Open Letter to Politicians

September 14, 2015

Governor Kate Brown

Mayor Denny Doyle

Senator Ron Wyden

Senator Jeffrey A. Merkley

Representative Suzanne Bonamici

The consequences of decades of CO2 emissions are already baked into the Earth System.  However, as a consequence of climate change, the human suffering is just beginning. 

The CO2 emissions now in the atmosphere and the oceans have enough momentum to shift the heat energy and chemistry of the Earth System so that many millions of humans are going to suffer.

So what?  Why am I writing this letter?

In western Oregon, especially the Willamette Valley, we are uniquely positioned to have a mild marine climate, plentiful rainfall, a few more hot dry days in the summer, and plentiful farmland for crops and grazing. While the rest of Oregon is under drought declarations, NW Oregon has so far been spared from the extreme consequences.  However that leads us to a future problem, everyone is going to want to move to western Oregon when they run out of water and experience food insecurity.

16.1 percent of people in Oregon experienced food insecurity in 2012-2014 period (per FDA). That means over 630,000 real people did not have enough food at least one day of the year.  But there was growth in that number over time.  Why?

The ones who suffer from the consequences of climate change are those vulnerable to food insecurity.  Pope Frances’ Encyclical makes clear that the world’s poor are going to suffer the worst consequences.

One possible impact of climate change is that migration could shift away from California and up into Oregon, where resources, especially water, are more plentiful (See Reference below).  Climate change refugees will come to Oregon, not just from other countries, but by the thousands from California and Texas, and any other state that suffers from extreme weather, loss of jobs and food insecurity.  There won’t be enough jobs here for them.  We will need to figure out how to feed and provide shelter to what will feel like an invasion.

Unlike the exodus from New Orleans in 2005, where the people with the resources were able to avoid the life threatening disaster.  The exodus from drought areas in California, Arizona and Texas, coming to Oregon will not have jobs here, will not have resources to find shelter and will experience food insecurity.  

There are many unanswered questions:

• Is Oregon going to be organized, efficient and welcoming like Germany?  Or are we going to be like Hungary and keep them moving into Washington?
• What principles, values and beliefs are going to be used to justify Oregon’s official actions?
• Does Oregon have the connections to the Federal resources to be able to get help quickly enough to respond?
• Where are all these people going to find shelter? Or are we going to concentrate them in migrant camps like we did the Japanese during WWII?
• Are the climate migrants going to be primarily Hispanic from Mexico, and Central and South America? 
• Are we going to deport people? There are still at least 10 million undocumented people living in America.  They are the poorest and least able to adapt where they live.

Climate Change Puzzle Pieces (See Reference below)

Carbon Management

• Energy production transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
• Transportation transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (cars, trucks, buses, light rail trains, mass transit) to electric vehicles.
• Energy use transition to upgrade built environment energy efficiency.
• Agriculture and grazing land management practices to reclaim land from desertification and maintain existing productive land.
• Forest land management practices.
• Removing CO2 from the atmosphere and Sequestering carbon.

Consequences of Climate Change require people to adapt, mitigate risks and communicate.

• Water sources, use and storage.
• Food security.
• Refugees migrating across America.
• Refugees from Mexico, Central and South America.
• Refugees from other countries.

Click Link to
draft Climate Strategy Framework 

Reference:

ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRANTS AND THE FUTURE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY

A Preliminary Exploration, USP 594: Planning in the Pacific Northwest Fall 2011

(https://www.pdx.edu/usp/sites/www.pdx.edu.usp/files/Environmental_Migrants.pdf)

SOLVING THE PUZZLE:  Researching the Impacts of Climate Change Around the World  http://www.nsf.gov/news/nsf09202/nsf09202.pdf

Dr. Katharine Hayhoe

Dr. Katharine Hayhoe is an Atmospheric Scientist originally from Canada, now a Professor in Texas. She consults with cities and municipal governments about climate change actions as well as giving public talks. She was in Portland this summer speaking at the World Affairs Council International Speakers Series.

"When Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor in the political science department at Texas Tech University in Lubbock and director of the school’s Climate Science Center, speaks to community groups, she often opens with a statement of faith. This 42-year-old atmospheric scientist is deeply religious and married to an evangelical Christian pastor. But she also begins that way because she finds it helps her connect to her audiences. “People will listen to you if they see you as someone who shares their values,” she notes. “I try to illustrate how if you are a person of faith, you should also care about climate change. It’s not always an easy argument to make. People think you’re asking them to join the Church of Al Gore. I try to show how this is about caring for others and protecting our families, communities—our way of life.” Hayhoe’s consulting work involves helping municipalities plan for climate change. After record heat waves in Chicago, for instance, her report to city officials prompted them to initiate a green-roof program, which saves money and alleviates the urban heat-island effect."

“I feel climate scientists are similar to physicians. We’ve determined the climate is running a fever. We know if nothing is done, there will be serious consequences. For me, my faith takes me further. This affects God’s creation, which is people and the earth, which we are commanded to love.”

