Social Movements and Market Transformations

Lessons From HIV/AIDS and Climate Change

http://isq.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/02/13/isq.sqv022.full

Hypothesis 1:  Market transformation is more feasible the fewer the number of product lines that have to be targeted by activists.

Hypothesis 2:  Global market transformation is more feasible when product markets are more tightly integrated across borders.

Hypothesis 3:  Market transformation is more feasible in concentrated than fragmented markets.

Hypothesis 4:  The more dependent firms are on rents that derive from social constructions or rules that were recently enacted (for example, their brand equity or globally contested regulatory frameworks), the more likely the product market can be transformed.

China has the largest share of demand for coal and is responsible for nearly 50 percent of total global demand.  China’s actions will have major consequences for the world. While China’s central government has formidable capabilities with respect to regulating coal, it has found it difficult to shift actors to a low carbon path, given that two-thirds of the country’s primary energy demand comes from coal.

For these efforts to succeed and accumulate, advocates will have to change markets for electricity and coal in all major markets responsible for a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions, including China, the European Union, and more of the United States.

market transformation is more feasible in concentrated markets than diffuse ones

In political systems with few veto players, only a few actors need to be convinced to change policy, so change can cascade across the polity quickly if the veto players are persuaded. However, if they are not persuaded, change can be postponed indefinitely.

attack the social legitimacy of fossil fuel profits and their source of rents.

disruptive technologies have been able to penetrate electricity markets:  wind and solar energy are challenging coal fired generation at utility scale.  Social constructs, such as subsidies and regulations, were developed for fossil fuels over the past 100 years.  This is a barrier to the social movement to decarbonize the energy sector in the short-term.

Quantum Politics

21st Century politics are both a particle and a wave. Individuals take actions based on their particular personal values, the abruptness of the need to take action, how immoral they view the present and recent past, and finally whether the action is needed now.  Groups take action when multiple organizations form alliances and become what the media calls a movement.  Movements are waves and individuals are particles in the quantum politics of the 21st Century.

The 192 nation-states at COP-21 in December 2015, assumed the physical boundaries between nations continue to define their rights, duties and obligations.  They postponed action hoping that when the “real” time comes to address climate change, that some innovation, a change in behavior, technological invention or some nonhuman force will appear and magically save the world.  This irresponsibility is embedded in the current international system of governance.  Thus the present system of nation-states assumes a classical political world based on the separation of space and time, and the present political borders on maps.

The climate change movement represents a quantum political world based on space-time as a continuum. When looking down from the International Space Station, there are no political boundaries to see. When considering what action to take, climate change organizations envision future generations of children living in a world that has a stable climate.  A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, of particles and waves, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

Climate change is the vehicle that will transform the world’s governance systems from nation-states global political organizations like the UN with increased rights, duties and obligations.  There are many NGOs that operate without borders dealing more and more with the consequences of climate change due to the lack of action by policy makers.  Multinational corporations are pivoting to deal with the consequences of climate change.  Individuals become refugees or migrants by crossing borders. There are over 60 million people worldwide who are refugees and the number increases daily.  This increased mass of people migrating will destabilize governments and classical politics does not understand how to respond.

The frustration of climate change activists results from the classical political paradigm that separates time and space. Time is never a constraint on policy makers and political borders restrict their laws.  In quantum politics, future generations have value in the present and causality over time must be factored into present policies.  In quantum politics, spatial boundaries do not restrict policies or laws.  Finally, quantum politics is based on space-time as a continuum, a fabric that aligns the threads of the present and future, and that aligns the threads of individuals and groups across borders.

A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, of particles and waves, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

Quantum Entanglement

There are basic mistakes that classical politics makes similar to Albert Einstein’s mistakes about quantum mechanics.  Einstein referred to this physical phenomenon, that suggests objects separated by great distances effect one another, as “spooky action at a distance.” He rejected the possibility, refusing to believe that objects could influence each other no matter how far apart they were.  Classical politics also rejects spooky action at a distance when politicians deny the possibility that CO2 from American industry could influence other countries no matter how far apart the countries are.

Over the past 40 years, the Internet has grown to allow and encourage spooky action at a distance.  Events happen simultaneously in different parts of the world that support dealing with climate change in the present moment by coordinating, collaborating and communicating using the Internet.  Billions of dollars are being spent to upgrade the speed and capacity of the Internet, and make broadband available to everyone, everywhere. Spooky actions at a distance will increase exponentially as bandwidth and speed increase.

