It Can't Be Done

It Can’t Be Done

Easter, Fifth Avenue, 1900.One car visible, coming towards foreground.

1899

Oakman (1899–1900)

Packard Model A (1899–1900)

1900

Lozier (1900–1915)

Packard Model B (1900–190)

Skene (1900–1901)

The Belmont Coach, 1905, four horses pulling coach. Dogs run free.

1902 - First Cadillac

1903 - Ford Model A

Eight new models introduced in 1904 and eight more in 1905.

Herald Square, 1909. Skyscraper beyond is NY Times Building in Times Sq. Cars have replaced horses.

Fifteen new models introduced 1906 to 1909.

Images Source: http://www.nyc-architecture.com/SPEC/GAL-BW.htm

Climate Strategy Framework

DRAFT September 2015

By Richard Turnock

The Climate Strategy Framework emerges from a three dimensional framework of Core Ideas, Practices and System Concepts as defined in the Next Generation Science Standards.  Climate Practices guide investigations and the design thinking for problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Climate Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.  The System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Climate Practices.

Core Ideas

The Core Ideas are the first dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework.  They are meant to be applied by individuals, neighbors, groups, cities, counties, states and at the federal level. Anyone, anywhere, at any time can implement these ideas.  These are actionable ideas.

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate.  We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.  We must then work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens. We must deal with insecure sources of water, food and shelter, the migration of refugees and the violence of collapsing governments.   

In America, refugees will migrate to avoid the lack of drinking water, high food prices and inadequate protection from high temperatures.  Refugees will migrate north and west. Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska plus southern Canada will experience an influx of migrants.  Those with vehicles, money and privilege will be invisible.  The visible refugees will be low income and poor, without private transportation and lacking jobs when they arrive.

Second, we must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels.  Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement. 

Third, we must learn to adapt faster, mitigate risks faster, communicate faster and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale.  The target needs to start with reduced CO2 emissions, then jump to net zero emissions and finally sequestering CO2 to reduce the concentration in the atmosphere.

The feedback loops in the atmosphere have a time period of decades.  Any decrease in CO2 emissions will not slow down the rising average temperature until at least ten years after they happen. Quarterly income statements are not going to tell the story of climate change. 

From 2015-2025, a critical capability is that we must improve the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above. We will not survive just by stopping CO2 emissions and investing in renewables.  We must also invest in carbon sinks to take CO2 out of the atmosphere.

List of Core Ideas

1. Adapt
2. Mitigate Risks
3. Communicate
4. Invest in Renewable Energy
5. Stop CO2 emissions
6. Remove CO2 from the atmosphere

Climate Practices

These Climate Practices are a second dimension to the Climate Strategy Framework. The Practices guide investigations and design of problems and solutions to support implementation over time of the Core Ideas.  The Practices depend on science and engineering skills, capabilities and experience.

The difference between success and failure is asking questions to support specifying criteria and constraints for acceptable solutions; generating and evaluating multiple solutions; building and testing prototypes; and optimizing a solution.  The Design Thinking Process used by Stanford dSchool is an example.  Also, here is an example of science and engineering practices paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Ask questions and define problems

2. Develop and use models

3. Plan and carry out investigations

4. Analyze and interpret data

5. Use mathematics and computational thinking

6. Construct explanations and designing solutions

7. Engage in argument from evidence

8. Obtain, evaluate, and communicate information

System Concepts

These System Concepts bridge the gaps between the Core Ideas and inform the Practices. System Concepts reveal the consequences of whole systems, while each of the Core Ideas are a way to divide a large issue like Climate Change into smaller problems. These concepts apply to all the Core Ideas and Practices. 

Systems Thinking is a way of describing the qualitative process of applying System Concepts to Climate Change.  System Dynamics implements a quantitative process.

Systems Thinkers see problems entirely differently. They see immense reinforcing feedback loops causing swarms of agents to exploit the Earth for their own benefit and population growth. This mode becomes unsustainable when balancing feedback loops finally start to push back as we approach environmental limits. 

