Sustainable World Introduction

Purpose

Envisioning a sustainable world is not easy. What is a sustainable world that you would like to live in, that would satisfy your deepest dreams and longings?

The purpose here is to use __System Dynamics Methodology__ (stock and flow language) to describe a sustainable world in order to improve our understanding and gain insight into the dynamics of a way to implement changes in global systems of government, economics and ecology.

Key Concepts

Population, resources and pollution are the primary accumulations we are focusing on in order to understand growth. Growth in population requires a surplus of resources. As an increasing number of people demand a higher standard of living, this also requires growth in the use of resources.

As land, water and fossil fuels are consumed or removed from the commons, there is less available for others. As pollution is added to the land, water and atmosphere, the remaining common resources are not good enough for future generations to use.

The __Lockean Proviso__ supports the privatization of the commons and must remain true for the continued justification of private property rights by individuals and corporations. The __Lockean Proviso__ was devised as the criterion to determine what makes property acquisition just. When the __Lockean Proviso__ is not true then private property acquisition is unjust to others.

Problem Statement

The __Lockean Proviso__ is true when there is enough left in common for others and the quality is good enough so that others are not deprived of the use of the common resource. An unsustainable world is when the quality of the commons is depleted so that others are deprived of resources.

Criticism of Sustainable Development

Criticism of United Nations actions to encourage sustainable development reveal a traditional approach. Conservatives and Republican politicians claim the UN has a plan to stealthily impose world-wide centralized control over people, attacking private property and energy usage. Also, claiming the UN Agenda 21 (1) is “...a comprehensive plan of extreme environmentalism, social engineering, and global political control.” (2)

In a review of Systems of Survival, Peter J. Boettke (3) refers to words by Ludwig von Mises countering an argument put forth by Otto Bauer: "....rationalizing production is impossible. Without private ownership, economic planners will not be able to rationally calculate the best use of scarce capital resources." Again, referring to Mises: "...we have at our disposal only two ways to acquire resources—we can either voluntarily trade or we forcefully take."

Guardian versus Commercial Systems

There are two ways to make a living in the 21st Century. You either work for a Guardian or a Commercial organization. Lawyers are the only profession that can have their work involved in both systems. (4)

Government protects commerce, provides stability, administers justice, and enforces uniform standards. Commerce provides the economic engine and the ethical framework for trade, technological advance, and individual rights that combine to make governments worth living under. Yet these two ethical systems are mutually exclusive and cannot be rashly integrated without the risk of ethical confusion caused by a conflict of interest.

Without a proper Guardian infrastructure the Commercial system could be threatened. The laws enforced by the Guardian system to manage property rights benefit the Commercial system. But the Guardian also knows natural resources are fundamental wealth and supports the idea that fair distribution is social justice. There's ample room for improvement if Guardians lay down the policies, are serious about enforcing them, and keep their own hands off ways and means of complying. (5)

The systems of interest are the two human systems (Guardian and Commercial) and their duties and obligations towards a Sustainable World and the Common Good, and the required positive contribution of their activities to this goal (as part of a renewed Social Contract). (6) A Sustainable World will only function within the symbiotic relationship of the Guardian and Commercial systems.

Goal

In a Sustainable World, is our goal to decrease poverty? This graph (__http://tinyurl.com/73jtkft__) from the World Bank shows that extreme poverty has been decreasing over time since 1980. Over that same time period, except for Sub-Saharan Africa AIDs epidemic, life expectancy has continued to increase. So, a Sustainable World would not have as a goal to decrease poverty.

In a Sustainable World is our goal to increase profits and accumulate wealth? That is the goal of the Commercial system. However a Sustainable World would have a balancing feedback loop that allowed the Commercial system to function as intended and have the Lockean Proviso true.

The goal of a Sustainable World is not centralized control, global political control or social engineering. However, a Sustainable World does have consequences for private property and energy usage because depletion of resources and pollution of the commons can not continue indefinitely at current levels and have the Lockean Proviso remain true. For example, when the privatization of fossil fuels pollutes the land, water and atmosphere so that others are deprived of their use of those resources then the Lockean Proviso is not true and the use of fossil fuels is unjust.