In quantum politics, there is quantum entanglement. Air pollution that happens in China effects North America. Political irresponsibility in America effects the worldwide pollution of land, air and water when waste is shipped overseas, when global CO2 levels increase and when oceans acidify. Evidence of spooky action at a distance is documented on the Internet as images, video and audio in ways that older generations making policy decisions now have never experienced.  

A molecule of CO2 released in California changes the global temperature and contributes to drought in India, extreme heat in France and flooding in England. The mistake of present day politicians is to misunderstand the global entanglement of individuals and organizations over time and space.

As the gravity of the situation increases, individuals will feel the impact, abrupt changes will happen, immoral consequences will become visible in the present moment.  As the mass of people effected increases and the situation gets worse, politics will deviate from the present path.  Quantum politics will become more visible and acknowledged by the Millennial Generation (born 1982-2004) as they become the policy makers.

Scalable

Classical politics, without timely action and dependent on boundaries, does not scale well to deal with the global consequences of climate change.  How will we build a low-carbon economy where 9 billion people thrive?  Classical politics denies the question can even be asked.  For decades, corporations were allowed to use propaganda, based on fear, uncertainty and doubt, to persuade the public and politicians that inaction was the best option.  

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires mass re-engineering of our global infrastructure and economic systems that will cause our personal behavior to change.  The scale of the carbon revolution is difficult to imagine until we examine the past 40 years of the digital revolution. The digital revolution scaled up from two people communicating with text between two computers, to billions of people communicating, collaborating and coordinating using images, video and audio through billions of devices.  The proliferation of computers, digital cameras, cellular phones and Internet connections scaled at exponential rates.

Quantum politics scales well to deal with the fabric of space-time resulting from the digital revolution. Quantum politics encourages individuals to take timely action at many locations based on shared values without border restrictions. Quantum politics supports multiple leaders across many organizations growing a movement at an exponential rate. Classical politics will not survive the carbon revolution.

Vision and Values

How might we envision a carbon revolution using the evidence and language of the digital revolution?  First, there are people with foresight who are envisioning a low-carbon economy and acting on that idea.  Visionary leaders like Elon Musk with Solar City, Tesla and a giga factory for batteries.  These visionary leaders are not like the politicians who can not enact polices.  The carbon revolution leaders are emerging to scale up the low-carbon economy.  “Silicon Valley is a mindset, not a location,” stated Reid Hoffman, Co-founder LinkedIn

The individual exceptionalism of the digital economy also values shared learning, a sense of community and collective benefits. This combination of cooperation and competition mashed up is “coopertition.” These values align with the global economy benefiting everyone with a level playing field for competition of ideas and actions.  The carbon revolution has coopertition to deal with the consequences of climate change through adaption and mitigation strategies.  The volume of scientific and engineering research related to a low-carbon economy and dealing with the consequences of climate change is increasing exponentially.  People are actively engaged in the values of the digital revolution and ready to scale those values up in the carbon revolution.

Classical politics excludes individuals and allows corrupt national organizations to control policies.  Quantum politics includes people and organizations that benefit individuals and the global community.

Growth

Growth and capitalism are not good or bad, only people make them so. Exponential growth is found in nature when an unlimited supply of resources are available.  The structure of the 20th Century economy we inherited supports short-term profits and growth in value.  The new low-carbon economy emerging supports growth using capitalism but with vision and values described above that benefit a broader community.

‘Growth-mindset’ was coined by the Stanford University professor of psychology Carol Dweck, and she compares it to the fixed mindset that doesn’t allow for flexibility, growth or failure.

‘Fail-fast’ is another digital revolution mashup.  The growth-mindset combined with fail-fast reveal acceptance of trying, learning from mistakes and failures.  Classical politics kills ambitious plans for the low-carbon economy by fixating on maintaining the past structure supporting fossil fuels. Classical politics allows critics too much rhetoric of fear, uncertainty and doubt about failures.  We can learn from innovation and failures.

Conclusion

Classical politics excludes individuals and allows corrupt national organizations to control policies.  Quantum politics includes people and organizations that benefit individuals and the global community. Climate change is the vehicle that will transform the world’s governance systems from nation-states global political organizations like the UN with increased rights, duties and obligations.  A worldwide movement of individuals and groups, based on quantum politics has formed to confront the classical political theory of how to govern.

The Root Cause of Ecological Crisis

When the consequences of climate change accumulate enough, as we approach 2020, we will name the crisis. Public testimony since the 1980s foresaw the particular problems of environmental degradation that reduces the availability of water, food and shelter for people. Hope was that proposed government regulations and industry controls would limit the damage and control the worst consequences.