Systems Thinkers do not see people’s misbehavior as the core problem. Instead, they see the structure of the system causing that misbehavior. To solve the problem, the system structure has to be understood and changed, so that feedback loops can be redesigned to cause people to behave more sustainably as a natural part of their everyday existence. (Dr. Michael von Kutzschenbach, http://www.bta-online.com/blog/2014/a-new-wave-to-management-thinking/)

These System Concepts were paraphrased from the Next Generation Science Standards:

1. Patterns
2. Cause and Effect
3. Systems and System Models
4. Function and Structure of Systems
5. Stability and Dynamics of Systems

Reference:

Next Generation Science Standards

http://www.nextgenscience.org/next-generation-science-standards

How to Save the Planet

First, to survive, we must adapt, mitigate risks and communicate. We must recognize and prepare for Worse-Before-Better.

Second, adapting and mitigating risks is not enough.  To survive, we must work to adapt and mitigate risks faster than the crisis happens.

Third, adapting and mitigating risks faster is not enough.  We must work to stop CO2 emissions and rebuild our energy and transportation infrastructure to replace the use of fossil fuels. Performance depends on multiple capabilities.  To survive, investments in renewable energy must rise above basic replacement on a global scale.

Fourth, we must learn to adapt, mitigate risks, communicate and invest in renewable energy faster than the consequences of climate change erode our capabilities and sap morale. Improving the diversity of capabilities to do all of the above is a critical capability.

Fifth, as the need to adapt and mitigate risks eases, we need to continue to communicate and enhance our capabilities to govern the commons on a global scale.

Endnote

A lack of attention to a capability gap while focusing on 'working harder' in the short term fails.

The Fourth Turning

“During Crises, great peril provokes a societal consensus, an ethic of personal sacrifice, and strong institutional order.”  (Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: Morrow, 1991.)

Introduction

The 4th Turning began at the beginning of the Great Recession. According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and thus extended over 19 months. As a general statement, the current 4th Turning began in 2008.

According to Strauss and Howe’s book “The Fourth Turning” this would align with the prior 4th Turning that started with the Great Depression in 1929 and lasted until the end of WWII, about 17 years. A Turning might last more or less than 20 years, with the overall cycle averaging out over time to four turnings with a total of 80 years.

The current Fourth Turning, if 20 years long, would extend to 2028.  The rhythm of the Fourth Turning begins with a major crisis like the Great Recession and ends with an all out fight to the death at the climax. Between those bookends in time, a crisis begins to spread from one area of the world to others. In our case, the consequences of  climate change are going to cause people worldwide to adapt, mitigate and demand leadership.

Societal Consensus

In 2015, we arrived at a societal consensus on the main topics of the culture wars from the past to close the final chapter on the prior Unraveling, the 3rd Turning.  Gay marriage is legal, there is health care for everyone through the ACA (Obamacare), and abortion, contraception and women’s health care are available.  There are still a few locations where these issues might not be completely settled.  Even though our politicians are still attempting to divide people into red and blue voters, society has moved beyond the old culture wars and is beginning to build momentum toward the climax of the crisis era.

During this 4th Turning, we are experiencing a growing societal consensus about adapting, mitigating and responding to Climate Change. In 2015, the increasing support for climate action means the annual meeting schedule for December in Paris has everyone’s attention. A global coordinated response to climate change means helping those most effected by the consequences.  The Pope stated on June 18 in his Encyclical that the poor are going to experience the consequences of climate change while those who can adapt and mitigate the consequences will not suffer or sacrifice.