Source: http://www.more.com/news/politics-opinion/climate-avenger-katharine-hayhoe-climate-evangelist

Leverage Points in the System

From a Systems Thinking and System Dynamics perspective, The 4th Turning crisis era escalates from using low leverage changes to high leverage. Two high leverage points include changing the goals of the system, and then changing the mindset or paradigm from where the system arises.

Millennials bring a new set of goals and mindset to the current system creating a gap or difference between the past and the future expectations.  Any difference becomes information included in narratives/stories.  The narratives/stories told by Millennials will change from low leverage changes to the system (like who they vote for) to high leverage changes.

http://www.donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

The Pope’s Encyclical marked a pivot toward a high leverage action. Intervening in the current system to change the goals and change the present mindset or paradigm of why the present system exists.  POTUS Clean Energy Plan and COP21 are weak leverage points in the system.  They deal with constants, parameters and numbers.

Here is an example of a systems perspective:

http://socap15.socialcapitalmarkets.net/2015/08/06/socap-conversations-transforming-the-system/

Step Up

When we need to step up and be an advocate for a loved one with medical issues, we do whatever is required. My brother could not drive after having a brain operation to remove a tumor and then another to remove scare tissue from the first operation.  My sister stepped up and was his advocate with the medical professionals. I volunteered to drive him to appointments, the grocery store and other errands. After I retired, and my brother developed leukemia, I drove him to regular blood treatments.  We stepped up when we were needed. Sadly, my brother died from complications due to the leukemia.

There are many stories of people stepping up to advocate for a loved one. A child needs an advocate with teachers and administrators at school. An elderly parent needs an advocate with medical professionals. Volunteer advocates help children in Family Court cases. Children left with their grandmother need an advocate everyday for everything. Non-profit organizations advocate for special constituents that might otherwise not get their basic needs met so that they have access to clean drinking water, food safe to eat, shelter and security.

On a global scale, there are many non-profit organizations advocating for the poor, low-income, refugees and disaster victims. The Catholic Church is an advocate for the poor.  Pope Francis was born in Argentina and witnessed first hand the suffering of the poor.  On June 18, 2015, the first ecological encyclical “LAUDATO SI’ “ was published to advocate for the poor who now and will continue to suffer the worst consequences of climate change.  In paragraph 105, Pope Francis wrote, “Our immense technological development has not been accompanied by a development in human responsibility, values and conscience.”

Living in America, how can I be responsible for the poor in Pakistan or France? The poor who die from complications caused by high summer temperatures. The poor in Asia who die from flooding caused by typhoons with higher than average rainfall.  The refugees from Syria driven from their homes by civil war that started after farmers had moved to cities because of drought.  The refugees dying while attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Greece or Italy. How can I be responsible for the deaths of poor people worldwide that are a consequence of climate change?

Extreme weather events have driven food prices to record highs.  For example, on August 6,  2010 Russia banned the export of wheat after drought reduced the harvest and wildfires burned many acres. The price of food in Tunisia and Egypt increased dramatically in a short time, and that led to food riots. Rising food prices destabilized governments in the Middle East and resulted in the Arab Spring.

What happens in China affects the air pollution in America.  Pollutants travel in the wind over the Pacific Ocean and are detected on the west coast of America.  Pollution from coal plants in China can be measured in America.  CO2 emissions from America can be measured in the worldwide increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  The heat absorbed by the atmosphere increases when there is more CO2 and the poor worldwide suffer the consequences.

Therefore causality, a long chain of cause and effect, links my CO2 emissions with the death of poor people worldwide. What can I do? As an individual, I can not shutdown the coal plants in America nor convert the transportation industry to zero emission buses, trucks and cars.  I can join with others to advocate for the reduction of CO2 emissions and support the new EPA Clean Energy Plan of 2015. 

First, for many years we have paid extra on our electric bill to purchase 100% renewable energy and we use a high efficiency heat pump for heating and air conditioning. Second, we replaced a car with a Prius to use less gasoline and we are planning on buying an electric car in the near future.

We reduced our purchases of consumer goods and other polluting activities.  We have reduced our waste at home.  We reuse items, donate items for reuse, and give away items to family, friends and neighbors.  We recycle everything possible every week.

Oregon was the first to announce the shutdown by 2020 of a coal plant.  In December 2010, the state's environmental protection agency approved the plans for the 2020 closing of the 550MW Boardman Coal Plant. The summer of 2015 saw the announcement of the 200th coal plant planned for shutdown.  

Also, President Obama and the EPA announced on August 3, 2015 the Clean Power Plan that will increase the number of coal plants that shutdown.  Total CO2 emissions need to be reduced in the present and then faster over time so that eventually, we have zero CO2 emissions.  The Clean Power Plan is only catching up to what the States have already done and will not get us to zero CO2 emissions.  We need to do more faster.

As an advocate for the poor, Pope Francis implied we ought to ask ourselves: 

• How might I support development in human responsibility, values and conscience to change the structure of the system we have in America? 
• How might I accept responsibility, advocate values and express a conscience that supports America developing human responsibility, values and conscience to deal with climate change?