As of early 2016, what we witnessed argues that basic causes are rooted in combined actions of corporations pushing politicians toward a utopian self-regulating market system.  A free market never existed and never will because the environment and humanity would be destroyed before the fairy tale ended. Making commodities of land, labor and money in the market economy has degraded the environment, increased poverty and inequality, and supported predatory financial institutions.

We argue that by 2020 a surprise reaction to the consequences of climate change will lead to a crisis period of five to ten years unlike any in the history of America or the world.  An ecological disaster and human crisis of global proportions.  As a result, our system of democracy will improve with increased participation and we will embed the market economy within a broader economy, and embed that within the social fabric of society.

Key Measures

• Ad hoc actions leave uncorrected the root causes of the coming crisis and usually encourage the root causes to grow stronger and multiply consequences.  Relieving the symptoms and not curing the disease only happens with terminal patients or when the patient will get well on their own.
• The global community of scientists and engineers contributed to diagnosing, understanding and suggesting treatments for the root causes based on technology and innovation without considering the systemic relationship of the environment and people exploited by the market economy.
• All of the threats to humanity’s survival are traceable to one root cause: the utopian self-regulated market economy without a moral or ethical compass.  The individualism promoting a lifestyle that has no moral code.  The corporate propaganda that has no ethical compass.
• The market economy and society interact through the democratic political process.  However the check and balance system is now corrupted by the individual and corporate propaganda saying that the market economy is the only way to improve the quality of life, when in fact the dominance of the market economy is the root cause of our present impending crisis.
• The only possible entry point, to add a feedback loop to balance the system, appears to be when society embeds the market economy within an overall economy using a democracy with increased citizen participation.  This means that the wealthy and politically well connected who believe the present world order must be maintained will lose much of their individual influence and power.  Citizens will be empowered to participate in decision making.
• The dominance of the market system, over society’s needs for clean air and water, productive cropland, human rights and access to capital, is the root cause of the global crisis that will surprise everyone in the 2020s.  In the real world, beyond the myth of the market economy, the approaching crisis is witnessed by: 

• drought and floods degrading access to fresh water and food
• increasing flow of refugees away from destabilized regions
• inability of government financial institutions to properly manage capital.

• The change in our values, thinking and behavior has already begun but only by a few people relative to the impact of a global reaction to the coming ecological and human crisis.  There are a growing number of business leaders and politicians who wish they could change but feel unsafe, threatened or that it goes against tradition.

• Changes will be local, regional, national and global.  Changes impact government, education and military organizations because the assumptions used to build the myth of the self-regulating market economy are fiction.  Land, labor and money are not commodities that fit the economic theory of a market economy.

No one can predict the specific outcome, the details or results of the changes in the 2020s that will transform government, the economy and society.  We know that the present pattern of disruption, based on the alignment of generations and events, leads to a crisis climax with a successful transformation of society after about 2028.

We conclude that the next few years, until about 2020, involve futile peace negotiations like COP21 to appease the public, governments and businesses, without taking action to deal with the root cause of the crisis.  Like the beginning of WWII and Pearl Harbor 80 years earlier, the surprise catalyst will trigger a period of extreme transformation of governments, society, education and business.

Republican Market Myth

Channeling Polanyi

Aligning the Republican Party and conservative voters against socialism, communism, immigration and other prejudices resulted in their loss of Presidential elections of 2008 and 2012, and they will lose again in 2016.  The Republican agenda relies on conservative traditions from the 20th Century to support a utopian self-regulating, market driven society.  However, a growing social movement aligned with local government action in the 21st Century will shift the balance of power away from the market economy and benefiting an oligarchy, toward an improved social order benefiting the survivors.

On one side we have the movement of laissez faire — the efforts by a variety of groups to expand the scope and influence of self-regulating markets. On the other side has been the movement of protection — the initiatives, again by a wide range of social actors, to insulate the fabric of social life from the destructive impact of market pressures.

The market assumes land, labor and money are commodities with a price, with measured levels of supply and demand, in a self-regulated market.  This utopian model of an economy has never existed and never will exist.  The core contradiction of a market driven society is that a system of self-regulating markets cannot possibly be a foundation for social order. Government action is required to produce and maintain economic and social order.  The vision of a self-regulating market system is utopian — literally impossible.

Capitalism is an economic system based on private ownership of the means of production and their operation for profit. The key ingredients are private property, capital accumulation, wage labor, voluntary exchange, a price system, and competitive markets.  Left alone without government intervention, a capitalist economic system preys on land, labor and money to extract the last ounce of profit without regard to any other consequences.  Thus parasitic capitalism has no balancing feedback loop to maintain stability and will destroy the host.

