Policy and System Dynamics

Policy(1) is neither a stock nor a flow.  Accumulations and flows of physical or abstract things, through operational thinking, are connected and modeled as stocks and flows in computer software. In addition, they are connected using information arrows indicating the direction of information.  When policies are operationalized in a model they are elements (variables) placed between the information arrows connecting the stocks and flows creating a feedback loop. So there are two types of connections, one is the physical or abstract flow of things and the other is the information arrow creating feedback loops.

Policies in the real world are operationalized using laws, regulations, rules and other procedures.  In an SD model, policies are operationalized using constants and variables input as elements between the arrows connecting the stocks and flows creating feedback loops.

Similar to human policies, the laws of physics are operationalized as equations in SD models to create feedback loops.  The sciences have laws or rules that can be operationalized in an SD model using feedback loops.

For example, a stock with an outflow has a material flow.  However if the level of the stock needs to regulate the rate of outflow then an information arrow connects the stock to the outflow so that level information is provided to the the outflow equation.  This is a feedback loop.  As the level of the stock changes the rate of the outflow changes causing the level of the stock to change, and the arrows make this connection continuous. In the real world this is called a bathtub with an open drain.

(1) Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy)

Stress Makes People Sick

Stress reduces serotonin in the brain and causes the mind-body system to not communicate well. Another way to say this is that over time, as we experience major and minor stressful events in our life, our serotonin level is reduced each time.  When the level goes below a threshold, our brain starts to imagine things that are not really happening. This triggers the fight or flight syndrome that causes our body to use a lot of adrenaline, suppress our immune system, move cortisol (a steroid) into the digestive system and prepare our muscles for action. When in fact in our modern society we can neither fight nor run from our work or home situations.  As a result, we experience symptoms as if we were sick due to some unknown illness or disease that our mind imagines we have.

Low serotonin is a medical condition that is only diagnosed when there is no other explanation for the symptoms a patient is experiencing.  Serotonin in the brain can not be measured directly and the indirect testing is expensive.  A typical patient will tell the doctor they feel like they are having a heart attack when tests show the person is in perfect condition. From experience, the doctor knows this means the person is having an anxiety attack.

The quickest way to increase serotonin is to use an SSRI drug like escitalopram. There are other SSRI drugs. There are non-drug therapy options such as Mindfulness and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy.

Using Mindfulness, the practice of bringing the mind back to the present moment and focusing on the inhale and exhale of breathing, we can learn to listen to our body’s real experiences. Practicing body scan and meditation are methods to train the mind-body system.  Various meditation practices include: sitting, yoga, walking, swimming, counting, chanting a mantra and other techniques.

The primary purpose of the drugs and non-drug therapy is to switch off the fight or flight syndrome while focusing the mind and body on the present moment. Instead of letting the mind wander and imagine things that send signals to the body to react, meditation is a way to calm the mind and relax the body. SSRI drugs do the same thing by increasing the amount of serotonin in the brain.

Climate Change and Geoengineering

There is no legitimate system of governance that would be able to make decisions about implementation of geoengineering to either reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or reduce solar radiation penetrating past the stratosphere.

A rogue nation, corporation or wealthy individual could implement geoengineering and America might respond with fighter jets being scrambled to take down tanker jets sent aloft to spray aerosols, or taking out balloons carrying up hoses to do the same thing.

Climate Change and Intergenerational Evil

Climate Change

The world that has been created since World War Two is quickly coming to an end. This video pulls together information from different scientific sources, religion and ethics into a powerful statement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1HpkCiOaiI

Baby Boomers will pick up this moral principle and justify significant sacrifices, there will be Wars to be fought, evil and enemies, good and heroes, and just like we survived WWII, there will be many believing the end of the world will happen but humans will survive as a species.

The bad news is that over one billion people will die before the worst is over by 2028.The good news is that America will not be where very many people will die.

The Fourth Turning and the 2012 Election

Reading Neil Howe’s blog posts after the 2012 election (http://blog.lifecourse.com/2012/11/in-the-aftermath-of-12/) and thinking about the transformation taking place at the beginning of the Fourth Turning has helped me develop a strategic perspective of the change in values that has taken place.  While everyone attempts to explain why Obama won and why Romney lost using demographics about minorities, women and young voters, they miss the main point. The 2012 election demonstrated that individual achievement and personal responsibility, championed by conservatives and Republican politicians, has faded to second place behind community values.