Therefore, the goal of a Sustainable World is for the Lockean Proviso to always remain true in the symbiotic relationship between the Guardian and Commercial systems.

Reference Behavior Pattern

In System Dynamics, a Reference Behavior Pattern (RBP) is the observed or anticipated behavior of the real system. The RBP uses a qualitative diagram of the system consequences so that when a computer model graphs results from a simulation, the results can be compared to the RBP for validation and verification. Also, the RBP are the consequences of the system defined by the goal and so the RBP must be aligned with the goal of the system.

The RBP of a Sustainable World would show decreasing depletion of resources from the Commons and decreasing pollution of the Commons.

Boundaries

The whole earth is inside the boundaries of the Sustainable World including all the land, water and air. However, our system model is going to focus on the interaction between human organizations and the Commons. First, the system model will be a general description to start with a model that works. Then over time, the model will become more detailed, more focused and specific.

Outside the boundaries of the overall system are illegal acts, corruption, dictatorships, socialism, communism and other forms of Guardian ethical systems that do not follow the separation defined by the ethical precepts listed by Jacobs in the book "Systems of Survival".

Inside the boundaries members follow the law, rules and regulations. Inside the boundaries members change, update, revise and create new laws, rules and regulations. Inside the boundaries individuals follow the ethical precepts of the organizations where they are members. Some individuals are members of both a Commercial organization and a Guardian organization. For example, lawyers cross back and forth between the two systems in their jobs. An individual might work for a private company or have their own business, and they are a member of a non-profit organization that sets standards for their type of business that all members are required to follow.

Diagram

At the highest level a diagram of the Sustainable World includes three systems: Guardian, Commercial and Commons. First the Guardian and Commercial systems are linked in a symbiotic relationship as described earlier. Second, the Commercial system is linked to the Commons to privatize resources from the Commons and the Guardian system is linked to the Commons to protect resources by removing them from those available to be privatized. For now, these are just lines connecting bubbles. In a computer model the stocks, flows and parameters will be separated out and linked together.



Waste from the Commercial system is returned to the Commons. The Guardian system uses laws, rules and regulations to control the privatization of resources from the Commons and the flow of wastes to the Commons. Regulation of the resources and waste flows are marked with a red “R” in the diagram below.

This diagram represents accumulations and flows in an unclear way like a causal loop diagram. The diagram is aligned with the goal of the Sustainable World by having the Guardian system regulate the flows to and from the Commons so that the Lockean Proviso is true. However there are several problems. First, wastes that go back to the Commons must keep the Commons good enough for others to use. Second, the diagram does not show the recycling flows of privatized resources and wastes within the Commercial system. Third, this is too high a level of diagram to convert into a computer model.

Here is a model of resources flowing between the Commons, private property and protected property.

Bibliography

Building a System Dynamics Model Part 1: Conceptualization Retrieved August 23, 2018 https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-988-system-dynamics-self-study-fall-1998-spring-1999/readings/building.pdf

John Locke, Second Treatise of Government, Chapter V, paragraph 27.

Jacobs, Jane. Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of Commerce and Politics. New York: Random House, 1992.

Sustainable World Model

https://insightmaker.com/insight/1757/Sustainable-World

Grand Strategy to Fight COVID-19

Grand Strategy to Fight COVID-19


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html

Do You Believe In Air?

One human said to another: “This thing called air; do you believe in it?”  

Immersed in air from our first breath to our last; we’re oblivious to air like a fish swims in water.

Still here in the 20th Century, the Greek gods of the sea, underground and sky were awakened by humans .  The god of oceans and rising sea levels, Poseidon fuels hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons.  The god of the dark underground world of geology, marshes and methane hydrates, Hades fuels methane burping and throws a major tantrum when awakened.  The god of sky, cloud and thunder, Zeus has a fever and seems increasingly pissed off.

The gods have exaggerated personalities and are plagued with personal flaws and negative emotions despite their immortality and superhero-like powers.  However, humans interfered with the air by increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere.  This awakened the sleeping gods from below and above, and they started acting wildly and uncontrollably. The home of the gods has a temperature hotter than at any time in three million years.