In a self-regulated market, products and services fit the economic theories. The fictitious commodities of land, labor and money are the achilles heel of the market economy.  There is limited land and underground resources that can be extracted without causing environmental harm to the general population. People have other demands on their time besides working for wages and must be protected from exploitation. Money is managed by a government agency.

The self-regulated market is based on fictitious commodities of land, labor and money in a way that benefits oligarchy.  The slow, certain destruction of stable governments by the self-regulated market also destroys the natural environment.

By signing global trade agreements, like NAFTA and TPP, America has tilted policies too far in the direction favored by the movement of laissez-faire risks that both weaken the domestic economy and become too dependent on the global economy.  American land, citizens and dollars are not commodities to be bargained away by the self-regulated market.

By 350.org supporting a fossil-fuel divestment movement, they are using the business community’s own weapon against themselves.  The oligarchy will still try to use the threat to withhold investments as a weapon to get politicians to support their laissez-faire market policies. However the market for renewables, electric vehicles, energy efficiency and political support for decarbonization policies continues to grow.

As the 2008-2010 downturn in the economy continues to cause lingering stagnation for large inner cities and rural areas, the protective counter movement gains greater political leverage as more citizens demand protection from economic hardship.  Why is America choosing to put the protection of corporate rights above the protection of the health of human beings who will die an untimely death from pollution?

Economists believe that governments need to help markets work efficiently by enforcing contracts, resolving insolvencies, quickly hooking up firms to the power grid, supporting training and education of the work force, and using many other policies, laws, regulations and rules.  Changes to the way governments help markets work efficiently are known as structural reforms.

Structural reforms include reducing corruption, improving land use laws, improving labor market regulations and managing monetary and fiscal policy.  The economy and government regulation maintain a constant wrestling match trying to balance the myth of a self-regulating market for products and services, with the social stability required for land, people and money to be equitably disturbed across the whole population. Too much exploitation of land causes pollution and reduces the longevity of people.  Too much exploitation of people causes poverty and homelessness.  Too much exploitation of money causes an oligarchy.

Globalization pushes capitalism’s fictitious commodities of land, labor and money to their utopian limits.  As a result, pollution degrades nature, more working poor degrades culture and poverty degrades society.  Finally producing new forms of resistance to the market economy based on financial gain by a few - an oligarchy.

Political movements, in America and globally, struggle to reclaim privately enclosed land, subordinate deregulated labor and financial markets to popular control, and to bring an end to global inequality and underdevelopment.  Global free trade agreements like TPP work against these new movements.

Instead of state regulations challenging the central role of the market in society, they have been used to reinforce the strength of the self-regulated market at the expense of land, people and money.  Exemptions to regulations are granted without public comment, increasing harmful pollution that shorten people’s lives. Only a fully functioning democracy has the power to embed the market into an overall economy embedded within society.

How do we balance the market with the overall needs of society? We must embed the market system into an overall economy that is managed and governed by a democracy with the maximum number of citizens participating in decisions.  This means capitalism must be subordinate to the will of the people.

Sources:
1.  "The Great Transformation" by Karl Polanyi
2.   Article by Margaret Somers and Fred Block
3.   Article about Polanyi's book
4.   Article about Polanyi and summary of ideas
5.   Article by Fred Block about Polanyi 
6.   Interview with Fred Block on Polanyi

More reading that I need to do:
Fred Block and Margaret Somers book about Polanyi

Security and the Second Amendment

Question by President Obama

State of the Union 2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_State_of_the_Union_Address

“So let's talk about the future, and four big questions that we as a country have to answer — regardless of who the next President is, or who controls the next Congress.

First, how do we give everyone a fair shot at opportunity and security in this new economy?”

My Opinion

What kind of life is proper for a person living among other people? The question becomes a debate about whether the individual or the group has rights that dominate.  Also, the debate extends to duties and obligations owed to the group or owed to individuals.

One example of an individual right in conflict with group rights is Amendment II:  “A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.”  In 2008, the Supreme Court (DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA v. HELLER (No. 07-290) 478 F. 3d 370) decided 5-4 to not allow the District of Columbia to have a law restricting firearms.

US citizens in the 21st Century do not “give everyone a fair shot at opportunity and security” when the individual right to firearms dominates the group right to security.

Federal and State governments in the 21st Century do not have, nor need a militia of armed citizens.  Governments created each state national guard. The right of individuals to possess and bear arms must be subordinate to the laws permitting the state national guard to possess firearms.  The Second Amendment is not about individual rights.  The primary subject is a “well regulated militia” for the “security of a free state.”  The group right to security dominates the individual right to firearms.