It Can't Be Done

It Can’t Be Done

Easter, Fifth Avenue, 1900.One car visible, coming towards foreground.

1899

Oakman (1899–1900)

Packard Model A (1899–1900)

1900

Lozier (1900–1915)

Packard Model B (1900–190)

Skene (1900–1901)

The Belmont Coach, 1905, four horses pulling coach. Dogs run free.

1902 - First Cadillac

1903 - Ford Model A

Eight new models introduced in 1904 and eight more in 1905.

Herald Square, 1909. Skyscraper beyond is NY Times Building in Times Sq. Cars have replaced horses.

Fifteen new models introduced 1906 to 1909.

Images Source: http://www.nyc-architecture.com/SPEC/GAL-BW.htm

Climate Strategy Framework

DRAFT September 2015

By Richard Turnock

The Climate Strategy Framework emerges from a three dimensional framework of Core Ideas, Practices and System Concepts as defined in the Next Generation Science Standards.  Climate Practices guide investigations and the design thinking for problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Climate Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.  The System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Climate Practices.

Core Ideas

The Core Ideas are the first dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework.  They are meant to be applied by individuals, neighbors, groups, cities, counties, states and at the federal level. Anyone, anywhere, at any time can implement these ideas.  These are actionable ideas.

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate.  We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.  We must then work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens. We must deal with insecure sources of water, food and shelter, the migration of refugees and the violence of collapsing governments.   

In America, refugees will migrate to avoid the lack of drinking water, high food prices and inadequate protection from high temperatures.  Refugees will migrate north and west. Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska plus southern Canada will experience an influx of migrants.  Those with vehicles, money and privilege will be invisible.  The visible refugees will be low income and poor, without private transportation and lacking jobs when they arrive.

Second, we must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels.  Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement. 

Third, we must learn to adapt faster, mitigate risks faster, communicate faster and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale.  The target needs to start with reduced CO2 emissions, then jump to net zero emissions and finally sequestering CO2 to reduce the concentration in the atmosphere.

The feedback loops in the atmosphere have a time period of decades.  Any decrease in CO2 emissions will not slow down the rising average temperature until at least ten years after they happen. Quarterly income statements are not going to tell the story of climate change. 

From 2015-2025, a critical capability is that we must improve the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above. We will not survive just by stopping CO2 emissions and investing in renewables.  We must also invest in carbon sinks to take CO2 out of the atmosphere.

List of Core Ideas

1. Adapt
2. Mitigate Risks
3. Communicate
4. Invest in Renewable Energy
5. Stop CO2 emissions
6. Remove CO2 from the atmosphere

Climate Practices

These Climate Practices are a second dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework. The Practices guide investigations and design of problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.

The difference between success and failure is asking questions to support specifying criteria and constraints for acceptable solutions; generating and evaluating multiple solutions; building and testing prototypes; and optimizing a solution.  The Design Thinking Process used by Stanford dSchool is an example.  Also, here is an example of science and engineering practices paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Ask questions and define problems

2. Develop and use models

3. Plan and carry out investigations

4. Analyze and interpret data

5. Use mathematics and computational thinking

6. Construct explanations and designing solutions

7. Engage in argument from evidence

8. Obtain, evaluate, and communicate information

System Concepts

These System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Practices. System Concepts reveal the consequences of whole systems, while each of the Core Ideas are a way to divide a large issue like Climate Change into smaller problems. These concepts apply to all the Core Ideas and Practices. 

Systems Thinking is a way of describing the qualitative process of applying System Concepts to Climate Change.  System Dynamics implements a quantitative process.

Systems Thinkers see problems entirely differently. They see immense reinforcing feedback loops causing swarms of agents to exploit the Earth for their own benefit and population growth. This mode becomes unsustainable when balancing feedback loops finally start to push back as we approach environmental limits. 

Systems Thinkers do not see people’s misbehavior as the core problem. Instead, they see the structure of the system causing that misbehavior. To solve the problem, the system structure has to be understood and changed, so that feedback loops can be redesigned to cause people to behave more sustainably as a natural part of their everyday existence. (Dr. Michael von Kutzschenbach, http://www.bta-online.com/blog/2014/a-new-wave-to-management-thinking/)

These System Concepts were paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Patterns
2. Cause and Effect
3. Systems and System Models
4. Function and Structure of Systems
5. Stability and Dynamics of Systems

Reference:

Next Generation Science Standards

http://www.nextgenscience.org/next-generation-science-standards

How to Save the Planet

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate. We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.

Second, adapting and mitigating risks is not enough.  To survive, we must work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens.

Third, adapting and mitigating risks faster is not enough.  We must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels. Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement on a global scale.

Fourth, we must learn to adapt, mitigate risks, communicate and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale. Improving the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above is a critical capability.

Fifth, as the need to adapt and mitigate risks eases, we need to continue to communicate and enhance our capabilities to govern the commons on a global scale.

Endnote

A lack of attention to a capability gap while focusing on 'working harder' in the short term fails.