Sacrifice

The second element is an ethic of personal sacrifice. Here are four quotes (bold is my emphasis) from the Pope’s Encyclical (On Care For Our Common Home, June 18, 2015):

“…Bartholomew has drawn attention to the ethical and spiritual roots of environmental problems, which require that we look for solutions not only in technology but in a change of humanity; otherwise we would be dealing merely with symptoms. He asks us to replace consumption with sacrifice, greed with generosity, wastefulness with a spirit of sharing, an asceticism which “entails learning to give, and not simply to give up…”

“Any technical solution which science claims to offer will be powerless to solve the serious problems of our world if humanity loses its compass, if we lose sight of the great motivations which make it possible for us to live in harmony, to make sacrifices and to treat others well.”

“…we are called quietly to imitate his generosity in self-sacrifice and good works…”

“By developing our individual, God-given capacities, an ecological conversion can inspire us to greater creativity and enthusiasm in resolving the world’s problems and in offering ourselves to God “as a living sacrifice, holy and acceptable” (Rom 12:1).”

President Obama has called for shared sacrifice more than once.

“America can do whatever we set our mind to. That is the story of our history, whether it's the pursuit of prosperity for our people, or the struggle for equality for all our citizens; our commitment to stand up for our values abroad, and our sacrifices to make the world a safer place. Let us remember that we can do these things not just because of wealth or power, but because of who we are: one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”  May 2, 2011, President Obama’s Statement on the Death of Osama bin Laden.

“If everybody took an attitude of shared sacrifice ... we can solve our deficit and debt problem next week, and it wouldn't require radical changes.” August 17, 2011 as reported by CNN.

“Acts of sacrifice and decency without regard to what's in it for you create a ripple effect. Ones that lift up families and communities, that spread opportunity.” May 13, 2009, President Obama Gives Commencement Address at Arizona State University.

As we continue to move deeper into the 4th Turning, the demand for shared sacrifice will increase. During a 4th Turning the demand for leadership increases but the supply is low in the beginning.  Aligned with this, the supply of sacrifices offered by people has been limited however the demand for shared sacrifice will increase.  During the climax of the 4th Turning, the Pope and the US President are just two leaders who will emphasize shared sacrifice.

Strong Institutional Order

To deal with a global threat like the consequences of climate change, strong multinational institutions are going to need to be created and old ones reorganized.  For example, a new organization is Plan B (http://bteam.org/planb/) includes a multinational team of business executives investing in climate actions. An existing organization, the Catholic Church, is pivoting toward being a leader in advocating for the poor in the fight against the consequences of climate change that are going to fall disproportionately on the poor.

The 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21/CMP11), otherwise known as “Paris 2015” will be from November 30 to December 11, 2015. COP21 will be a crucial conference, as it needs to achieve a new international agreement on the climate, applicable to all countries, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C.  The Pope’s Encyclical, President Obama’s agreement with China on reducing GHG emissions and many meetings leading up to the COP21 event have all contributed to strengthening the UN as a leading institution.

As we move forward from 2015, we will experience increasing alignment of institutional goals and objectives with those of consumers, voters, businesses, governments, non-profits, religious organizations, and many NGOs that support the poor and refugees.

Conclusion

The 4th Turning climax crisis will play out across the whole planet. Decreasing food from the oceans and land, increasing heat waves and floods, violent gangs rampaging within unstable countries, will all contribute to tens of millions of people migrating across borders.  We are about five years away from a catalyst that will mark the beginning of the climax to the crisis.  Just like WWII had a beginning, this crisis climax will have a beginning and an end. Somewhere in the 2020 to 2028 time frame the crisis era climax will intensify across the whole earth.  We will be navigating a strait, the very existence of which is denied.

On Care For Our Common Home

On Care For Our Common Home
Pope Francis
June 18, 2015

A negative double bind is a situation in which a person is confronted with two irreconcilable demands or a choice between two undesirable courses of action. The Pope’s Encyclical of June 18 describes the present double bind for humanity and a way out of the dilemma.

Economic, environmental or energy policies related to climate change are criticized as having disastrous impacts on America’s economic competitiveness. If we believe government can not impact climate change, and that China and India will not harm their economies, then the consequences of climate change will have a disastrous impact on our economy.