Gun laws are found in many federal statutes. These laws regulate the manufacture, trade, possession, transfer, record keeping, transport, and destruction of firearms, ammunition, and firearms accessories. They are enforced by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

In the McDonald v. City of Chicago decision in 2010, the Supreme Court ruled that, because of the incorporation of the Bill of Rights, the guarantee of an individual right to bear arms applies to state and local gun control laws and not just federal laws.

The Supreme Court has not ruled on whether or not the Second Amendment protects the right to carry guns in public for self defense.  There are federal and state laws that restrict a citizen’s right to carry concealed firearms.

The clear purpose and historical context of the Second Amendment was militia service. The amendment does not create a legal rule that protects the individual right to possess and carry fire arms outside the context of service in a state militia. In the 21st Century, an individual, that is a member of the state national guard, has the right and duty to possess and carry firearms as part of their service as limited by the rules, regulations and laws that control that right.

The original source of the right to bear arms was the English Bill of Rights from 1689: subjects who are Protestants may bear arms for their defense as permitted by law.  There were two restrictions then, you had to be a member of a group called Protestants and you could only possess firearms “as permitted by law.”  The origin of the right to bear arms does not promote individual rights over the group right to use the law to regulate firearms.

The Second Amendment does not give an individual the right to possess and carry firearms without being a member of a group that is designated by state law in service of the government.  As a result, the traditional interpretation of the right to bear arms shall not dominate the federal and state government’s exclusive right to control access to firearms.  Therefore the federal and state governments have the right to restrict and control firearms so that only members of designated federal and state government organizations possess and carry firearms.

2020 Vision

Generations align every 80 years to form a trinity of elders, middle-aged and young adults prepared to fulfill their roles in an epic fight for survival.  The American Revolution, Civil War and WWII were examples of this alignment.  Envision 2020, when Baby Boomers will all be over 60, GenX will be in middle age and Millennials will all be young adults.

Boomers will hold the moral high ground.  GenXers will manage and supervise, when and where action is needed.  Millennials will have the youthful energy and teamwork to be the foot soldiers in an epic battle to save civilization.  But from what?

Pope Francis detailed in his Encyclical on Climate Change (LAUDATO SI’) the moral principles for Boomers to follow that justify global mobilization of money, production and people.  GenXers in business and government are mobilizing resources by leading organizations to align themselves with the new reality based on the consequences of climate change.  Also, GenXers will lead Millennials when the time comes to implement drastic actions needed to save civilization from the global consequences of climate change.

Like 1935 prior to WWII, the world will navigate a path from 2020-2028, the very existence of which everyone in 2015 denies.  As late as 1943, American politicians were not denying the truth of the concentration camps but were so shocked by the reports that they were unbelievable.  In the same way, the truth of the consequences of climate change are now undeniable however that does not make them any more believable.

The fairy tale ending comes after 2028 when a new golden era emerges.  But until then, what do we do?  Reduce CO2 emissions by converting to renewable energy, driving electric cars and using public transportation.  We need to change our lifestyles by not being as concerned with fashion and material things. We need to change our eating habits by eating less beef.  We need to find as many ways as possible to reduce green house gas emissions.

We will need to find ways to feed millions of refugees and migrants.  Agriculture will change dramatically due to droughts, food insecurity and reducing emissions.  We will also need to find ways to sequester carbon to reduce the CO2 already in the atmosphere.  All of these things mean that how we plant, maintain and harvest using large or small land holdings will change.

Extremism

Extremism is not just a vice someone picks up on a Dark Web Internet forum. The fight or flight response triggers Extremism as a reaction to an existential crisis. Vulnerable people take the tiny seed of instinct about mortality, grow their Extremist view into a giant species-wide folly and then go too far. (edited by me)

"So why can’t we wage a war on extremists? Why can’t we just embrace the moderates to counter extremists?  Because extremists aren’t born, they’re forged in failed states, failed prophesy and, yes, failed ideas. Social upheaval, isolation, perceived humiliation or moral outrage, powerlessness and/or scarcity are what make extremists, not some innate evil."

"...not that extremists are losers; according to social scientists, failure makes people more extreme." 

As chaos increases across the Middle East, Africa, India and China, due to drought and food insecurity contributing to destabilized local and national governance, the failures will breed more extremists with more extreme goals.

How will America respond?

Source:

 http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/rethinking-the-fight-against-extremists/