Americans have no power over gods of sea, underground and sky. Americans believe that we are the dominant nation on the planet, that we wield the power and that we are entitled to exploit other humans and species.  This arrogance, irrational control, and technology give us the illusion of mastery over the earth.

Living on the earth with each other for hundreds of thousands of years, the recent deaths of forests, animals and humans progressed until the gods were awakened to the ecocide.  WWII caused the genocide of over 6 million humans. 

Ecocide will reduce the global population by one billion humans and risk generations of harm to billions more in the future.

This thing called air; do you believe in it?

Collectivism compared to Individualism

People Alignment vs Individualism

The Sunrise Movement is up against centuries of American Individualism that in 2020 needs to begin to change to align with the Sunrise Movement Principles.  As then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover wrote in his 1922 book "American Individualism": "Individualism has been the primary force of American civilization for three centuries."

Theory: The Sunrise Movement and the overall Climate Movement are fighting a war with Individualism.  Compare the American past, our history and social norms with the principles of the Sunrise Movement.

Individualism:  the prioritization or emphasis of the individual over the entire group. Individualistic cultures are oriented around the self, and being independent instead of identifying with a group mentality.

Without individualism, James Elishama Smith argued in the 1800s, individuals cannot amass property to increase one's happiness.  In 2020 and beyond, happiness will be based on a collectivist society not individual wealth.

Individualistic Teams: The individuals in this team feel independent from each other, typically based on their skillset and feel they are the person responsible for a piece of the puzzle. The decisions and choices made in the team are expected by each individual.

Collectivist Teams: Collectivist teams are where everyone is making decisions collectively, this results in more of a consensus decision making model and typically the team feels responsible for the success collectively.

There is a spectrum of behaviors at the societal level ranging from highly individualistic societies through mixed societies to collectivist.

Sunrise Principles

These are guidelines of the Sunrise Movement that all commit to uphold. Any action that does not embody these principles is not a Sunrise action.

1. We are a movement to stop climate change and create millions of good-paying jobs in the process.
2. We grow our power through talking to our communities. 
3. We are Americans from all walks of life.
4. We are nonviolent in word and deed. 
5. We tell our stories and we honor each other's stories. 
6. We ask for help and we give what we can. 
7. We take initiative.
8. We embrace experimentation and we learn together. 
9. We take care of ourselves, each other, and our shared home. 
10. We stand with other movements for change. 
11. We shine bright.

Beaverton for the People Project

Mission: Transition from car centric to people centric city.

Goal: Disrupt traffic in Beaverton to pressure Mayor and City Council.  Demand city return streets to the people by implementing the Active Transportation Plan faster and completely. (Yes, Washington County and ODOT control Canyon Road changes, but city has influence.)

Objectives:

1. Beaverton declares a climate emergency
2. Beaverton creates Climate Advisory Committee
3. Beaverton increases implementation rate, at increasing locations and across the whole city the recommendations in the Active Transportation Plan.

Phase One

Measure North/South traffic light timing along Canyon Road.  Measure timing with and without triggering the pedestrian walk signal.  Don’t use East/West crosswalks.  Does triggering the walk signal cause a longer wait time for traffic?

Count, list and map the target intersections on Canyon Road between Cedar Hills Blvd and east to highway 217.  Recruit people to work at intersections.

Phase Two

Recruit and train people to work in shifts at walk signals on Canyon Road.

Schedule days and times when traffic disruption will occur.

Prepare banners and signs.

Create communications plan to notify TV Fire & Rescue, Police, City and Media.

Create social media plan for live broadcasting of events and recording of results.

Phase Three

Implement plans.

Place a person at each crosswalk on Canyon Road between cedar hills blvd and 217.

Have them go back and forth using the crosswalk lights.

Don’t use East/West crosswalks, only the North/South on Canyon and Farmington.

Phase Four

Escalation of Disruption

Disrupting over time and across space.  

Make the disruption scalable to include Farmington.

