection from high temperatures.  Refugees will migrate north and west. Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska plus southern Canada will experience an influx of migrants.  Those with vehicles, money and privilege will be invisible.  The visible refugees will be low income and poor, without private transportation and lacking jobs when they arrive.

Second, we must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels.  Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement. 

Third, we must learn to adapt faster, mitigate risks faster, communicate faster and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale.  The target needs to start with reduced CO2 emissions, then jump to net zero emissions and finally sequestering CO2 to reduce the concentration in the atmosphere.

The feedback loops in the atmosphere have a time period of decades.  Any decrease in CO2 emissions will not slow down the rising average temperature until at least ten years after they happen. Quarterly income statements are not going to tell the story of climate change. 

From 2015-2025, a critical capability is that we must improve the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above. We will not survive just by stopping CO2 emissions and investing in renewables.  We must also invest in carbon sinks to take CO2 out of the atmosphere.

List of Core Ideas

1. Adapt
2. Mitigate Risks
3. Communicate
4. Invest in Renewable Energy
5. Stop CO2 emissions
6. Remove CO2 from the atmosphere

Climate Practices

These Climate Practices are a second dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework. The Practices guide investigations and design of problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.

The difference between success and failure is asking questions to support specifying criteria and constraints for acceptable solutions; generating and evaluating multiple solutions; building and testing prototypes; and optimizing a solution.  The Design Thinking Process used by Stanford dSchool is an example.  Also, here is an example of science and engineering practices paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Ask questions and define problems

2. Develop and use models

3. Plan and carry out investigations

4. Analyze and interpret data

5. Use mathematics and computational thinking

6. Construct explanations and designing solutions

7. Engage in argument from evidence

8. Obtain, evaluate, and communicate information

System Concepts

These System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Practices. System Concepts reveal the consequences of whole systems, while each of the Core Ideas are a way to divide a large issue like Climate Change into smaller problems. These concepts apply to all the Core Ideas and Practices. 

Systems Thinking is a way of describing the qualitative process of applying System Concepts to Climate Change.  System Dynamics implements a quantitative process.

Systems Thinkers see problems entirely differently. They see immense reinforcing feedback loops causing swarms of agents to exploit the Earth for their own benefit and population growth. This mode becomes unsustainable when balancing feedback loops finally start to push back as we approach environmental limits. 

Systems Thinkers do not see people’s misbehavior as the core problem. Instead, they see the structure of the system causing that misbehavior. To solve the problem, the system structure has to be understood and changed, so that feedback loops can be redesigned to cause people to behave more sustainably as a natural part of their everyday existence. (Dr. Michael von Kutzschenbach, http://www.bta-online.com/blog/2014/a-new-wave-to-management-thinking/)

These System Concepts were paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Patterns
2. Cause and Effect
3. Systems and System Models
4. Function and Structure of Systems
5. Stability and Dynamics of Systems

Reference:

Next Generation Science Standards

http://www.nextgenscience.org/next-generation-science-standards

How to Save the Planet

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate. We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.

Second, adapting and mitigating risks is not enough.  To survive, we must work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens.

Third, adapting and mitigating risks faster is not enough.  We must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels. Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement on a global scale.

Fourth, we must learn to adapt, mitigate risks, communicate and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale. Improving the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above is a critical capability.

Fifth, as the need to adapt and mitigate risks eases, we need to continue to communicate and enhance our capabilities to govern the commons on a global scale.

Endnote

A lack of attention to a capability gap while focusing on 'working harder' in the short term fails.

The Fourth Turning

“During Crises, great peril provokes a societal consensus, an ethic of personal sacrifice, and strong institutional order.”  (Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: Morrow, 1991.)

Introduction

The 4th Turning began at the beginning of the Great Recession. According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and thus extended over 19 months. As a general statement, the current 4th Turning began in 2008.

According to Strauss and Howe’s book “The Fourth Turning” this would align with the prior 4th Turning that started with the Great Depression in 1929 and lasted until the end of WWII, about 17 years. A Turning might last more or less than 20 years, with the overall cycle averaging out over time to four turnings with a total of 80 years.

The current Fourth Turning, if 20 years long, would extend to 2028.  The rhythm of the Fourth Turning begins with a major crisis like the Great Recession and ends with an all out fight to the death at the climax. Between those bookends in time, a crisis begins to spread from one area of the world to others. In our case, the consequences of  climate change are going to cause people worldwide to adapt, mitigate and demand leadership.