First, we are wrong no matter what we propose to do about climate change and the very existence of climate change is denied. Second, something or someone else is to blame for climate change. The complexity of the system of control over maintaining the status quo freezes individuals into inaction.  The negative double bind has worked for decades to delay action on climate change.

Pope Francis has taken the first step out of this dilemma.  First, the Encyclical describes in detail the dilemma and makes the negative double bind construct visible to everyone. This first step builds awareness, transparency and a common understanding of the problem.

Second, the Pope promotes transformation of the dilemma and reframing our perception of the problem by making positive statements about our common humanity. The Encyclical describes how interconnected human beings are with nature.  In the Encyclical, the words “Integral Ecology” encapsulate the inter-related system of humanity and nature described in more detail throughout.

The Pope has taken the verbal stick away from the bullies who believe they have the authority to decide what is right and wrong for everyone else. His Holiness has told the public honestly about the dilemma, made positive statements and transformed the dilemma into actions with options, possibilities and opportunities.

Double-loop learning is the modification or rejection of a goal in the light of experience.  Single-loop learning is the most common learning style and involves problem solving based on assumptions. The Encyclical encourages everyone to question our values and goals: double-loop learning.  The learning style suggested by the Pope re-evaluates and reframes our values and goals.

Criticism of the Encyclical reinforces the negative double bind dilemma to maintain the status quo. The bullies will want to engage in verbal abuse and use every wicked way possible to attack the progressive agenda proposed by the Encyclical. The Pope suggests non-violent methods to develop a global double-loop learning style to work our way out of this dilemma.

Here is where individuals have the advantage.  We can choose to use all of the non-violent strategies proposed by Gene Sharp in his book “From Dictatorship to Democracy.” We can go to public meetings and give testimony to object to fossil fuel facilities exporting products. We can buy an electric car. We can move our money to credit unions.  We can buy local goods and services. We can volunteer at a nonprofit or school. We can stand in silent protest at a strategic public location.  There over 100 different non-violent actions for individuals and groups to take in protest that support the Pope’s Encyclical. One of the most fundamental and powerful is to not obey the rules of the consumer economy dependent on fossil fuels. 

My Opinion about Fact and Opinion

First, begin with how a teacher instructs their students so they can take a standardized test.

“When students define a fact as any statement that can be proven to be true or false, they will concern themselves less with whether the statement is accurate and focus more on whether each statement can be proven.  Hence, they will better be able to identify facts and opinions.”

Let’s try one:  “French fries taste better with ketchup.”
Teachers and standardized tests grade this statement as an opinion.  However, using taste tests, I can prove, assuming a pre-defined level of statistical significance, that this statement is either true or false. Using science, I can prove that ketchup has enough sugar to stimulate the brain's neurotransmitters so that the french fries will taste better.

The Common Core Standards require elementary school teachers to instruct students to write an opinion piece and support their writing with more information.  As students get older, the focus shifts to requiring students to avoid opinion statements and use facts to support their writing.  However, this is very confusing to students as to what is fact and what is opinion.  These can change depending on the context and how the words “fact” and “opinion” are defined. 
 These words have a unique meaning in the context of standardized tests that is a different meaning than used in everyday conversation.  Also, scientists, engineers and business professionals have different assumptions, values and beliefs such that opinion is shunned, and the focus is to rely solely on facts.

Well, that's my opinion about facts and opinion.

Climate Change Denial

There remain conservatives who persist “…in denying that human carrying capacity (Earth's maximum sustainable human load) has now been or ever will be exceeded. Denials of ecological limits resemble anosognosia (inability of stroke patients to recognize their paralysis). Some denial literature resembles their confabulations (elaborately unreal stories concocted as rationalizations). Denial by opponents of human ecology seems to be a way of coping with an insufferable contradiction between past convictions and present circumstances, a defense against intolerable anomalous information.”

Source: The Problem of Denial by William R. Catton, Jr. 

Professor Emeritus - Sociology Washington State University