Green New Deal

Green New Deal Legislation

The specific term "Green New Deal" was first used by Pulitzer Prize-winner Thomas Friedman in January 2007.  Friedman wrote a column for the NYT.   Since then the GND was used by several politicians to describe making systemic changes.

A national Green New Deal was proposed in the 116th Congress as House Resolution 109, dated February 7, 2019.  While we know about the Climate Crisis and the GND idea, HR 109 was the most detailed plan yet presented to the American people to transform the economy.  Even so, HR109 remains vague, and more a set of principles and goals rather than policies with specific funding sources.

An Oregon Green New Deal was proposed by organizations lead by Oregon Just Transition Alliance (OJTA).  The Oregon GND was last update 1/23/19 and remains a work in progress.

The primary difference between the above two GND proposals deals with the phaseout of fossil fuel infrastructure in the Oregon GND proposal but not in the national GND.  Neither GND proposal has detailed funding sources specific for each goal.

A third GND proposal called "The Green New Deal for Public Housing Act" was proposed by Sen. Sanders and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez in November 2019.  The bill would address current Climate Crisis and the affordable house crisis.  The bill would create seven grant programs under one application process to modernize the US public housing infrastructure.

2019 Transportation and Energy

The decoupling of fossil fuels from economic growth, something not imaginable for most of the industrial era, began to happen in relative and absolute measures.  China, California and the UK sales of new ICE vehicles peaked in 2017-2018 and declines continue through 2019.  This lowers the demand for oil, and causes prices at the margin to decline.  No new investment in fossil fuel extraction will happen without demand increasing.  Decoupling also happens when inequality leads to people not being able to afford a new car so they live in an urban area and use public transit, bike and walk.

Vehicle sales continue to fall in almost every major market while GDP grows. This remains new territory for investors.  The real impact we expect includes new mobility models and generational shifts.  Implementing a GND would mainstream the mechanisms behind this trend and make GND goals achievable.

Consumers began in 2017 delaying new vehicle purchases until the acknowledged tech of the future meets their price/performance threshold.  This causes sales of new ICE vehicles to drop and sales slow for new EVs (continue to increase at a slower rate).

Any GND at the national or state level will reflect what has already happened in the economy.  All the goals of HR109 and Oregon’s GND began happening prior to legislation.

For example, linear growth of solar in a business-as-usual projection has been consistently falsified.  Solar energy will grow globally from 10 GW in 2010 to almost 120 GW in 2020.  That’s greater than 7.2 percent per year compound growth rate, without a GND.

Transportation and energy continue decoupling from fossil fuels faster and faster as the market price of electric transportation and renewables falls below fossil fuel alternatives.

Energy Efficiency

Given an abundance of electricity from renewable energy, why should we focus on energy efficiency?  During the transition to an electric economy, investments in energy efficiency reduce the demand for remaining fossil fuel generation.  The Green New Deal for Public Housing Act focuses resources on weatherizing, electrifying and modernizing our public housing to serve as a model of efficiency, sustainability and resiliency for the rest of America.

Conclusion

Having a grand strategy without specific details for funding and implementation sounds like someone describing a dream or fantasy world.  Expressing pessimism of the GND or cynicism about the future by reporting all the details of how things could go wrong, sound like someone saying they don’t expect anything will get better or they don’t want things to change.

Leadership requires holding two approaches in our mind at the same time.  We need a Grand Strategy based on principles and goals, and detailed policies with specific funding sources.  Linking and aligning these two approaches happens when leaders step forward to take action.

198 Non-Violent Methods

198 Non-Violent Methods

By Gene Sharp

https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/

Under the category of "Methods of Social Noncooperation", boycotts ostracize people not complying with new social norms.  A selective social boycott leverages the overall mission and goals of Extinction Rebellion:

"We are facing ecological collapse due to the effects of climate change – and the fashion industry plays a big role in this. As part of Extinction Rebellion’s #XR52 weeks of direct action, we urge people to #BOYCOTTFASHION for a whole year, in order to disrupt business-as-usual and send a message to government, industry and public alike that enough is enough."

As an example, Greta Thunberg says she only buys what she needs.  Anyone noticing what she wears, knows that she walks her talk.