Societal Consensus

In 2015, we arrived at a societal consensus on the main topics of the culture wars from the past to close the final chapter on the prior Unraveling, the 3rd Turning.  Gay marriage is legal, there is health care for everyone through the ACA (Obamacare), and abortion, contraception and women’s health care are available.  There are still a few locations where these issues might not be completely settled.  Even though our politicians are still attempting to divide people into red and blue voters, society has moved beyond the old culture wars and is beginning to build momentum toward the climax of the crisis era.

During this 4th Turning, we are experiencing a growing societal consensus about adapting, mitigating and responding to Climate Change. In 2015, the increasing support for climate action means the annual meeting schedule for December in Paris has everyone’s attention. A global coordinated response to climate change means helping those most effected by the consequences.  The Pope stated on June 18 in his Encyclical that the poor are going to experience the consequences of climate change while those who can adapt and mitigate the consequences will not suffer or sacrifice.

Sacrifice

The second element is an ethic of personal sacrifice. Here are four quotes (bold is my emphasis) from the Pope’s Encyclical (On Care For Our Common Home, June 18, 2015):

“…Bartholomew has drawn attention to the ethical and spiritual roots of environmental problems, which require that we look for solutions not only in technology but in a change of humanity; otherwise we would be dealing merely with symptoms. He asks us to replace consumption with sacrifice, greed with generosity, wastefulness with a spirit of sharing, an asceticism which “entails learning to give, and not simply to give up…”

“Any technical solution which science claims to offer will be powerless to solve the serious problems of our world if humanity loses its compass, if we lose sight of the great motivations which make it possible for us to live in harmony, to make sacrifices and to treat others well.”

“…we are called quietly to imitate his generosity in self-sacrifice and good works…”

“By developing our individual, God-given capacities, an ecological conversion can inspire us to greater creativity and enthusiasm in resolving the world’s problems and in offering ourselves to God “as a living sacrifice, holy and acceptable” (Rom 12:1).”

President Obama has called for shared sacrifice more than once.

“America can do whatever we set our mind to. That is the story of our history, whether it's the pursuit of prosperity for our people, or the struggle for equality for all our citizens; our commitment to stand up for our values abroad, and our sacrifices to make the world a safer place. Let us remember that we can do these things not just because of wealth or power, but because of who we are: one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”  May 2, 2011, President Obama’s Statement on the Death of Osama bin Laden.

“If everybody took an attitude of shared sacrifice ... we can solve our deficit and debt problem next week, and it wouldn't require radical changes.” August 17, 2011 as reported by CNN.

“Acts of sacrifice and decency without regard to what's in it for you create a ripple effect. Ones that lift up families and communities, that spread opportunity.” May 13, 2009, President Obama Gives Commencement Address at Arizona State University.

As we continue to move deeper into the 4th Turning, the demand for shared sacrifice will increase. During a 4th Turning the demand for leadership increases but the supply is low in the beginning.  Aligned with this, the supply of sacrifices offered by people has been limited however the demand for shared sacrifice will increase.  During the climax of the 4th Turning, the Pope and the US President are just two leaders who will emphasize shared sacrifice.

Strong Institutional Order

To deal with a global threat like the consequences of climate change, strong multinational institutions are going to need to be created and old ones reorganized.  For example, a new organization is Plan B (http://bteam.org/planb/) includes a multinational team of business executives investing in climate actions. An existing organization, the Catholic Church, is pivoting toward being a leader in advocating for the poor in the fight against the consequences of climate change that are going to fall disproportionately on the poor.

The 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21/CMP11), otherwise known as “Paris 2015” will be from November 30 to December 11, 2015. COP21 will be a crucial conference, as it needs to achieve a new international agreement on the climate, applicable to all countries, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C.  The Pope’s Encyclical, President Obama’s agreement with China on reducing GHG emissions and many meetings leading up to the COP21 event have all contributed to strengthening the UN as a leading institution.

As we move forward from 2015, we will experience increasing alignment of institutional goals and objectives with those of consumers, voters, businesses, governments, non-profits, religious organizations, and many NGOs that support the poor and refugees.

Conclusion

The 4th Turning climax crisis will play out across the whole planet. Decreasing food from the oceans and land, increasing heat waves and floods, violent gangs rampaging within unstable countries, will all contribute to tens of millions of people migrating across borders.  We are about five years away from a catalyst that will mark the beginning of the climax to the crisis.  Just like WWII had a beginning, this crisis climax will have a beginning and an end. Somewhere in the 2020 to 2028 time frame the crisis era climax will intensify across the whole earth.  We will be navigating a strait, the very existence of which is denied.