Hurricane Sandy gave us a visual of a President concerned about community.  Romney's efforts to look concerned fell flat. Pundits say that Hurricane Sandy helped decide the outcome of the election however it was not the media coverage or Obama acting presidential.  Hurricane Sandy was an example of local, state and federal government acting to protect, rescue and provide services to the community.

To the extent that the Republicans think they can recruit Latinos to their conservative values and win an election, they are wrong. They will not win an election until after the Fourth Turning is completed because the Democrats have locked up the key value now at the top of everyones mind for the next 16 years - community.

As one conservative pundit said in 2009: The campaign that brought Obama into the White House will require the “individual” to be sacrificed on the altar of “community.”  Well, that is a negative way of describing exactly what has happened. However this is a cyclical transformation that will swing back toward individualism after the Fourth Turning. http://www.khouse.org/articles/2009/883/

Sustainability appeals to liberals and Democrats because of the focus on community. Climate change issues lift up the community in terms of jobs, energy independence and economic growth.

In the future, I am thinking that my actions should include engaging my neighbors in community activities that appeal to them. Community solar project - the community contracting for solar energy from panels installed on the roof of the local school.  Disaster preparedness with neighbors pooling our tools and resources to help each other in case of an emergency and not waiting until it happens.

Republican Myths

Individualism

The emphasis by the Republican Party on individual achievement is an example of a legitimizing myth.  Republicans believe individual achievement automatically confers power and authority. Republicans believe their policies are legitimate because their individual achievements confer power and authority over everyone else. Individual success in a business of any size merits respect and legitimizes that person’s social dominance over others. Governor Romney, the Republican candidate for President in 2012, was an example of this myth.

“Republicans emphasize the role of free markets and individual achievement as the primary factors behind economic prosperity. To this end, they favor laissez-faire economics, fiscal conservatism, and the promotion of personal responsibility over welfare programs.”[1]

The focus on personal responsibility and individual achievement produce the illusion of fairness.  The Republican Party legitimizes this myth with their promotion of policies that attack government spending, the national debt and the annual deficit while promoting private investment and commercial enterprise.  Voters are hoping that conservatives will follow through on their promises to restrain government spending, reduce regulation and avoid tax increases.

“It's not just a matter of ideological rigidity but a recognition that at a time of economic stagnation and explosive debt, the nation's best chance for success lies with policies of lower taxes, fewer regulations and reduced spending.”[2]

Taxes and the Economy

“The richest Americans are the least likely to spend extra money they get as a result of a tax cut, and are more likely to save it or invest it offshore. Those on the lower end of the economic spectrum, meanwhile, are the most likely to spend transfer payments they receive from the government.”[3]

Thomas L. Hungerford of the Congressional Research Service, authored a report on taxes and the economy that looked at the economy and tax rates since 1945.[4]

“The results of the analysis suggest that changes over the past 65 years in the top marginal tax rate and the top capital gains tax rate do not appear correlated with economic growth. The reduction in the top tax rates appears to be uncorrelated with saving, investment, and productivity growth. The top tax rates appear to have little or no relation to the size of the economic pie.

However, the top tax rate reductions appear to be associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution. As measured by IRS data, the share of income accruing to the top 0.1% of U.S. families increased from 4.2% in 1945 to 12.3% by 2007 before falling to 9.2% due to the 2007-2009 recession. At the same time, the average tax rate paid by the top 0.1% fell from over 50% in 1945 to about 25% in 2009. Tax policy could have a relation to how the economic pie is sliced—lower top tax rates may be associated with greater income disparities.”[4]

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)
2. http://washingtonexaminer.com/election-2012-drawing-the-wrong-conclusions-in-advance/article/2512243#.UJGlZkJqjHg
3. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/congressional-research-service_n_2059156.html
4. http://www.docstoc.com/docs/134693051/CRS-Report-Top-Tax-Rates

Romney Lying for the Lord

Lying for the Lord is a Mormon tradition.

Mitt Romney during first Presidential debate said:
"I'm used to people saying something that's not always true, but just keep on repeating it and ultimately hoping I'll believe it."
Romney described exactly what happens in the Mormon faith when members are asked to repeat statements over and over again until they believe them.  He thinks it is OK to say things that aren't true, keep repeating them, and hoping the voters will believe it.